Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Thursday, April 07, 2016

KEENELAND HORSE RACING APRIL 9

It looks chalky out there. 
The weather may be a factor, but most likely, we're going to see a lot of low prices.
Win chances vary greatly by race but in general they are:

  • First listed 28%
  • Second listed 18%
  • Third listed 14%
  • Fourth listed 10%
If odds are listed, they are the expected tote board odds.
The points are meant to peak around 50, indicating the very best class of horses.
A horse that is more than 3 points lower than the favorite has a very poor chance of winning.

BET ALL: 38 BETS, $76.00
RETURN: $93.40

RACE ONE
#7-DAN THE GO TO MAN 41 >8/5
#4-DIVINE WARRIOR 38
#2-TORONTES 38 $17.00

RACE TWO'
#1-LIMOUSINE LIBERAL 48  >8/5 $3.40
#5-NILE OF THE HUNTER 47
#2-TWO WEEKS OFF 47

RACE THREE
This race and the next one have dominant favorites.
#10-LLANITA 40 >1/2
#12-NO FAULT 36
#7-PRINCESS SILVIA 28 $32.00

RACE FOUR
#1-MUTARAAMY 43 > 9/5
#4-FACTION CAT 39

RACE FIVE
#2-SYMPATHY 42 >9/5
#5-DEA 41
#12-BAI BAI BABY 40
#11-COLLEGE HOLLY 39

RACE SIX THE ASHLAND G1
#3-CATHRYN SOPHIA 50 >9/5
#4-RACHEL'S VALENTINA 50 >5/2
#5-CARINA MIA 47

RACE SEVEN, COMMONWEALTH G3
#9-HOLY BOSS 51 >5/2
#2-READY FOR RYE 50 >5/2
#1-CLEARLY NOW 49 >6/1

RACE EIGHT, SHAKERTOWN STAKES SPRINT
I cannot figure why the Morning Line hates the #11 at a 50/1 level. This is his first grass race, but he's won four times in eight tries, including two on the artificial surface. I'd guess the  bettors will drag him down to 15/1, but even at that he's a bargain.
#10-UNDRAFTED 52 > 2/1$9.00
#11-WOODLAND WALK 50 >15/1

RACE NINE, THE MADISON G1
Now here's a truly competitive race
#12-STOPCHARGING MARIA 54 > 4/1
#3-WAVELL AVENUE 53 >6/1
#4-SUNDAY RULES 53 > 8/1
#2-SHEER DRAMA 52 >10/1$8.40

RACE TEN, THE BLUEGRASS G1
#4-ZULU 50 >5/2
#14-MY MAN SAM 47 >4/1
#7-LAOBAN 47 >6/1
#2-DONEGAL MOON 47 >15/1
#6-BRODY'S CAUSE 44 > 9/1 $10.40

RACE ELEVEN
#5-REBELLE 38 > 3/2
#6-ALWAYS RIGHT 35 $13.20
#13-SHE'S SO FINE 35

No comments: