Horse race handicapping, Hawthorne, April 27

Churchill may be damp today and Belmont is a parade of really difficult chaos races. I like to keep the guesswork to a minimum, and found found some playable races in Chicago...
Here are your fair odds (and for pick-players) percentages.

* Cheap doubles paid $46 for $40 (115%)
Dutch all at $1: $31 for $46 (67%)
Double all at $1: $87 for $122  (71%)


HAW One
#6 3/1 (25%)
#7 4/1 (20%)
Nobody else deserves under 8/1.
(Note that #3 has failed at low odds 10 straight times.)
If you take these two in the double, you'd have about a 40% chance of cashing the ticket. 6-7 w 3-4-6-7-8-10 = $12.
A P-3 would be expensive, with two chaos races following this one.
* Cheap double: 6 w 3-4-6-7-8-9-10 or $7 for a 20% chance.

HAW Two
Chaos race.
#3 8/1 (11%) Show $19.90
#4 8/1 (11%) $2.30
#6 8/1 (11%) Place $21.20
#7 8/1 (11%)
#8 6/1 (14%)
#9 8/1 (11%)
#10 5/1 (16%)
This is a real scramble. #4 Sporting Gent would be my play if the morning line of 8/1 holds. Which I doubt. At any rate, the trip and pace will decide the winner. Pick players would need all these to give them an 85% chance to "get through" this race.

HAW Three
Only 8 horses, but even more chaotic.
#2 7/1 (12%)
#6 6/1 (14%)
#4 9/1 (10%)
#6 7/1 (12%)
#7 7/1 (12%)
#8 9/1 (10%)
Nobody's dominant here and nobody deserves low odds.
The double and P-3 get interesting here, because the next two races are eminently playable.
Double: 2-6-4-6-7-8 w 2-4-9 = $18 and a 50% chance.
P-3 add 3-6-10 = $54 and a 40% chance.
* Cheap double: 2-6-4-7-8 w 4 = $5 and a 23% chance.

HAW Four
#2 5/1 (16%)
#4 2/1 (33%)
#9 5/1 (16%)
There's a 65% chance that pick players will survive with just these three on the ticket.
Double 2-4-9 w 1-5-7-9 $12 and a 50% chance.
P-3 add 3-6-10 = $36 and a 30% chance.
* Cheap double: 2-4-9 w 1-5 = $6 and a 30% chance

HAW Five
#1 3/1 (25%)
#5 3/1 (25%) $4.40
#7 7/1 (12%)
#9 4/1 (20%)
These four give an 80% chance to pick players.
Double: 1-5-7-9 w 3-6-10 or $12 with a 50% chance. Paid $27 for $12.
P-3  add 1-5-6-7-9 $60 with a 45% chance. Paid $63
P-5 starts here. 1-5-7-9 w 3-6-10 w 1-5-6-7-9 w 1-2-6-9-10 w 1-2-4-9
That would be a $1200 ticket with about a 20% shot. That ain't in my budget, but a good handicapper could trim the ticket without totally destroying the win chance.
*Cheap double: 9 w 3-6-10 $3 and a 15% chance.

HAW Six
#3 3/1 (25%)
#6 4/1 (20%)
#10 4/1 (20%) $2.20
A 65% shot with just these three.
Double: 3-6-10 w 1-5-6-7-9 $15 and a 60% shot. Paid $14
50-cent P5 begins here.
* Cheap double: 3 w 1-5-6-7-9 or $5 and a 20% chance.
Five & Six Dutch: $8.60 for $7
Double $27 for $12.

HAW Seven
#1 8/1 (11%)
#5 4/1 (20%)
#6 4/1 (20%)
#7 7/1 (11%)
#9 3/1 (25%) $1.80
Almost a 90% shot with these five horses.
Double: 1-5-6-7-9 w 1-2-9-10 $20 with a 60% shot. Paid $46.
50-cent P4 begins here.
5-6-9 w 6-1-9 w 1 w 1-6 = $9 with a 2% chance.
* Cheap double: 9 w 1-2-6-9-10 $5 for a 60% chance. Paid $46
Six & Seven Dutch: $6 for $8
Double $14 for $15
HAW Eight
Chaos
#1 6/1 (14%)
#2 10/1 (9%)
#6 9/2 (18%)
#9 6/1 (14%)
#10 7/1 (12%) 10.70
A 67% chance with these.
This and race ten are chaos races, making pick-plays more expensive and less reliable.
* Cheap double: 1-2-6-9-10 w 1 or $5 for a 45% chance.
Seven & Eight Dutch: $14.50 for $10
Double $46 for $20.

HAW Nine
#1 3/1 (25%)
#2 7/1 (12%)
#4 5/1 (16%)
#9 7/1 (12%)
A 65% chance with these.
The late double might offer a chance to take down some nice longshots.
Double 1-2-4-9 w 1-2-4-5-6-7-9 or $28 for a 60% chance.
* Cheap double: 4 w 1-2-4-5-6-7-9 $7 for a 15% chance.

HAW Ten
Chaos on the turf
#1 5/1 (16%)
#2 8/1 (11%)
#4 8/1 (11%)
#5 6/1 (14%)
#6 5/1 (16%) $4.30
#7 9/1 (10%)
#9 8/1 (11%)
For an 89% chance, you'd need to bet these seven.