Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Thursday, October 30, 2014

BREEDER'S CUP... FREE HANDICAPPING AND RACE ANALYSIS

BREEDER’S CUP DAY SANTA ANITA
This A-B-C method has been tested over thousands of races and has produced a small profit. A lone A horse in a race might be worth backing as the favorite. If there's more than one A, or more than a couple of B's, you're looking at a longshot race.
Most of the races here are just too competitive for chalk play. There are a few exceptions, as noted. But patient longshot players may do all right.
If you've got nine races to play, catching even one longshot winner could put you in positive territory for the day. Playing a couple of long shots per race might be a worthy strategy too. 
For pick players, it's high risk, high reward. But I'd look at Race Five as a pivot,  since using its 3 A horses might pare down an otherwise ghastly expensive ticket. For instance, using only A horses in Races 4-5-6 requires only a $6 base ticket.

BREEDER'S CUP BET ALL: $314 WIN FOR $228 BET.
LOOSE HORSE BET ALL: $55 WIN FOR $73 BET
Not a great day for the Loose Horse.
When the favorites don't dominate, chaos reigns!


RACE ONE
2-year-olds downhill. Why bother?

RACE TWO
1-Acceptance 29 A WIN $3.40
Probably the only legit favorite running today.

RACE THREE OFF THE TURF
13-Ageless 29 A
2-Biorythm 28 B
3-Stars Above Me 28 B
4-Velvet Mesquite 28 B
5-Gender Agenda 28 B
6-Richie’s Party Girl 28 B
9-Liandudno 28 B
There isn’t much to differentiate these 7 horses, suggesting we look for a longshot at 8-1 or better. Ageless is facing too much talent to deserve low odds.

RACE FOUR Juvenile Fillies
Not as loaded as the other races, but still the #1 and #2 horses are roughly equal in ability, so neither would deserve low odds. I’d look for 4-1 on the A, and 6-1 on the B.
1-Feathered 29 A
2-Angela Renee 29 A
4-Conquest Eclipse 28 B
10- Wonder Girl 28 B
6-Take Charge Brandi (X) $125.40

RACE FIVE F&M 10-furlong turf
I’m discarding the Euros here and elsewhere, since they don’t win more than their share of races, and I’m looking for an edge. There are three A-strong horses here, so I’d hope for 6-1 on one of them.
1-Abaco 30 A
2-Just the Judge 30 A
3-Dank 30 A
4-Day at the Spa 29 B WIN $13.00

RACE SIX F&M sprint
If Artemis weakens, there are five willing and able to take over. I’d look for 7-1 among the B horses.
5-Artemis Agrotera 30 A
1-Sweet Reason 29 B
3-Stonetastic 29 B
4-Thank You Marylou 29 B
6-Leigh Court 29 B
9-Better Lucky 29 B
7-Judy the Beauty (X) WIN 8.20

RACE SEVEN Downhill Turf sprint
Maybe Caspar is a legit favorite, still, the quirky nature of this race suggests a scan of the B horses for equally quirky odds.
13-Caspar Netscher 30 A
3-Street Swap 29 B
4-Tightend Touchdown 29 B
10-Home Run Kitten 29 B
6-Bobby's Kitten (X) WIN $16.40

RACE EIGHT Juvenile boys
Could go to the chalk, since if Upstart can shake Daredevil, he might romp over those C horses.
13-Upstart 30 A
12-Daredevil 29 B
5-American Pharoah 28 C
9-Carpe Diem 28 C
7-Texas Red (X) win 29.80

RACE NINE 12 furlong turf
Lots of B horses, any of which could give Telescope trouble with a good trip. 9-1 is where to start looking.
1-Telescope 31 A
2-Twilight Eclipse 30 B
3-Imaging 30 B
4-Brown Panther 30 B
8-Magician 30 B
11-Chiquita 30 B
12-Main Sequence 30 B win 14.40

RACE TEN Sprint
Wow! Three A horses and six B horses. This is super-longshot race. Can you get 6-1 on an A? If not, then at least 10-1 on a B.
6-Rich Tapestry 31 A
8-Palace 31 A
9-Saltuos Amigos 31 A
4-Secret Circle 30 B
5-Private Zone 30 B
7-Mico Margarita 30 B
10-Big Macher 30 B
11-Bakken 30 B
13 Work All Week 30 B WIN 40.20

RACE ELEVEN Turf mile
Summer Front may be worth a look as chalk. But against these heavy-hitters, that had best be at least 4-1. Otherwise, try a B horse at 8-1 or better.
10-Summer Front 31 A
2-Obviously 30 B
6-Tom’s Tribute 30 B
8-Trade Storm 30 B
11-Sayad 30 B
12-Seek Again 30 B
14-Karakontie (X) WIN $62.00

RACE TWELVE The Classic
The much hyped California Chrome is just another horse in with these. I’d look for 5-1 on the A horses and 9-1 on the B horses. None of these 7 would cause mass fainting should they enter the winner’s circle.
You’d need 5-1 on the A horses and 10-1 on the B.
7-Bayern 32 A WIN $6.20
2-Cigar Street 32 A
6-Shared Belief 32 A
4-Moreno 31 B
8-Zivo 31 B
12-Candy Boy 31 B
13-California Chrome 31 B

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