Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Wednesday, December 05, 2012

The ABCs of Loose Horse predictions

369 "A" horses
  • predicted wins: 26% 
  • actual wins 25%
  • return on bet: 98%
In general, our predictions for horses come within 1% of their actual win chances most of the time. A bet on every horse we've graded A, B,C or D returns 96 cents on the dollar, regardless of odds.
Betting only on horses that meet the minimum odds turns that small loss into a small profit. (The sample size for this result was drawn from more than 2,000 runners. The return on a random win bet in American horse racing is about 75%. The return for bets on post-time favorites is about 85%.)
Horseplayers confident in their handicapping methods could reduce their effective takeout to 4% merely by making their selections only from ABCD horses.


No comments: