KEENELAND HORSE RACING APRIL 9

It looks chalky out there. 
The weather may be a factor, but most likely, we're going to see a lot of low prices.
Win chances vary greatly by race but in general they are:

• First listed 28%
• Second listed 18%
• Third listed 14%
• Fourth listed 10%

If odds are listed, they are the expected tote board odds.
The points are meant to peak around 50, indicating the very best class of horses.
A horse that is more than 3 points lower than the favorite has a very poor chance of winning.

BET ALL: 38 BETS, $76.00
RETURN: $93.40

RACE ONE
#7-DAN THE GO TO MAN 41 >8/5
#4-DIVINE WARRIOR 38
#2-TORONTES 38 $17.00

RACE TWO'
#1-LIMOUSINE LIBERAL 48  >8/5 $3.40
#5-NILE OF THE HUNTER 47
#2-TWO WEEKS OFF 47

RACE THREE
This race and the next one have dominant favorites.
#10-LLANITA 40 >1/2
#12-NO FAULT 36
#7-PRINCESS SILVIA 28 $32.00

RACE FOUR
#1-MUTARAAMY 43 > 9/5
#4-FACTION CAT 39

RACE FIVE
#2-SYMPATHY 42 >9/5
#5-DEA 41
#12-BAI BAI BABY 40
#11-COLLEGE HOLLY 39

RACE SIX THE ASHLAND G1
#3-CATHRYN SOPHIA 50 >9/5
#4-RACHEL'S VALENTINA 50 >5/2
#5-CARINA MIA 47

RACE SEVEN, COMMONWEALTH G3
#9-HOLY BOSS 51 >5/2
#2-READY FOR RYE 50 >5/2
#1-CLEARLY NOW 49 >6/1

RACE EIGHT, SHAKERTOWN STAKES SPRINT
I cannot figure why the Morning Line hates the #11 at a 50/1 level. This is his first grass race, but he's won four times in eight tries, including two on the artificial surface. I'd guess the  bettors will drag him down to 15/1, but even at that he's a bargain.
#10-UNDRAFTED 52 > 2/1$9.00
#11-WOODLAND WALK 50 >15/1

RACE NINE, THE MADISON G1
Now here's a truly competitive race
#12-STOPCHARGING MARIA 54 > 4/1
#3-WAVELL AVENUE 53 >6/1
#4-SUNDAY RULES 53 > 8/1
#2-SHEER DRAMA 52 >10/1$8.40

RACE TEN, THE BLUEGRASS G1
#4-ZULU 50 >5/2
#14-MY MAN SAM 47 >4/1
#7-LAOBAN 47 >6/1
#2-DONEGAL MOON 47 >15/1
#6-BRODY'S CAUSE 44 > 9/1 $10.40

RACE ELEVEN
#5-REBELLE 38 > 3/2
#6-ALWAYS RIGHT 35 $13.20
#13-SHE'S SO FINE 35

HORSE RACING, GULFSTREAM, APRIL 2, FLORIDA DERBY DAY

[ ^ means expected tote, and is not intended as an indicator of fair odds.]

$68 bet all, 8 winners, $59.20 return

RACE ONE
(PICK3: 11*5 with 10 with 1*2*3*5*7 $10)
11-ARIPEKA 49 ^5/2 fair $6.80
5- GOLD SHIELD 45 (6/1 ML)
Shug come backer could score.
---------
8-INDIAN GUIDE 42
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE TWO
10-GEH SCHNELL 34 (12/1 ML)
Has been facing better than these
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE THREE
Best longshot race on the card.
1-RASTA RANT 42 ^3/1 fair
2-WILDCAT WISH 40 ^7/1 $7.20
3-COALMINER 40 ^4/1 $5.80
5-MACH MY DAY 40 ^11/1
7-JAMIE'S DANCER 39 ^11/1 fair
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE FOUR
Pass
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE FIVE, SKIPAWAY GRADE 3
Valid's top competitors have no graded races.
Expected tote: 1/2
5-VALID 53 ^1/2 $2.80
Rarely misses at Gulfstream
-------------------
1-TEAM COLORS 50 $3.00
Muddy win, layoff, class rise.
6-SAVOY STOMP 46
Wins and steps up in class.
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE SIX
(Pick3 9*11*4 with 7*5 with 1*4*8 $18)
9-CONQUEST STORMY 39 ^2/1 fair
Nice debut, time off.
11-GRAND NUENCO 37 ^20/1 fair
Breather after lousy race, sharp works.
4-TITANIUM HEART 37 ^17/1
Good closer, still learning
10-BERLINER 36 ^ 9/5
Could win, but not worth cheap price.

