Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Friday, November 23, 2012

Aqueduct Nov. 24

AQU One (longshot)
Here's hoping the board is faithful to the morning line. Opportunities abound. #9 Al Dente would be toothsome at the line's figure of 15/1. He could not possibly have won any of his last three races and now he faces company where he has a sporting chance. It's puzzling why #4 Late Starter is the darling of both Brisnet and the crowd. He won his maiden on his 8th try and has declined since. We figure him as maybe the 5th best horse.
  • 1 (B) 6/1
  • 4 (D) 11/1
  • 5 (B) 6/1
  • 7 (A) 5/1
  • 9 (B) 6/1
AQU Four (longshot)
Fourteen in the gate and seven have a decent chance. We think the line overrates #1 Karma Police and is pretty close on the rest.
  • 1 (D) 10/1
  • 4 (A) 4/1
  • 5 (D) 10/1
  • 6 (B) 5/1 @4.50
  • 8 (B) 5/1
  • 10 (C) 7/1
  • 12 (D) 10/1
AQU Six The Demoiselle Gr. II (chalky)
A weak and wobbly edition of this big-money race. We like the morning favorites, but in reverse order. In any event, not going to spend a lot of money on this unpredictable and somewhat ridiculous race. Maybe a straight tri?
  • 1 (A) 1/1 @1.05
  • 2 (C) 2/1
  • 5 (D) 5/1
AQU Seven The Remsen Gr II (longshot)
Now for the two-year-old males, a more competitive race. The #1-#1A entry is 2/1 if they both go
  • 1 (A) 9/2
  • 1A (B) 6/1 @1.75
  • 2 (B) 6/1
  • 3 (C) 7/1
  • 4 (D) 10/1
  • 5 (C) 7/1
  • 6 (D) 10/1
  • 9 (D) 10/1
AQU Eight The Cigar Mile Gr.I (normal-chalky)
Not a particularly strong field. We won last year with Jersey Town, a "C" horse whom the crowd foolishly let go at 34-1. We figured him at a very bettable 9/1 then. He's back for an encore (#4 today) but he's a "D" horse at best against these, the most powerful being #7 Groupie Doll, the Breeders Cup Winner. This filly figures to be bet down to unconscionable levels. Remember, though, that she has never raced at the Big A and she has lost four of her last ten.
  • 1 (D) 17/1 @2.75
  • 3 (C) 7/2
  • 5 (C) 7/2
  • 6 (D) 17/1
  • 7 (A) 2/1
AQU Nine The Gazelle Gr. I (normal)
Nope, we don't believe in the Puerto Rican diva #7 My Wandy's Girl. Yep, she got 14 wins in Puerto Rico. Yep, she won her debut against nobody at Aqueduct. Nope, we ain't going anywhere near her at 3/1. We don't like her at any price but we respect Brisnet's rankings, which imply something like 10/1 or 12/1. #6 Book Review is the legit fave.
  • 2 (B) 3/1 @1.65
  • 3 (C) 4/1
  • 6 (A) 2/1

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