Handicapping results, March 23

We lost money, getting 6 cheap winners in 20 bets. We did well at AQU and TP, but got slaughtered in Chicago. Yes, it's a win percentage of 30%, but that doesn't count for much when no winner is over 8/5.

However, the problem with any day at the races is small sample size. When we pull back and look at the big picture, we see evidence that parsing races into chalk-or-chaos categories makes sense.

Tracking 622 runners who went off at chalky odds (less than 5/2) over the past 6 months, we get 215 winners. That's a 35% win rate. The return on bet was 84% -- an absolutely typical return for chalk bettors.

But let's separate the result into two sets: chalky races and chaos races.

In  races we designated as chalk, 295 starters turned in 122 wins. That's 41%. The return on bet was 97%

In races we designated as chaos, 327 starters won 93 times. That comes to 28%. Return on bet was 77%.

The difference is a $20 improvement for each $100 bet.

A sharp handicapper could turn that 97% return into a profit. But betting low-price horses in chaos races is a losing proposition.