October 20 Racing

Keeneland

• Minimum acceptable odds quoted. Underlays should not be played. Over time, winners' prices will be higher in races marked "longshots."
• Horses not priced are considered non-contenders at any odds.
• Off-the-turf races are automatic no-bets
• Some maiden races cannot be profitably played with this method, and they will be passed.
• Odds may vary greatly from the morning line.
• Generally, the combinations and permutations of pick-type races are too complex for detailed analysis. In order to succeed, players will have to "handicap out" some of the selections in order to keep the ticket price reasonable. The ratings of A, B and C are meant to help pick players.

Win at or above target odds.  
Win below target odds.

KEE 1- (chalky)
...Everybody recognized a dominant horse with early speed.
1-  4/1 B 3.30
3-  6/1 C 4.90
*6- 1/1 A Win 1.00

KEE 2- Pass

KEE 3- (chalky)
... None of the horses had run this exact 9-furlong distance. But the crowd and the morning line recognized that #1 Villandry's last race was at a longer distance and further, that he had the top speed-last-race figure. Brisnet failed here, marking the horse down to the 5th rank, because (I believe) they factored in poor races in sloppy conditions. Also, Villandry had never run on poly before, but had scored that top fig on turf.
*1- 8/5 A  Win 2.00
*4- 3/1 A 8.00
5-   8/1 C 2.80
6-   8/1 C 7.10

KEE 4- (Normal)
... The crowd gave us very little to work with here, with no wildly underbet horses.
1- 4/1 B 3.10
4- 5/1 B Win 3.40
5- 5/1 B 4.50
*7- 3/1 A 4.40
*9- 7/1 C 7.40
$20 exacta paid $18
$60 trifecta paid $69

KEE 5- (Longshot)
No horse in here should carry chalky odds. A mix of "B" and "C" horses...
The overbetting on the #6 caused overlays on the #3, #4 and #9. But the chalk players collected this time. Brisnet got it basically right too, ranking the horse second. But betting this kind of horse in this kind of race at 8/5 won't be profitable long term. That's as close to a guarantee as you'll get in racing.
*3- 8/1 C 26.10
*4- 6/1 B 13.90
6- 9/2 B Win 1.70
7- 9/2 B 3.10
*9- 7/1 C 9.90
$20 exacta paid $9

KEE 6- Pass

KEE 7- (Normal)
Lots of possibilities with lightly raced horses... The drastic overlay, #4, finished 2nd and boosted the exotics. He paid $18 to place, too.
That #4, Hey Leroy, had the second-best fig, and that was posted in his debut race. Brisnet ranked him 5th, missing, I believe, the upside potential of a horse in his second race. The crowd missed it too. Horses can improve dramatically after a mediocre or even terrible debut race. He was priced at $17, but Hey Leroy ran like a 4-1 horse.
This reminds us of a way to used these underbet horses as exotic keys in the top two positions.

Exacta ticket one: 4 w/ 2-6-8-10-11 $5
Ticket two: 2-6-8-10-11 w/ 4 $5
Thus we have a $10 ticket that performs as well as the $30 caveman box. We're simply using the most underbet horse as a key.
The trifectas and supers can be built the same way.

Trifecta:
5 choices w/4w/5 choices $25
4/w/5 choices w/ 5 choices $25
Thus a $50 exacta ticket does the work of $120.

Super 4 on top $12.50
Super 4 in second place $12.50
Giving us a $25 dollar ticket instead of a $36 one.

The point is, we only have one exceptional insight in this race, that the #4 is vastly underbet. This is valuable if and only if we can get him to finish first or second. Getting a 17-1 into the third slot isn't that much of an accomplishment.
It's one thing to have the insight, another to properly play it.

