Aqueduct handicapping Nov. 17

Bet $15
Return $14

There really aren't any easy races, and no reason to accept low odds on any horse in today.

AQU ONE (moderate longshot)
#4 American Buffalo is the obvious chalk, and the best horse in the race. The problem is, 6 horses here could win with lucky trips. The combined chances of these longshot horses amounts to 70%. That's why the chalk's chances are really 4/1. The chart shows our estimated winning percentages. There really is no dominant horse here, and therefore should be no low-price favorite. In short, folks, this is a scramble. The purple numbers at right indicate a $6 exacta wheel, which could be reversed.

• 4-(A) 4/1 3.80
• 6-(D) 9/1 6.90
• 7-(B) 5/1 4.40
• 8-(D) 9/1 21.80
• 9-(D) 9/1 2.45
• 10-(D) 9/1 Place 27.70
• (Underneath only) #3, 5

... Wrong, won by #3 @ 4-1. But our longshot paid more $ to place.

AQU Two (normal)

• Both Brisnet and the morning line think #1 Gossip Column is a cinch at 8/5. He's the best horse, no doubt. The question is, at what odds? Note that he is a closer who has failed at low odds four times in a row. It's highly unlikely the crowd will price him at acceptable odds. At right, the exotic pyramid.

• 1-(A) 3/1 .0.80
• 4-(C) 5/1 Place 6.90
• 7-(C) 5/1 15.30
• (Underneath only) #2,3,5,6,10

... Won by #10  @35-1.

AQU Three (normal)
We're ignoring the first-timer Dry Humor, unless he goes off at double the line of 5/1. We like #6 Cameron Canyon, listed at 12/1 in the morning, which we believe would offer an outrageous bargain. We believe the crowd will correct that down to as low as 4/1. Yes, Cameron is 0-for-8, but has he ever met such a bunch of ne'er do wells?

• 1-(D) 7/1 6.70
• 5-(B) 4/1 4.00
• 9-(R2) 8/1
• 10-(R1) 7/1
• (Underneath only) #4,7,8

... For the third race in a row, an unrated horse beat us.  #11 at 2-1 Cameron scratched.

AQU Four  (pass)

AQU Five (longshot)
#2B Terminus is the target here, oversold in the morning line at 5/2. You know the crowd loves linked horses. There's plenty of competition from the "secondary" runners here, the #4, #6 and #12.

• 2-(C) 7/1 (if alone) 0.90
• 4-(B) 6/1 place 15.50
• 6-(B) 9/2 3.30
• 8-(C) 7/1 8.60
• 12-(B) 6/1 21.40
• (Underneath only) #5

... Make that four race in a row, beaten by an ungraded horse.

AQU Six (mega-longshot)
Wonderfully, ridiculously competitive. There should be no favorite. The best horses here are 8/1. If there ever was a race to try to hit an exotic homer, this is it. (Many scratches changed the nature of this race.)

• 1-(D) 16/1 34.75
• 2-(A) 8/1 5.10
• 3-(A) 8/1 7.70
• 4-(B) 9/1 5.20
• 5-(A) 8/1 1.45
• 6-(A) 8/1 11.60
• 10(A) 8/1 8.60

... Five races in a row...

AQU Seven (pass)

AQU Eight Discovery Handicap Gr. III (normal)
Short field, with co-favorites. Warm up the cheap seats in that exacta box, will ya?

• 2-(D) 6/1 20.10
• 3-(C) 9/2 show 7.50
• 4-(A) 5/2 Win 3.80
• 6-(A) 5/2 place 0.75
• (Underneath only) #5

... We did spot the weak chalk and were modestly rewarded.

AQU Nine (moderate longshot)
No, we don't believe the morning line darling, #3 Irish Sea, is worth anything like 3/1. It's too tough a class climb, and he is coming off a long, long time off. That line of thinking opens a whole lotta longshots.

• 5-(D) 9/1 3.30
• 6-(B) 5/1 2.45
• 7-(A) 4/1 Win 8.60
• 8-(C) 6/1 5.60
• 9-(A) 4/1 5.20
• (Underneath only) #3

... Both our "A" horses were underbet, so we backed 'em both and won