Chaos races, February 10

CHAOS RACES AND HOW THEY MIGHT BE BET

> Chaos races have about a 50% probability of producing illogical, high-odds winners. Their ratings start at 30. The highest ones will score in the 60s. The higher the chaos rating, the more likely the race will descend into chaos.

> Research into chaos races has shown that the crowd's favorites are throw-outs, and profitable plays start at 5/1. Chalky horses will win about half of chaos races. The other half are won by longshots, sometimes at outrageous prices.

>Outside horses of varying talent levels have performed very well in chaos races.

>Exotics players may find good plays by going deep in chaos races. Exacta, tri and superfecta players may want to consider mixing longshots into their top ticket slots. Pick-type players will want to give these races the fullest coverage that seems reasonable to them.

>In the last 100 chaos races, players who passed the top three crowd choices and bet on all other horses, regardless of any handicapping factors, made a small profit. ($5 per $100 bet.)

Oaklawn 

Race One: chaos rating 30.
Minimum fair odds 4/1
Top horse #6 Renegade Band, morning line 7/2
Likely longshots:
Best: 1-2-4-8
Next best: 7
Since this a borderline chaos race, any significant scratches will turn this into a "normal" race.

50-cent pick-3 on races 4,5,6

Race Four: chaos rating 37
Minimum fair odds: 5/1
Top horses:
#2 Lac Seul's Dream 8/1 morning line
#5 The Steel Warrior 15/1 morning line
#12 Known Commander 8/1 morning line
Likely longshots:
Best: 3-6-7
Next best: 8-10

Race Five: chaos rating 31
Minimum fair odds: 9/2
Top horses:
#3 Unstoppable 9/5 morning line
#7 Najjar 5/2 morning line
Likely longshots:
Best: 1-2-6
Next best: 4-5
Since this a borderline chaos race, any significant scratches will turn this into a "normal" race.

Race Six: chaos rating 42
Minimum fair odds: 6/1
Top horse: #6, morning line 9/2
Likely longshots:
Best: 2-4-5-8-9
Next best: 7-10-11

So prospects for this pick-3:
Full coverage: 8*7*9*(50 cents) = $252
Average winner in chaos races 8/1
3 8/1 winners should pay (50 cents) *8*8*8 = $256.
So a smaller ticket is called for.

Turfway

(Daily Double race three and four)

Race Three: Chaos rating 32
Minimum fair odds: 9/2
#1> 5/1
#4> 9/2
#5> 7/1
#8> 10/1
#9> 7/1
#10> 9/2 (Win $4.90)

Race Four: Chaos rating 33
Minimum fair odds: 9/2
#1> 8/1 (Win $5.30)
#4> 8/1
#6> 6/1
#7> 6/1
#8> 6/1
#9> 10/1
#11> 9/2

Race Twelve: Chaos rating 35
Minimum fair odds: 5/1
#4> 6/1
#5> 5/1
#6> 6/1
#8> 5/1
#9> 6/1
#12> 11/1
#10 not picked (Win $5.60)
Gulfstream

Race One: Chaos rating 30
#1> 10/1
#2> 10/1
#3> 14/1
#4> 7/1
#5> 4/1
#6> 5/1
#8> 9/1
#9> 7/1

Race Four: Chaos rating 37
#2> 11/1
#4> 10/1
#5> 7/1
#6> 10/1
#7> 10/1
#10> 7/1
#8> 8/1

Race Seven: Chaos rating 36
#2> 8/1
#3> 12/1
#4> 7/1
#5> 5/1
#6> 11/1
#7> 11/1
#10> 15/1
#11> 8/1

Race Ten: Chaos rating 33
#1> 9/2
#2> 10/1
#3> 6/1
#4> 9/1
#5> 10/1
#6> 9/2
#8> 9/1