Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Friday, November 30, 2012

Gulfstream The Claiming Crown

Hopefully, it comes off fast and firm. Anything else, and we don't play.
Apparently, there's some kind of wacked-out ten-cent Pick 7 covering all these races, with $100,000 guaranteed payout. Just for fun we thought we'd multiply out our probable winners: 8x7x6x10x4x8x7.
At a dime full coverage would cost $7,526. You'd still have a chance of a chaos race blowing up your ticket.
Anyway, the ticket would be $7500 over our budget... so we'll see you in the win pool.

GP Four, The Express (longshot)
We don't even grade #9 Cover Price, the darling of the morning line. Yep, he destroyed his last opponents even after breaking in the air.  But they were a bunch of nobodies, and today he's up against somebody. He does better on "off tracks" and so if the weather turns wet, we give him a massive upgrade. In any event, nobody is worth a short price against a field of this quality.
  • 1 (D) 10/1
  • 2 (D) 10/1
  • 3 (C) 7/1
  • 4 (D) 10/1
  • 5 (B) 6/1 Win 2.10
  • 6 (A) 9/2
  • 8 (D) 10/1
  • 10 (B) 6/1
GP Five, The Iron Horse (longshot)
#2 He's Spectacular is the morning fave. Neither he, nor any other entrant, is worth 3/1.
  • 1 (C) 8/1
  • 2 (C) 8/1
  • 4 (D) 10/1
  • 6 (D) 10/1
  • 7 (B) 7/1
  • 9 (D) 10/1
  • 13 (A) 9/2 Win 3.90
GP Six, The Rapid Transit (normal)
This is the least competitive of the CC races, because many runners just don't have much of a chance to score. Our "A" horse, #7 Peb Hughes, stands atop Brisnet's ranking in many ways, and carries morning odds of 6/1. Which we'd take in a flash.
  • 2 (C) 6/1
  • 5 (D) 10/1
  • 7 (A) 7/2
  • 8 (B) 9/2
  • 11 (D) 10/1
  • 13 (D) 13/1 Win 2.70
GP Seven, The Glass Slipper (longshot) 
This one is gloriously competitive. It ranks right up there with a Breeder's Cup race. No, not in the quality of the runners, but in the fact that so many are truly capable of winning. Our "A" horse is 7/1 !
  • 2 (D)15/1
  • 3 (C) 11/1
  • 5 (B) 8/1
  • 6 (D) 15/1 Win 5.10
  • 7 (B) 8/1
  • 8 (B) 8/1
  • 9 (B) 8/1
  • 11 (A) 7/1
  • 12 (B) 8/1
  • 13 (C) 11/1
GP Eight, The Tiara turf (normal)
Normally, turf races are in longshot territory, but in this one, many horses get a grade of U for Unlikely.
  • 2 (A) 3/1
  • 7 (C) 5/1 Win 6.70
  • 9 (D) 8/1
  • 14 (A) 3/1
GP Nine, The Emerald Turf (longshot)
Another fantastically competitive race. The morning line and Brisnet have both focused on #5 King David. This recent Maker claimee hates to lose, but 4/1 is too cheap against these. 
  • 1 (A) 6/1 Win 2.40
  • 2 (C) 9/1
  • 3 (B) 7/1
  • 5 (A) 6/1
  • 8 (C) 9/1
  • 9 (C) 9/1
  • 10 (D) 14/1
  • 13 (D) 14/1
GP Ten, The Jewel (longshot)
Ferociously competitive.  The speed demon, #11 Trade, has wired many a weak field at a mile, but this is a strong field with another furlong tacked on. Trade doesn't even get a grade from us, and gets 12/1 on the line.
  • 1 (A) 5/1
  • 2 (C) 9/1
  • 3 (D) 12/1
  • 5 (A) 5/1
  • 6 (C) 9/1
  • 8 (D) 12/1
  • 10 (B) 7/1
  • Won by ungraded #4, 16.20




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