Churchill, May 3, Kentucky Oaks Day

Here are the Loose Horse Fair Odds for Churchill on Kentucky Oaks Day. 
The horse's program number is in green.
Following that is its Loose Horse rating, which ranges from 0-6 and measures the runners strength relative to the field. 
Next comes the expected win chance as a percent.
And finally, the Loose Horse estimate of the fair odds.

Race One is a chaos race and the minimum odds for the best horses range from 4-1 to 6-1. Although a low-odds horse may win a chaos race, over time, chalk bettors will lose horribly.

#1 paid 9/1, our price 9/2. Beat a 4/5 favorite.
$6 dutch = $21.

Race Three promises to be not so chaotic as the typical turf run,
with the #4 Moment of Majesty looking attractive at 5/2 or more.
#9 paid 6/1, our price 5/1. Beat a 3/2 favorite.
$6 dutch = $15

Race Four is a borderline chaos race, with three horses of more or less equal ability.#3 paid 6/1, our price 5/1, Beat a 2/1 favorite.

Race Six, the La Troienne, features the #3 More Chocolate, at 5/1 in the morning line, but 5/2 by our calculations.#2 paid 5/1, our price 5/1. Beat a 1/1 favorite.

Race Seven, The Edgewood, looks crazy chaotic, and the minimum bet on the best horses should be 6/1.#3 paid 3/1.

Race Eight, The Eight Belles.  Minimum 4/1 in a huge field with six horses of real ability.#9 7/1+ our price 8/1. Beat a 2/1 favorite.

Race Nine, the Alysheba. #4 Hymn Book would be playable above 3/1.  #9 Cybersecret maybe at 7/2. #6 Take Charge Indy and #8 Bourbon Courage are both worthy at 9/2 
#6 at 5/2.

Race Ten, The American. #4 Noble Tune would be a fair play at 3/1, but is likely to be pounded by the chalk artists. If so, somebody near the top of the list will offer fair odds. #4 wins at 3/2.

Race Eleven, the Oaks.  #8 Dreaming of Julia has a 70% chance, but is nearly certain to offer no value. Finding the place horse might be key to this race, and remember, as good as Julia is, she has a 30% chance to lose.
Won at 38/1 by #6.

CD1 2	6	21%	3.8
3	6	19%	4.4
1	5	17%	4.8
5	4	15%	5.8
6	4	14%	6.1
4	3	9%	9.7
8	1	5%	20.4
7	0	2%	49.0
CD3
4	6	29%	2.4
9	3	17%	4.9
1	2	13%	6.9
2	2	11%	8.5
6	2	11%	8.5
5	2	9%	9.6
3	1	5%	18.0
7	1	5%	18.0
8	0	2%	49.0
CD4
8	6	24%	3.2
1	5	22%	3.6
7	5	21%	3.8
3	4	15%	5.6
2	2	9%	10.4
4	2	9%	10.4
6	0	2%	49.0
9	0	2%	49.0
5	0	2%	61.5
CD6
3	6	29%	2.4
4	5	22%	3.6
5	4	19%	4.2
2	4	16%	5.1
6	3	14%	6.3
1	0	2%	49.0
7	0	2%	49.0
CD7
4	6	13%	6.7
5	6	13%	6.9
10	6	13%	6.9
2	5	11%	7.8
9	5	11%	8.2
3	5	10%	9.0
11	5	10%	9.0
1	4	9%	10.5
7	3	7%	12.5
6	2	3%	27.8
8	0	1%	99.0
CD8
14	6	20%	4.0
3	5	18%	4.6
2	4	14%	6.1
1	3	11%	7.8
9	3	11%	7.8
13	3	11%	7.8
8	1	5%	20.4
7	1	3%	29.0
11	1	3%	29.0
12	1	3%	36.5
4	0	1%	99.0
5	0	1%	99.0
6	0	1%	99.0
10	0	1%	99.0
CD9
4	6	25%	3.0
9	5	22%	3.6
6	4	18%	4.7
8	4	18%	4.7
7	3	11%	7.9
5	2	9%	10.4
1	0	2%	49.0
2	0	2%	49.0
3	0	2%	49.0
CD10
4	6	25%	2.9
12	3	15%	5.9
3	3	12%	7.5
2	2	9%	10.0
1	2	8%	11.2
5	2	7%	12.8
6	1	6%	14.7
8	1	6%	14.7
9	1	6%	14.7
10	1	3%	35.7
11	1	3%	35.7
7	0	2%	49.0
13	0	2%	49.0
CD11
8	6	71%	0.4
11	1	9%	10.3
1	0	2%	49.0
2	0	2%	49.0
3	0	2%	49.0
4	0	2%	49.0
5	0	2%	49.0
6	0	2%	49.0
7	0	2%	49.0
9	0	2%	49.0
10	0	2%	49.0