Woodbine handicapping Nov. 17

This card looks chalkier than the usual Woodbine offering.

$15 in bets

$27 return 


WO Two (chalky)
#2 Atticus Apple, cheaply bred, seems to be a good one after only two races. The problem is, he's listed at 8/5 in the morning, and we're unlikely to get an acceptable price.

• 2-(A) 3/2 Win 1.05
• 4-(C) 3/1 Show 2.70
• 8-(D) 4/13.60
• Underneath: #6

... And we did not get any price on any of 'em, so pass.

WO Three (chalky)
Brisnet's ranking implies that six or seven of these can win. Maybe so, but we can't see it. Seems to scream for an exacta box. We imagine the two listed here will separate from the field.

• 2-(D) 2/1 2.20
• 4-(A) 3/2 Win 1.55

WO Four (longshot)
Eight in the gate and any of these five can easily win. #1 Consolidator Joe is imagined to be the best and assigned 2/1 odds. Yeah he's among the best. But he's not much better, if better at all, than many of his rivals.

• 1-(A) 4/1 Win 1.45
• 2-(A) 4/1 5.90
• 3-(A) 4/1 3.80
• 6-(B) 5/1 Place 8.15
• 7-(B) 5/1 5.15
• Underneath: #5 

... crowd was right, we were wrong about the #1.

WO Six (chalky)
#6 Touched the Clouds has been on rehab after a wobbly effort. That last race will offend many players who would otherwise love him. If right, he is five lengths better than the field.

• 7-(A) 1/1 Show 4.45

WO Seven (longshot)
#11 Raincoatsntuxedos looks to be the crowd favorite, and would be radically overbet at the morning line of 3/1. He has good stamina, yes, but this colt is unlikely to get loose on the lead and will be surrounded by worthy competitors.

• 3-(B) 6/1 Win 5.00
• 6-(D) 10/1 7.75
• 8-(B) 6/1 41.55
• 11-(A) 9/2 1.35
• Underneath: #5, #7

... We were right about the #11 but the winner didn't meet our odds standards.

WO Eight (chalky) The Jammed Lovely Stakes.
The morning line prediction is 9/2 on #1 Evil Kitten. If so, we're down. Since winning her maiden, trainer Nicholas Gonzales has put this filly in one over-ambitious spot after another. From maiden to Grade III in a single bound! She would have a much better record than 2-for-11 if she'd been brought along an easier path. And she only has a few to beat in here.

• 1-(A) 5/2 2.85
• 2-(D) 4/1 Win 1.95
• 4-(D 4/1 Place 6.00
• 5-(C) 3/1 3.60

... Once again, we didn't believe in the chalk and the crowd beat us.

WO Nine (normal)
We agree with the morning line on #8 Wonderfully, and would bet her if the crowd upholds 3/1.

• 3-(B) 5/1 4.05
• 4-(D) 6/1 3.10
• 8-(A) 5/2 2.55
• 9-(C) 4/1 Win 3.25
• Underneath # 5

... Won by "accident" when bet the #9 before precipitous odds drop.

WO Ten (longshot)
Going 9 furlongs on the main track. Most of these fillies and mares have never been the distance, and four of them are very similar in talent, making this a real crapshoot. So 6/1 is the absolute bare minimum for even the best horse. The morning line has picked the #5 Caideas, and priced her at 3/1, but she's not a particular standout.  Players who like to swing for the fences might note #12 Bare Humor and #13 Borrigone.  Neither was good enough to earn a letter grade. But these were the only horses to get their maiden wins at this exact, and difficult, distance.

• 1-(A) 6/1 4.40
• 5-(A) 6/1 3.65
• 7-(A) 6/1 5.10
• 8-(D) 12/1 6.70
• 9-(D) 12/1 10.95
• 10-(D) 12/1 Win 20.90
• 12-(?) 20/1 Place 84.70
• 13-(?) 15/1 66.75
• Underneath #2

... All those "A horses were overbet but we got lucky with the #10 who was way underbet.