Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Friday, November 07, 2014

FREE HORSE RACING PICKS, CHURCHILL NOV. 8

Three worthy favorites today, in the 3rd, 4th and 6th.  Since they're more or less bunched, that would make for some economical pick-type plays using the "A" horses as singles.
The other races are longshot affairs.
The rules: bet all "A" horses at 1/1 or above.
Won $1360 for $1380 bet

RACE 1
2-Jacksoncountyflash A 1.50
5-Regal Joanne B
8-Any Given Chance A 2.10
Two "A" horses means the favorite's a bad bet.
Bet 'em both = $310 for $200.

RACE 2
6-Do I Dare A place 7.20
1-Electric Temptress B 1.10
$1 exacta paid $15 for $8 ticket.
Exactas $150 for $80 ticket.
3-Parc Celeste B
4-Bettina Brugge B
5-Hurricane Laila B
#6 is our longshot of the day, listed at 15/1, but we seriously doubt that will hold at the windows. True odds are probably 8-1. This horse is a speedster coming off a miserable turf showing. But the three efforts before that were good finishes against long odds. He does tend to place, so W/P might be the wisest play, along with a few exacta boxes.

RACE 3
1-Four Lakes: A win $1.60
Win $260 for $100
#1 big drop, worthy favorite

RACE 4
1-Sky Hero: A win 1.00
Win $200 for $100
6-Jack Tripp: B
#1 a worthy favorite.

RACE 5
2-Luce Maria: A win 1.90
6-Something Blue: A .90 pass
7-Wonderful Miss Be: A
Bet 2-7: $290 for $200.
A long shot race, with three contenders of equal talent.

RACE 6
2-Premier Steps: A show 3.40
6-Smartyfly: B
7-Corporate Culture: B
#2 is a worthy favorite, with a significant advantage.
Lose $100

RACE 8
8-Devious d'Oro: A
6-Sassy Kiss: A 1.90 pass
2-Twenty Three Darby: A win 9.50
4-You Bought Her: A
A real tossup with 4 fast fillies
Win $1050 for $300

RACE 9: RIVER CITY G-3
2-Gentleman's Kitten: A
4-Villandry: A win 4.30
6-Silver Max: B
9-Aldous Snow: A
Win $530 for $300

Silver Max, who wins nearly half his races, is listed as the 7/5 favorite. However, The Loose Horse rates the #2, #4 and #6 as legitimate contenders. Silver Max's odds are far too low considering there are three horses who have a decent chance to beat him.
Silver Max is a compulsive front runner who has wired races in astonishing times. But that was last year. His 2014 campaign has not been brilliant. And the only time he tried this 9-furlong distance, he finished out of the money.
Could he win? Sure. But at short odds, we're betting he will lead but won't last.
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We've skipped the junker races, 7 and 10.

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