Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Wednesday, May 01, 2013

Loose Horse top picks since the Breeder's Cup

Here's a report card on our handicapping since the Breeder's Cup:

> Top picks that got our "A" rating:
975 horses, 26% winners, 89% return.

However, we don't play them just because they're the best horse in the race. Handicapping is about getting a fair price so let's look at:

>"A" horses who went off at "fair odds"
505 horses, 20% winners, 99% return.

A player getting a 4% rebate could turn that cash positive. But even for us cave-men in the simulcast room, there's a way to win. It does require patience, because it renders three out of every four "A" horses unplayable.

>"A" horses at "fair odds" of at least 2/1
249 horses, 24% winners, 107% return.

As a comparison to that last angle, we tracked 1600 horses in the same period who went off at between 2/1 and 5/1, without regard to our rating. The return on bet was only 80%. That odds range was comparable to what we were getting on these 249 "A" horses.

So yes, we've found a way to win, and we post our selections every Saturday.







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