Fairgrounds La. Champions Day

Overall, this looks like a Chalk Fest. Would be willing to take side bets that the average winners' price for the day is under the general racing mean of 5-1.

FG Four (chalky-normal)
#1 Ladyarbridge won this race last year and is going underneath the fabulous Rosie. Still, 1A Clever Thirteen seems the better half of the entry. The coupled horses are rated "A" as a pair.

• 5 (A) 3/2 1.50
• 1A (B) 3/1 or (A) 3/2 if coupled
• 1 (C) 5/2 win 1.40
• 4 (C) 5/2 @5.20

(Winner was second off a layoff with early speed in last, second in prime and class and tops in speed at distance. Still don't think worth 7/5. But the winner's 2-for-3 at FG may have told the difference.)

FG Five (chalky-normal)
Players expect turf races to turn up big prices, but it doesn't seem likely here, with only four true contenders. #6 Sadie's Soldier has won off layoffs many times, and we'd love to get the 5/1 morning line. #9 String King is 7-for-18, including wins in New Orleans. The 9/5 morning quote seems a tad low.

• 9 (A) 3/2 win 0.70
• 6 (A) 3/2 3 month layoff @3.60
• 3 (C) 4/1
• 2 (D) 5/1

(Brisnet gave the winner a 10-point advantage over her fellow "A" horse, the #6.  The last 3 speed figures were the same.  The winner had a 2-point class edge over the three races. The winner was fresh off the win and the #6 was laid off.)

FG Seven (chalky-normal)
#3 Sittin at the Bar hasn't run a bad one yet in her short career. The line of 5/2 seems about right. #4 She Loves Runnin' is an insane speedball who, so far, hasn't stood up to a stretch challenge.

• 3 (A) 2/1 win 0.70
• 4 (B) 5/2 place @4.90
• 6 (D) 5/1
• 7 (D) 5/1

(This is how we picked 'em, but the #3 couldn't be bet at 3/5. Straight exacta paid $4.50, not exactly a bonanaza)

FG Eight (chalky-normal)
#1 Amanever De Oro is the obvious choice and 6/5 in the morning line, but may be unplayable by the time the crowd finishes beating him with the toteboard.

• 1 (A) 5/2
• 2 (C) 4/1 @19.40
• 3 (C) 4/1
• 5 (D) 6/1
• 8 (D) 6/1
• Ungraded #6 win 3.90

(Winner had 3 bullets and was mysteriously rated Prime 2 by Brisnet.  Off an 8 month rehab. Brisnet's ranking seemed to rely heavily on a recent class rating. But not at this distance-surface. Taking that Brisnet ranking seriously would require taking slop races seriously.)

 

FG Nine (chalky-normal)
#9 Palmy Bay deserves forgiveness for that layoff clunker. Please, please, please, ye gods of racing, give us the morning line of 6/1.

• 9 (A) 5/2 @3.90
• 3 (C) 4/1
• 8 (D) 5/1
• Ungraded #2 win 3.30

(We didn't think much of #2 Hero Force and neither did Brisnet, at prime 6. But this is 2-year-old racing and the winner had three races, all of them good. The crowd was wise here to back a horse that hadn't had a bad race.)

FG Ten (chalky)
Hardly any competition for Hezalotta Wanda, who's marked down at 4/1. That would be a bonanza price, and we'd be lucky to get half.

• 7 (A) 7/5 @7.90
• 2 (C) 5/2
• Ungraded #5 win 2.90

(#5 was tops in SLR and absent in prime. We know that tranlates to fair odds of 10/1.  The crowd sometimes wins when it bets best SLR)

FG Eleven (the only longshot race on the card)
Lots of horses with at least some chance to win. #5 Heavy on Themister has a slight edge, and we agree with the line.

• 5 (A) 5/1 win 5.00
• 1 (B) 6/1
• 3 (B) 6/1
• 9 (C) 8/1
• 7 (D) 11/1
• 8 (D) 11/1
• 10 (D) 11/1
• 11 (D) 11/1

FG Twelve (chalky)
Looks like a runaway for #7 Speedacious, back with Mr. Calhoun. Doubt the crowd will give much away here, but you never know.

• 7 (A) 1/1
• 2 (D) 3/1 win 3.60