Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Friday, November 16, 2012

Hawthorne Nov. 17

$20 in bets and two wins, for a $20 return and break-even card.

HAW One
#6 Explosive War is 6/1 in the morning. We'll take almost any price on this guy, who's been running on the wrong surface lately, and so turning in some dull efforts.
  • 1a-(D) 5/1 6.10
  • 6-(A) 1/1 Win 8.40
HAW Two
Maybe unplayable. We like #8 March Twelfh, but not as much as the crowd will.
  • 1-(D) 6/1
  • 7-(D) 6/1
  • 8-(A) 5/2 Win 0.40
... Yep, unplayable.

HAW Three (longshot)
Our pick is #10 Lemonade Kid, listed at 5/1. But we wouldn't drop our odds demands. This is a competitive race.
  • 1-(B) 7/1 14.30
  • 3-(B) 7/1 3.40
  • 4-(B) 7/1 2.10
  • 5-(B) 7/1 8.20
  • 6-(D) 10/1 10.60
  • 9-(D) 10/1 10.20
  • 10-(A) 9/2 5.90
  • 11-(C) 8/1 7.80
... Won by dark horse #8 at 29-1. Our bet was the most outrageous overlay, or so we thought, the #1.

HAW Four (normal)
Two favorites here, by our reckoning. #1A Hoodwinked and #6 Dad Are We Here.  We really can't figure why #2 Al Musaddad is listed at 7/2.  It must be that last speed fig earned on poly.
  • 1-(B) 4/1 1.30
  • 4-(A) 3/1 3.20
  • 6-(A) 3/1 2.90
  • 7-(C) 5/1 Win 9.40
... This time the most outrageous overlay won.

HAW Six (longshot)
Another turf race where even the standout doesn't stand out all that much. He's #7 Duke of Del Rey. Nice horse, but they're probably going to bet him down to an unreasonable price.
  • 1-(D) 11/1 36.90
  • 2-(D) 11/1 15.70
  • 3-(C) 8/1 Place 3.20
  • 4-(C) 8/1 46.10
  • 5-(D) 11/1 7.80
  • 6-(C) 8/1 8.10
  • 7-(A) 5/1 Win 1.90
  • 11-(D) 11/1 Show 29.10
  • 12-(C) 8/1 15.70
... The Duke beat our four longshots at just under 2-1.

HAW Seven (long, longshot)
A bottom claimer for maiden winners, but very competitive.
Whoever the crowd picks as chalk is a bet-against. No horse should be under 6/1.
  • 1-(D) 13/1 18.60
  • 2-(B) 7/1 23.50
  • 3-(A) 6/1 3.40
  • 4-(C) 9/1 10.30
  • 5-(D) 12/1 Win 2.70
  • 6-(C) 9/1 14.10
  • 7-(C) 9/1 3.10
  • 8-(D) 13/1 50.30
  • 10-(D) 13/1 Show 17.90
  • 11-(C) 9/1 19.10
... All you can do with all these overlays is play the best ranked and "most generous" in this cae, the #2 and #11, But the crowd whipped us again.

HAW Eight (longshot)
We more or less agree with the line on #2 Hot Damon, the likely chalk. We doubt you'll get a fair price, though.
  • 1-(C) 7/1 2.70
  • 2-(A) 4/1 2.00
  • 3-(D) 10/1 69.00
  • 4-(B) 5/1 11.10
  • 7-(D) 10/1 30.20
... Won by dark horse # 12 at 6-1.

No comments: