The first three races aren't for us, so we begin with race four.
What follows is an astonishing group of races with a very heavy longshot bias. Races that we've labeled "longshot" have been returning average win prices of 8-1. (The average for races in general is 5-1) So we'll be backing zero low-price horses. The "A" horses in these races generally carry minimum odds of at least 5-1. It will be interesting to see how the crowd prices them.
WO FOUR (longshot)
#3 Peche Mobilee is 20/1 in the morning after two performances in which she was badly overmatched. She's much better placed here. #6 Tsuper has never run a bad race, but has never met this competition and is in no way worth the 5/2 line. But the worst line we believe is 3-1 on #10 Consecutive. We like her only underneath or to win at double-digit odds.
- 3-(B) 7/1 *Place 10.90
- 6-(B) 7/1 Win 2.05
- 7-(C) 9/1 *16.15
- 8-(A) 6/1 3.60
- 9-(B) 7/1 2.80
- 10-(D) 13/1 4.00
... Our #3 missed by a nose, her place pay better than the winners.
Only a lowly claimer, but in its own way, more competitive than some of the Breeders Cup races. Five "A" horses! And we don't use ! exclamation marks! very often! Many trainers, apparently, are dropping their horses in class in hopes of making some hibernation money.
#5 Sexy Sheri had no chance last time. #6 Kawaguchi also drops, as does #8 Cutie Girl, whose trainer has put her into many hopeless spots. #13 Three Ways Home is priced too high at 20-1. She's off form but somehow has managed to hit the board half the time.
- 2-(A) 6/1 1.80
- 5-(A) 6/1 *Show 16.50
- 6(A) 6/1 2.65
- 7-(B) 8/1 6.55
- 8-(A) 6/1 *48.55
... We were beaten by a horse we didn't like. Our longshots were three lengths out of it.
WO SEVEN (longshot)
Not as extremely competitive as the previous races, but still we expect a high price winner. The "A" horse, #4 Love to Battle, is 4/1 according to us, and 20/1 according to the line maker.
There are many in here with win probabilities so low we don't list them. Among them is the 3/1 #9 Stage Fright. Brisnet's ranking implies 4/1, so could both ratings be that far wrong? This 4-year-old finally broke his maiden on his 10th try, and that was on the turf. He's 0-for-10 on Woodbine's main surface. He comes from way back and this is a high-traffic event. 3-1? Really? We are still not convinced he's anything but a longshot, but we'll find out when the gate opens.
- 3-(C) 7/1 *43.75
- 4-(C) 7/1 *9.45
- 8-(D) 9/1 4.25
- 10-(A) 4/1 *19.85
... beaten by an 8-1 horse we didn't select.
The problem with the 2-1 listed #7 City Wolf isn't that he's a bad horse, it's more about the competition. Just about any of these fine steeds could win. For just one example, Brisnet's first pick is #2 Hotep, 10-1 in the morning. We believe that's an overlay too. This race is all about the board. Study the board, my friends, study the board.
- 1-(C) 7/1 Win 2.80
- 2-(B) 5/1 Show *7.60
- 4-(B) 5/1 *8.00
- 5-(C) 7/1 *Place 9.65
- 7-(A) 4/1 2.00
... Beaten by chalk at too low a price.
Another ridiculously competitive claimer. I'd hate to be the trainer of any horse in this tough one. #13 Wicket Ewok is the best-liked horse, but that 3/1 line is way too optimistic. The implication of Brisnet's ranking is that somewhere between 6 and 10 horses have a chance. We heartily agree.
- 2-(A) 6/1 2.80
- 5-(C) 12/1 8.85
- 6-(A) 6/1 *24.20
- 8-(C) 11/1 *21.15
- 9-(B) 9/1 6.40
- 10-(B) 8/1 6.20
- 11-(B) 8/1 *Win 7.25
- 13-(A) 7/1 2.65
... The scratch of the #1 brought everyone's acceptable odds down a notch, making #11 a winner at just-fair odds. Our "A" longshot (#6) failed miserably.
It's not just the full gate that makes this competitive. There are three "A" horses and another bunch who could win with a lucky trip.
- 2-(C) 10/1 6.95
- 3-(B) 8/1 *30.50
- 7-(A) 6/1 2.00
- 8-(C) 10/1 *16.50
- 9-(A) 6/1 *10.55
- 11-(C) 10/1 *12.50
- 12-(A) 6/1 *12.50
... Again beaten by a horse we hated, this time at 7-1. In fact everyone that hit the board eluded our handicapping powers.
No comments:
Post a Comment