Good chalk / Bad chalk

Sometimes handicappers focus so much on a horse they're considering that they lose sight of the big picture: the race itself. We can divide races into two classes:

1-- Good chalk (non-competitive)

2-- Bad chalk (very competitive)

This can make a huge difference. First let's look at Good Chalk races.

Runners: 3041

Average winner paid: $5.05

Median winner paid: $2.70

Random bet return: 73 cents on the dollar.

Return on top-rated horses: 96 cents on the dollar.

Now let's compare that with Bad Chalk races.

Runners: 2298

Average winner paid: $7.09

Median winner paid: $4.50

Random bet return: 83 cents on the dollar.

Return on top-rated horses: 70 cents on the dollar.

The random bet return varies as it does because longshots are winning much more often in Bad Chalk races. This is confirmed by the dramatic rise in median and average prices paid in Bad Chalk races.

A player can nearly break even playing chalky horses in Good Chalk races. But he will quickly go broke if he tries that same strategy in Bad Chalk races. 

We've been posting fair odds predictions for a while now. In Bad Chalk races, 1079 longshots have met our fair odds criteria. The return on bet was 97 cents on the dollar. But that same strategy churns out just an average return (78 cents) in Good Chalk races.

Players would do well to consider whether they're in a Good Chalk or Bad Chalk scenario before handicapping the individual horse. We will post Good Chalk/Bad Chalk info for selected tracks before each Saturday's races.