Churchill handicapping Nov. 10

Overall:  12 $1 bets, 3 wins, $18.30 returned. (Not counting exotic play. Playing at most two horses per race, choosing the highest ranked that meet the minimum odds criteria.)


CD TWO (chalky)
Can't see #6 Scotus at 5/2 as listed. Too much competition. After 3 straight failures on different surfaces, he returns to the track where he's dominated, so it's not like a win would be a surprise. The question, as always, is the price.

• 2-(A) 2-1 1.00
• 4-(B) 3-1 Win 3.60
• 5-(D) 5-1 *6.10
• 6-(C) 4-1 3.40

... a "dutch" here won, even if you included a failed exacta box. #6 Scotus ran off the board, as suspected. He was the crowd's second choice.

CD FIVE (normal)

We don't buy the line on #1 Cielo Classic. His one run on Churchill dirt was miserable. The #5 Enclosure also seems badly priced, probably due to Calvin's being atop. We don't even rate Heir Joe, 4/1 in the morning line and newly managed by Michael Maker.

• 1-(E) 10/1 4.00
• 2-(B) 3/1  2.10
• 3-(A) 5/2 *Win 7.50
• 4-(D) 6/1 * Place 12.00
• 5-(E) 10/1

.... We were absolutely correct on all counts, cashing nice win and place payouts, along with a 70-1 exacta.


CD SIX (longshot maybe)

It all depends on whether #13 Lady Susan makes it to the gate. The handicapping below assumes that she does. If she doesn't, everybody's odds drop a point or two. 
When the "A" horse comes up with 5/1 odds, you know you're in a tough race. Note that #12 Jill Golden rates at nearly half her 20/1 morning line. Not much of a threat to win, but if she goes off at 20-1 or more, she might be a nice kick for trifecta and superfecta players.

• 1-(A) 5/1 Win 2.90
• 5-(B) 6/1 5.30
• 6-(C) 8/1 6.40
• 11-(B) 5/1 1.80
• 12-(D) 11/1 *31.60
• 13-(A) 5/1 *Show 10.70

... the chalk beat both our longshot plays.

CD SEVEN (chalky maybe)

Another race that depends heavily on whether the also-eligibles get in. If the #14 and #15 don't go, #6 is a very high percentage winner. Notice we didn't say mortal lock, since Ben Franklin has already informed us that only two things in this life are mortal locks.

• 6-(A) 7/5 Win 4.20

... a gigantic overlay, nearly four times the fair odds.

CD EIGHT (normal)
The big question is #6 Court's Journey, listed at 8/1. He's 2-for-5 at Churchill and 0-for-12 outside of Louisville. Is his bad form of late real, or the result of him running in the wrong places? Oh, I would take 8/1 and dig deep.

• 6-(B) 3/1 *10.80
• 9-(A) 5/2 *3.70

... wrong on both counts

CD NINE (longshot) CARDINAL TURF HANDICAP, G-III
Extremely strong field and very likely to produce a longshot. It has to stay on the grass though, so we'll see what the stewards have to say about that.
#4 Daisy Devine is listed at 9/5. Nice horse for sure, but there are 3 "A" and 2 "B" horses in here. 

• 1-(B) 8/1 1.80
• 2-(C) 14/1 6.00
• 3-(D) 15/1 *52.30
• 4-(A) 7/1 Win 2.10
• 5-(B) 8/1 *29.40
• 7-(A) 7/1 *14.60
• 8-(A) 7/1 *9.40
• 9-(B) 8/1 6.70

... This was a race to play the "A" longshots against the chalk, but Daisy Devine was much better than we thought, courtesy of a brilliant front running ride by Calvin.

CD TEN (chalky)
Just the opposite of race nine. Hardly any competition for #7 Paoli Princess.

• 7-(A) 3/2 *Place 2.00
• 9-(D) 7/2 *6.40
• 12-(E) 6/1 5.40

... We were absolutely creamed by a horse we ignored, the #10.