]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE SEVEN
7-OFF THE TRACKS 46 ^4/5
5-GOMO 44 ^8/1
O'Neil, not the best layoff trainer.
------------------
3-GO MAGGIE GO 42 $10.00
1-PAOLA QUEEN 40 $5.60
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE EIGHT
1-ALL INCLUDED 49 ^2/1
4-LONG ON VALUE 49 ^10/1
8-REPORTING STAR 49 ^7/1 $19.00

---------------------------
7-FORCE THE PASS 47 ^3/2 Bad bet
Layoff, and not even close to being best here.
5-SKY CAPTAIN 47 ^15/1
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE NINE
Pass
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE TEN
(Pick3 3*5 with 1*4*6 with 4*6*5 $18)
6-ANCHOR DOWN 51 ^2/1
3-GRAND SHORES 50 ^9/1 $9.40
5-DEFER HEAVEN 48 ^2/1
-----------------------------------
2-YOURDREAMSORMINE 45
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE ELEVEN
(Pick4 1*4*6* with 4*6*5 with 1*4 with 4*9) $36
1-CRISOLLES 48
4-PHOTO CALL 47 $2.00
6-MAXIMOVA 47
--------------
2-CELESTINE 46
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE TWELVE, THE HONEY FOX GRADE 2
(Pick3 4*6*5 with 1*4*7 with 4*9 $18)
4-SANDIVA 49 ^8/5
6-LADY LARA 47 ^5/2
5-TAMMY THE TORPEDO 47 ^6/1
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE THIRTEEN, THE PAN AMERICAN GRADE 2
1-KAIGUN 49 ^7/2 fair $7.60
4-GRAND TITO 48 ^5/2
-------------------------
Expect 8/5 odds and very bad bet.
7-WAKE FOREST 45 ^8/5 $4.00
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE FOURTEEN, FLORIDA DERBY
3/2 on each obvious horse would be fair.
But there's no way you'll get those odds.
"Never bet the hype horse."
4-NYQUIST 51 $4.40
9-MOHAYMEN 50
--------
2-FELLOWSHIP 44 ^ 8/1
7-TAKEITOTHEEDGE 44 ^10/1
3-MAJESTO 41 ^25/1 $11.00
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

HORSE RACING, FAIR GROUNDS, MARCH 26

RESULT: 49 PICKS, $98 BET-ALL
10 WINS 23%
RETURN $91 
($468 rolling pick-3, return $523)

