We listed Orb as the 4th best horse, so it really is no surprise that he won. At 5/1 we thought he was a very risky bet.
This year's Derby could not be more contentious. It is the ultimate "chaos race" so far this year.
The Loose Horse gives runners a letter grade and more importantly, estimated fair odds. The letter grades are intended to help exotics players.
In the win pool, players who only backed horses that went off at our posted fair odds basically eliminated the takeout. Players who played horses that did not meet their fair odds would have done very poorly. The database supporting these odds estimates is big enough to be statistically sound, encompassing more than 6,000 runners.
The Loose Horse gives runners a letter grade and more importantly, estimated fair odds. The letter grades are intended to help exotics players.
In the win pool, players who only backed horses that went off at our posted fair odds basically eliminated the takeout. Players who played horses that did not meet their fair odds would have done very poorly. The database supporting these odds estimates is big enough to be statistically sound, encompassing more than 6,000 runners.
Nobody knows who will win this or any other horse race. But it IS possible to identify horses that are good bets at certain odds points.
* Any bet under 8/1 is a bad bet. Yes, a winning bet can be a bad bet. If you take the 7/2 favorite in a race like this, you may win today, but you will lose horribly over time. There aren't many guarantees in life or in horse racing, but this is one of them: chalk players will get absolutely slaughtered betting the favorite in chaos races.
* A "dutch" on the top three, Goldencents, It's My Lucky Day, and Verrazano, has a 30% chance.
* There's very little difference in win chance among the top 7 horses. It would be absolutely no surprise to see any of the 7 wearing roses. Even though these 7 are clearly the best, there's a 37% chance that a horse rated "C" or worse will win.
* As half of a daily double, or as part of a pick three, taking the top 5 horses would give nearly a 50% chance of winning this part of the sequence.
* Horses rated "C" or "D" are not out of it. They can be good bets if the tote neglects them. If any of them goes off at 30-1 or so, that might be worth a hedge bet.
Based on early odds from Saturday morning, six of the top ten horses look playable. They're marked in red.
* Will Take Charge and Vyjack look like bargains for longshot players.
* It's My Lucky Day and Verrazano seem fairly priced among the best horses.
So here's a straight exacta shot 12-14/w/17-20.
# Grade W% Odds Horse
8 A 10% 8.7 Goldencents -- 6/1 early
12 A 10% 8.7 It's My Lucky Day -- 9/1 early
14 A 10% 9.3 Verrazano -- 9/1 early
16 B 9% 10.1 Orb -- 7/1 early
3 B 8% 11.0 Revolutionary -- 5/1 early
5 B 8% 11.5 Normandy Invasion -- 7/1 early
9 B 8% 11.5 Overanalyze -- 14/1 early
6 C 7% 14.0 My Lute -- 13/1 early
2 D 5% 17.8 Oxbow --23/1 early
17 D 5% 17.8 Will Take Charge -- 31/1 early
20 D 5% 20.4 Vyjack -- 35/1 early
10 D 4% 22.1 Palace Malice -- 24/1 early
19 x 3% 30.0 Java's War 23/1 early
15 x 3% 30.3 Charming Kitten
4 x 2% 59.0 Golden Soul
7 x 1% 99.0 Giant Finish
11 x 1% 99.0 Lines of Battle
13 x 1% 99.0 Falling Sky
18 x 1% 99.0 Frac Daddy
21 x 1% 99.0 Fear the Kitten
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