Aqueduct January 5

Race two is dominated by #1 Glorious View and #6 Nifty Shindig. The crowd is unlikely to give any bargains here, but a bet on both to win at the morning line odds would probably produce a squeaker profit. An exacta would be obvious, too obvious, but there's really no reasonable alternative, as longshots in this type of race are very bad bets.

Aqu Three is a "normal" race will all sorts of possibilities, and the crowd is likely to send somebody off at fair odds. #2 Moonshine Bay is the likely favorite, but the 27% win chance calls for a 3/1 tote price.  #4 Reserved Quality would be a bargain at the 5/1 line. #5 So Scott and #6 Act One Scene One should not be bet at anything less than 5/1

Aqu Four, a lowly maiden claimer, is nonetheless a classic chaos race. It is almost unhandicappable. The chalk should pay 6/1, not 5/2 as quoted. This is the kind of race to look for a longshot, and to load up the exotics. Players who back low-price horses in chaos races get absolutely slaughtered at the windows over time.

Aqu Seven (The Busanda) is the next playable race for us. #1 Princess of Slymar is the best horse, but that ain't no revelation. As always, at what price? Yep, 2/1 would be profitable. Anything lower and we look over the competition for a bargain, or perhaps a price horse underneath the Princess.

 Aqu Eight (The Jerome.) The race came up strong and the chart below strongly suggests chaos. Accept no low prices. That 18% for the best horses translates to 5/1 odds. Six of these boys have a realistic chance.

 Aqu Nine Either the 1 or 1A alone could dominate the race, and if they go together they have a ridiculously good chance. The chart below actually underestimates their chances, since our method is reluctant to price any  horse or entry at much under 1/1.