RACE ONE
11-AIRBROOKE =85+9
Improving every race.
2-OPEN INTEREST =61
7-LIL OFF CENTER =60
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE TWO, STAR GUITAR
1-SUNBEAN =111+8 $3.00
Sharp works, speed on rail 13-for-22 career.
4-ONE KING'S MAN 105+1
3-STORMDRIVER =103+4
2-NEXT EVENT =103+1
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE THREE
6-NO DISTORTION =100+14 $3.60
$1 exacta paid $9.80
Always in stretch battle, will get lucky some time.
7-AIKEN'S ALLEY =89+6
9-AZTEC SENSE =87+6 place $5.00
$27 pick-3= 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE FOUR
2-BELOMOR =102+6
Front runner, may weaken late.
6-LET US BE GLAD =99+18 $2.20
Primed for layoff win.
10- NEXT EVENT =97+17
Good form and jockey.
9 -TRUE FLAT =97+9
Lousy turf trainer
$36 pick-3 = $12
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE FIVE
5-SEA VOW =99+9
4-for7 and early speed.
8-ICY GENTELMAN =96+11
4-for 8 and speedy.
1-MAGEEZ =101
Blow out win, but will be buried on rail.
11-HUNKER DOWN =90
$48 pick-3 = 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE SIX
7-TUTTIPAESI =113+15
Bill Mott mare has won off layoff before.
5-CASH CONTROL =106+9
4-STOUPINATOR=104
$24 pick-3 = 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE SEVEN, NEW ORLEANS HANDICAP
(Best longshot race on the card.)
4-MAJESTIC HARBOR =118
Just won a G3
10- EAGLE =115+4
Fabulous route jock, but unproven at distance.
3-JESSICA'S STAR =112
Versatile, good jockey and 12/1
9-FREESTYLER =112+5
10 wins but none at the distance.
8-MOBILE BAY =111+2
2-for-4 at the distance
1-INTERNATIONAL STAR =110+3
John R + 4-for-5 at FG.
$40 pick-3 = 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE EIGHT, THE MUNIZ
3-CAN'T HELP BELIEVING =117+2
4-CHOCOLATE RIDE =115+17
Seems unbeatable but has lost 9 times, so...
1-TAKE THE STAND =111 $18.00
$1 exacta $46.60
2-ROMAN APPROVAL =111+6
10-WORLD APPROVAL 111+6 place $4.60
$30 pick-3 = 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE NINE, THE OAKS
8-LAND OVER SEA =107+7 $5.60
Closer, loves to place.
4-STAGEPLAY =104+14
Just met first failure in a G2.
2-MIDNIGHT ON OCONEE =102+6
6-STREET FANCY = 100+6
$40 pick 3 = 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE TEN, THE DERBY
6 MO TOM =110+6
Late charger has't missed the money yet.
2-GREENPOINTECRUSADER =110+2
Biggest win was in slop, so...
1-GUN RUNNER =110+2 $9.80
3-for-4 with G2 win.
$36 Pick-3 = $182
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE ELEVEN
5-TOO DIM =112+1
10-HETAI =112+19
16 wins, layoff with excellent prospects.
1-JOCKAMO'S SONG =102+3 $15.80
$36 pick-3 = $126
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE TWELVE
8-JET BLACK MAGIC =102+7 place $3.00
In the money all seven tries.
2-OUR LADY ALLIE =97+7 $5.20
$1 exacta $6.80
Never a bad race.
1-THEGOODWITCH =89
9-AUNT NELLIE =87
$48 pick-3 = $120
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE THIRTEEN
12-SWEET ACCLAIM =103+22 $7.00
A long time off and a big drop in class. Many doubts.
6 MERCER MILL MAE =94
4-WALKING THE KITTEN =94+12
5-JOKASA =89+1
$48 pick-3 = $50
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE FOURTEEN
5 OUR WILD DANCER =86+7
Albert Stall and best speed last race.
6-SOUTHERN ARGUMENT =83+2
13 CLASSIC SOPO =76
9 CARMENS CATCHER 76 $20.80
$64 pick-3 = $53

OAKLAWN PARK, REBEL DAY, MARCH 19, HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING FREE

]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

Expected (long term) win percentages:

• Rank 1: 38%
• Rank 2: 23% 
• Rank 3: 12% 
• Rank 4: 8% 
• Rank 5: 8% 

]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE ONE
8-CLASSIC ARCH 85
Mild drop, gotta score some day
9-SUN TSYZY 85
Obviously fit off last mile
11-SALLY'S NEWS 82
Got braver in last race
3-MAJESTIC MEGAN 78
Big drop may help

RACE TWO
1-WRATH OF RUTHIE 99
4/5 ML, and many questions
WIN 2/5
4-SWING IT DISH 98
Been racing way over her head.
PLACE 8/1
7-NORTHERN CONNECT 96
Meet easier; 20/1 juicy
5-FICTIONALITY 96
Ditto above, at 12/1

RACE THREE
6-LIMONTE 95
Big, hidden class drop
PLACE AT 5/1
8-LOCKER ROOM GUY 91
Assmussen claim and drop

RACE FOUR
11-BRILLIANT BELLE 81
Just missed after stumble start
4-PRETTY GREELY 79
Keeps Calvin, traffic last time
9-SKI TUNE 77
Meh. Long layoff, second race.
10-HEART OF A RANGER 76
Big class jump after just-miss.
PLACE AT 10/1
1-FAIRWAYGREEN 76
Placed debut, class jump now.

