Handicapping picks, Aqueduct, Nov. 10

Results: 8 $1 bets, 2 wins, $33 paid.

AQU One (chalky)

This race is so chalky we're including a few "E" horses as longshots. See the chart at right for your basic win probabilities. "X" is the chance that a horse other than those we've rated can win. In theory, picking the four horses below gives you an 85% chance of winning this leg of the daily double.

• 1-(E) 8/1 Win 2.60
• 3-(A) 2/1 *Place 2.95
• 4-(B) 5/2 1.70
• 8-(E) 8/1 6.00

... our #3 got beat fair and square, and at that price we sure didn't bck him to place, but if we had to do it again, we'd still take the #3.

AQU Two Pass

AQU Three (chalky but tricky)
The tricky aspect to this race is the number of first and second-time starters. The #1A, #4,  #6 and #7 shouldn't be allowed to go off at, let's say, double the morning line. As for the more experienced runners...

• 2-(D) 5/1 2.50
• 3-(B) 5/2 *3.40
• 8-(A) 2/1 *Place 3.00

... Won by a firster at 7/2.

 AQU Four Pass. This ain't a stellar card.

AQU Five (normal) Off the turf, we passed.
To judge by the morning line and Brisnet, the crowd should be ready to pound #3 Current Design down to absurd levels. But there's almost a 70% chance, we figure, that somebody else will win, and about a 10% chance of a 1-3 exacta.

• 1-(A) 3/1
• 3-(A) 3/1
• 4-(D) 7/1
• 6-(E) 12/1
• 7-(E) 12/1, new trainer.
• 10-(X) 12/1, first turf
• 13-(R2) 12/1, 2nd race.

AQU Six (longshot, maybe)
While we respect Bruce Levine and Javi Castellano, we can't back #2 Read the Research at anything remotely like the listed 7/2.

• 1-(A) 4/1 *Place 20.10
• 5-(B) 5/1 3.80
• 8-(C) 7/1 1.55

... Wrong! #2 romped at 5-1. We didn't like him at that price either, but he was wire-to-wire speed. But our "A" pick outran his odds too, and paid better in the place spot than the #2 did to win.

AQU Seven (chalky)

#11 Trumpet Man is the rare horse worth an even money bet. Here's hoping he goes off at the morning line of 2/1. The "X" horses here have a combined 10% chance of winning.

• 5-(E) 5/1 3.70
• 11-(A) 1/1 *Place $1.95

... We were wrong about the "X" horses and got whipped by one of 'em.

AQU Eight (longshot) The Long Island Handicap Gr. III
Twelve furlongs on the grass. Since there was snow on the turf course Friday, there's a chance this will be off the turf. If so, pass. If not, this is definitely the best longshot prospect on the card. No way should any horse be backed at under 4/1.

• 1-(C) 7/1 *Win 8.00
• 2-(B) 5/1 3.50
• 3-(D) 9/1 7.60
• 4-(B) 5/1 1.60
• 5-(C) 7/1 3.80
• 6-(A) 4/1 * Show 8.00
• 8-(D) 9/1 *36.50

... The minimum method play here: #6 win, #1 place, #8 show. It paid a small profit. The recommended play: #6 and #1 to win. 6w1 exacta box and 6w1w8 and 1w6w8 straight tris. That's $10 in and $18 returned, even though the exotics failed.

AQU Nine (normal)
Brisnet hates the #4 Get Er Up, and the morning dude says 8/1. That would be a real bargain, we say. She's our top pick in here. If she doesn't come in, the gate is open to just about anyone.

• 4-(A) 7/2 * Place 10.80
• 5-(C) 6/1 2.55
• 6-(E) 13/1 *54.50
• 7-(E) 13/1 5.00
• 8-(D) 8/1 7.10
• 9-(D) 8/1 *Win 23.00
• 10-(E) 13/1 Show *83.00
• 13-(D) 8/1 2.60

... An absolute triumph any way you look at it. Our overlays came in 1-2-3 and paid $227-$1 for the exacta and $8000-1 for the trifecta.
The key here was the weakness of the co-favorites. The #5 and #13 were priced at less than half of their estimated fair odds. This created four overlays, three of which hit the board for monster payouts. This is the kind of race we're looking for, when the crowd overestimates the chances of both the top favorites.
#5 Lion Alexandra. Coming off a two-month layoff for Rick Dutrow, she had run an out-of-this-class speed figure two races back. But she hadn't won at this distance in 3 tries. Her lone win had come at Calder, at a mile race that had been thrown off the turf, where she was the favorite. Apparently the crowd was mesmerized by a single brilliant place performance at Aqueduct. But, let's say it again: One race doesn't mean anything. Here the crowd was betting a gaudy speed figure unsupported by any other evidence.
#13 Alison's Wyn. Jason Sevis claimed this horse for himself, and that's usually a strong positive. But the last two speed figures were unimpressive against this group,and she was more than five lengths behind in each. She was 0-for-5 at the distance and had never run at the Big A.  Here the crowd was apparently betting the 36% trainer angle, Servis after a claim. But in the last 4 races, this horse was good enough to contend against these one time. That's not a 5/2 horse, and neither she nor her co-favorite were a serious factor in this race.

... Now for the horses that proved best:

#9 Discreet Lady had a miserable race last time out and had been dropped two classes. She was 12/1 in the morning line and nearly double that on the tote. That alone should trigger a bet.  Brisnet, like the crowd, counted that last failure too heavily against her, and listed her 10th. She was 1-for-2 at the distance. One race doesn't mean anything.

#4 Get 'er up had two miserable races that Brisnet, the crowd, and the morning line writer all held against her. But she won or place five times in her seven races at the distance. Also, she was on her second start for a new trainer, and switching surfaces from turf to dirt. Both those factors may contribute to "sudden wakeups."

... But none of that would have mattered much if the co-favorites had been strong.

... Ticket structure: Only two horses rated higher than "E" qualified for the win position. We use "E" as underneath only so the logical exacta tickets would have been: 

• 4w9, 9w4, 4w6-10, 9w6-10 for a $6 play. This paid off at 46/1

Now for the trifecta ticket

• 4w9w6-10, 9w4w6-10, 9w4-6-10w4-6-10, and ditto with 4 up front. That's a $20 bet, paid off at 400/1

The dime superfecta ticket would have failed, if played as a $2.40 box all. It would have paid $5,400. 4-9/w4-9-6-10/w4-9-6-10/w all 10 =2*3*2*10 or $8.  That paid off at 675/1

An even safer superfecta play would have been 4-9/w4-9-6-10/all/all.
2*3*10*9 or $54. Even that would have paid 100/1