Gulfstream March 23

Chaos ratings: 
* Under 20 chalk bias
* 21-29 no bias
* Over 30 longshot bias
Maiden races not rated.
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It doesn't look like a good day for chalk eaters. Only the 5th and 9th races have reliable favorites. And the 8th race is more competitive than the average Breeder's Cup race. We've been keeping chaos stats for six months now, and that rating of 56 is the second highest we've seen. I'm glad I'm not risking any horse flesh in that free-for all. Pick-type players will have a real slog getting through that 8th and the marathon 10th. Scan the longshots for any paying over 7/1.

GP Two: Chaos rating 20
Likely favorite/ML: #4 Summer of Fun 3/2
Fair odds: 3/1.
Capable longshots: 2--6-7

GP Three: Chaos rating 28
Likely favorite/ML: #2 Red Hills 5/2
Fair odds: 4/1
Capable longshots: 3-5-6-9

GP Four: Chaos rating 27

Likely favorite/ML: #10 Hariolus 5/2

Fair odds: 9/2

Capable longshots: 1-5-6
A very vulnerable favorite with a less than 20% chance.

GP Five: Chaos rating 12

Likely favorite/ML: #4 Carried Interest 3/5

Fair odds: 1/1

Capable longshots: 1-5
The favorite may be useful as a pick single, but is worthless to win at 3/5. A $20 pick-3 ticket ending here would have very good coverage.

GP Eight: Chaos rating 56 !

Likely favorite/ML:  #6 Street Secret 7/2

Fair odds: 7/1

Capable longshots: 1-2-3-4-7-8-9-10-11-12
Any favorite in this one is a false favorite.
Minimum playable odds on any horse: 7/1
The super will be gigantic if you can solve it.
($1 super paid $7583)

GP Nine: Chaos rating 21

Likely favorite/ML: #10 Affair 3/1

Fair odds: 5/2

Capable longshots: 1-7-11
Best favorite on the card if ML holds.

The Pan American

GP Ten: Chaos rating 33

Likely favorite/ML: #10 Newsdad 2/1

Fair odds: 5/1

Capable longshots: 2-3-4-5-9
#9 Twilight Eclipse 5/1
No horse should be anywhere near 2/1.
Minimum playable odds on any horse: 5/1.