RACE FIVE
2-RHETORICAL 103
Sharp connections and win last
6-NOW AND ZEN 96
Tough at Oaklawn
10-SPANISH JAZZ 96
Powerful closer

RACE SIX
10-MY PAL PAUL 106
5/1 ML looks good
9-UNBRIDELD OUTLAW 100
Drop to claimer will help
PLACE AT 5/2

RACE SEVEN, THE AZERI GII
Time for a simple, straight trifecta?
7-UNTAPABLE 123
A monster in here
JUST MISSED AT 2/5
1-CALL PAT 109
The late charger
WIN AT 5/1
5-MESHELL 108
10-for-11 show chance

RACE EIGHT
1X-LOOKS TO SPARE 120
Classy, but questionable after layoff.
2 SMACK SMACK 113
8-for-20 career
6-FAR RIGHT 113
3-for-5 at OP
7-UPSTART 108
Ranks too low to be favored.
WIN AT 5/2

RACE NINE
7-KISS 92
Morning line fave
11-COTTON CLUB CUTIE 88
15/1 ML would be a bargain

RACE TEN (THE REBEL)
The Southwest contenders at it again
12-SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 110
Won Southwest
8-AMERICAN DUBAI 106
Showed in Southwest at 20/1
10-WHITMORE 106
Placed in Southwest
4-CUPID 101
7/2 too low for maiden winner
WIN AT 5/2

RACE ELEVEN
2-GOATS TOWN 97
PLACE 7/2
5-AMERICAN PIONEER 97
WIN 3/2
10-COLONEL DAN 97
FOURTH 5/1
7-BURNTWOOD 90
SHOW 9/1
$2 EXACTA BOX $9
$2 TRIFECTA $58
$24 SUPER $213

OAKLAWN FEB. 6.

10	0.4	2.4	29%
2	1.5	4	48%
9	3.6	7	60%
7	3.9	7	72%
5	5.8	15	78%
3	6.6	15	84%
8	7.0	20	89%
1	8.0	26	93%
6	8.2	26	96%
4	8.3	26	100%
5	-0.3	2.3	30%
1	1.3	4	49%
6	3.7	7	61%
3	3.7	7	74%
7	5.4	15	80%
8	5.8	15	86%
4	6.0	15	93%
9	8.1	19	98%
2	10.0	39	100%
3	-0.3	2.4	30%
6	3.3	7	42%
4	6.0	7	54%
2	9.2	7	67%
10	5.0	15	73%
8	5.7	15	79%
1	6.3	15	85%
7	6.2	19	90%
9	6.3	19	95%
5	7.2	19	100%
1	-0.2	3	29%
2	0.5	4	50%
4	0.6	4	72%
7	0.9	4	92%
3	3.6	10	100%
6	6.5	27	104%
5	14.2	111	105%
3	0.4	1.7	37%
9	2.7	4	55%
4	5.6	12	63%
11	5.9	12	71%
6	8.1	21	75%
12	8.4	21	80%
2	8.9	21	85%
10	9.4	21	89%
1	11.7	32	92%
8	13.8	32	95%
5	14.0	32	98%
7	26.5	64	100%
4	0.2	2.4	31%
2	2.1	8	42%
6	2.4	8	54%
7	5.2	8	65%
8	3.6	10	75%
3	4.3	13	82%
5	4.5	13	89%
10	4.6	13	96%
1	7.9	28	99%
9	9.2	42	102%
5	-0.5	2.4	29%
1	0.3	3.1	53%
4	1.6	6	68%
7	2.3	9	78%
3	2.8	9	87%
2	3.2	9	97%
6	9.1	51	99%
8	13.0	102	100%

GULFSTREAM AND OAKLAWN, JANUARY 30

ONE
Good longshot turf race. Only #1 and #7 ignorable.
In order of preference: 4-3-6-2-8-9-5@9.30
TOP: 4 ... SLR: 3

TWO
Pass
Hard to play away from the #8, daughter of Curlin's debut with Pletcher/Castellano
If you don't like the first-timer, the preference is 2-1-4, especially the #2.
TOP, SLR: 2
Scratch of #2 makes #8 a prohibitive favorite


THREE
Exacta $3
#2 Cathryn Sophia the obvious monster daughter of Street Sense
She looks like the best single of the day. Win @0.10
#4 Island Saint, the main danger based on last blazer at GP
TOP, SLR: 2 Place at 5.00

FOUR
#3 Awsome Banner, obvious. Win @.90
#1 Ready Dancer, strong at 8/1
I wouldn't go any deeper.
TOP, SLR: 3

