- "A" horses win about 30% of the time. (Rough odds: 5/2)
- "B" "C" and "D" horses win about 15% of the time. (Rough odds 7/1)
But the odds in any specific race vary wildly depending on the level of competition. So there are no "fixed" odds for any ranking. We evaluate each horse against his/her rivals to arrive at our fair-price odds.
The best use of the A-B-C-D system is in exotics. Players can tell at a glance what horses are worth handicapping. It all depends on how deep they want to go on their tickets, and what type of bet they are making.
If a horse is not mentioned in the race analysis, its record is not strong enough to earn a grade. Exotics players will save money by keeping ungraded horses off their tickets. Those horses have poor prospects and over the long run, offer a very bad return to the bettor.
While B-C-D horses win at similar rates, there is a difference in their value "underneath" in exactas, trifectas and superfectas. In the average race:
- "B" horses place 32% of the time and show at a 45% rate.
- "C" horses place 28% of the time and show at a 40% rate.
- "D" horses place 20% of the time and show at a 33% rate.
Any horse rated B, C or D may be played in the win pool as a longshot when the tote price exceeds its fair odds.
Occasionally horses will be rated "E". These finish "underneath" at the same rate as "D" horses, but win very rarely. They are included in the rankings for "underneath" purposes only.
Horses that we don't grade have a truly miserable payback in the win position, returning less than 30% to their backers, and are best avoided at any odds.
One method for betting this method is to focus on those horses that meet the minimum odds criteria. If more than one has acceptable odds, choose those with the better grades. It's usually best to bet no more than 2 to win in any one race. If you have three or more horses that meet the odds criterion, you might consider exotics.
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