FIVE
#7 Conquest Daddyo could dominate.
Underneath: 6-3-4-2 Win @19.40
TOP, SLR: 7

SIX
#1 Sea Coast may be chalk, but it's a tough race.
4-8-6 win at 5.10 -2-11 all are true contenders.
#11 Aljalela also figures as crowd favorite
#6 Sawyer has best speed last race.
TOP: 1 ... SLR 6

SEVEN
Maiden pass

EIGHT
Best horses are bookends in the gate:
#1 Conquest Typhoon
# 14 Best Bard 
Don't dismiss: 6-5-13 win at 8.10
TOP:14... SLR: 1

NINE
Maiden pass

TEN Sweetest Chant S.
#9 Ami's Mesa
#2 Sapphire Kitten
Also consider 6 win at 4.70 -12-7
#3 Born to Be Winner SLR pick if more than10/1 Show at 71/1
Paid $21.
TOP: 9 ... SLR: 3

ELEVEN The Holy Bull
Exacta $3
#2 Mohaymen obviously chalk. Win at .30
5-4 also worth a look.
TOP, SLR: 2

TWELVE
11 Social Stranger the likely chalk
Don't dismiss: 3-4 win at 11.00 -9-13
TOP, SLR 11
But 9-3 in virtual tie for SLR


OAKLAWN

Horses in order of preference.

ONE
#10 (S, TR) 31% first after claim ... 2/7 at OP
#1A Dull at OP
#3 is 9 years old, 1/11 at OP
#4 Dull at OP Win at 2.70
#9 (TR) 12% layoff.

TWO
#5
#3
#7
#9  (S, L) Layoff 25%.. 1/2 this class
#6 (TR) New trainer 10% .. 1/8 this class.
#4
#8 Win at 5.00 
#11 (L) Layoff 10%..0/7 this class

THREE
Exacta $11
#4 (L) first drop into claiming Win at $4.00
#5 (S) layoff, class jump
#3 drop, 9% layoff, lasix
#8 18% on drop to claim

FOUR 
Lost
9 (S, L) RSA: 89
8 (L)
11 

4 (L) 32% layoff

7 (L) 16% layoff

FIVE
Pass

SIX
7
5 (TR) Win at 4.00
3
1 (L)
12
9 (L)
2
10
6
4 (S, TR)

SEVEN
12 (L)
3 (S) Win at 7.80

1 (L)

9 (L)

4 (TR)

8 (TR)

EIGHT
5 Win at $1.00
3 (S, L)
1
4
2 (L)

8 (L)

7 (TR)

NINE
Exacta $14, Trifecta $172
1 (S) Win at 2.20
2
12
4
9 

6 (L)

8 (L)

A QUEER DUCK

RACE ONE
#5 SMILING JOHN (38) Listed at 6/5, but only has a 3/2 chance.
#1-2-3-6 would be attractive at 10/1, but they are unlikely to drift that high.
#4 has a very small shot.
This is the kind of race where it'll be hard to find any advantage.
#6 wins at 11/1. You can go home a winner now.

RACE THREE
#2 BETWEEN THE LINES (43) is the best, but a bad bet under 3/1
As a 26% favorite, he's likely to be beat.
Any of the other runners can be considered if over 10/1
Watch especially #3 DRUM ROLL, listed at 20/1. He's about 12/1 really.
#2 wins at 5/2.
 #3 pays better, showing at 23/1.

RACE FIVE
#5 WAKE UP IN MALIBU (43) a 36% favorite listed at 5/2.
That would be a nice play.
Longshots in order of probability: #4,1,3,8. Minimum 8/1 on those.
#1 wins at 5/1

RACE SEVEN
#2 FRISKY MAGICIAN  only has a 24% chance, aka 3/1
No horse would be a surprise in the winner's circle.
Minimum price on the long shots should be 10/1
#1 wins at 10/1. 4 horses were over 10/1 on the board.

RACE EIGHT, THE QUEENS COUNTY STAKES
#3 KID CRUZ (49) is an overwhelming favorite.
He should be 3/5 and has about a 60% chance.
#2 and #6 might be worth a flyer if greater than 5/1
#4 TOMMY MACHO will be overplayed as a result of a sloppy fig.
Some nice exotics could be played leaving him off or down-ticket.
#3 shows at 5/2