*2-  5/1 B 6.70
*4-  8/1 C 17.20
6-   8/1 C 3.40
8-   8/1 C Win 6.20
10-  9/2  B 3.10
*11- 8/1 C 8.80
$30 exacta paid $98
$120 trifecta paid $893
$36 dime super paid $450

KEE 8- (chalky)
Lots of improbable horses, and only four worth considering. Looks like cheap trifecta territory.
... but we missed the tri. The crowd bit on the bizarre speed figure posted by #3 in her last race. She went off at 3/2 and ran like an 8/1. Horses coming off a career best race far better than any on the record will most often "bounce." Leaving her out of the exacta would have given $37 for a $6 box.
*2- 3/1  A 4.70
3- 5/1 B 1.60
*5-8/1 C 12.50 place
*9- 9/5 A Win 2.60
$12 exacta paid $37

KEE 9 The Raven Run  (longshot)
No chalky horses need apply. The best one here is 4/1...
The chalk eaters got their reward here, but someday soon in a race like this they will choke on the dust of an extreme longshot. Monono, the #12 at a ridiculous 73/1, was forcing the pace until pinched back when she started her move in the upper stretch.
A homerun ticket would have keyed her in second, but like a lot of homerun tickets, it struck out.
*6-  7/1 C 18.00
10-  7/1 C 3.50
11-  4/1 B Win 1.20
*12- 7/1 C 73.00
*14- 8/1 C 12.30 place
$20 exacta paid $20.

KEE 10 (longshot)
A great many horses at the same talent level. No horse should be under 7/1...
The crowd made #9 the favorite at 4/1. The one they radically mispriced, the #3, finished second and triggered very nice payoffs down the exacta-tri-super chain.
The #3, Proud Jared, was priced at 12/1 in the morning line, and Brisnet's ranking suggested 12/1 also. So even if our odds line was wrong (it wasn't) Proud Jared was an overlay from three different angles. Averaging out the three methods we still come up with an 11/1 horse going off at almost twice the price.
But even if you only compare the speed figures, Proud Jared would have beaten the favorite 3 times in the last 5 races. So he was at least as good as a 4-1 horse, but was 21-1. This demonstrates the crowd's tendency to take the latest speed fig as gospel.  Proud Jared ran like a 4-1 horse and triggered huge payouts to those who keyed him to win and place.

Proud Jared as the win-place key horse, exacta version:
3w/1-7-8-9-12 $5
1-7-8-9-12w/3 $5
This $10 wheel paid $92 (8/1)

Trifecta version of this back and forth wheel:
$50 ticket paid $648 (12/1)

Dime super version:
$25 ticket paid $319 (12/1)

A win-place bet paid $18 for $4 (i.e. 7/2)

1-   7/1 C 6.00
*3-  8/1 C 21.00
7-    7/1 C 6.00
8-   7/1 C Win 5.60
9-  7/1 C 4.00
12-  7/1 C 4.60
$30 exacta box paid $92 (2/1)
$120 trifecta box paid $648 (9/2)
$36 dime super box paid $319 (8/1)

Hawthorne

• MTOs are ignored, since off-the-turf races will be passed.
• The featured race, the 8th, offers the best chance for longshot players.
• Many races on this card have few true contenders, so it looks overall like a chalky card. However, we have uncovered a couple of horses who look to be wildly underbet, at least to judge by the morning line. See races #2 and #5.

Race 1 Rating C (chalky)

Playable double and pick-3 starts here.
Looks like a three horse race. As a friend of mine once said, "When you think you have the trifecta, bet an exacta." Or as Damon Runyon said, "All life is 6/5 against."

*3-3/1 3.30

6-3/1 Win 5/2

*7-2/1 2.20
... In the end, we didn't have a big advantage anywhere, and there was nothing for us to bet. The tote was spot-on.

Race 2 Rating C (chalky)
We violently disagree with the morning line.
#10 Gold Legion has won or placed in half of his 12 HAW races.
#5 Mastman is in a layoff cycle with credible backspeed...
3-No bet Win 5.10
*5-3/1 Morning line is 12/1 6.30
9-4/1 5.00
*10-3/2 Morning line is 12/1 15.00
... We were wrong, and the crowd was wrong, but we were wronger.  Horses we overlook in our analysis have a very small chance of winning and a truly miserable return-on-bet. These will beat us once in a while.
The overlays on #5 and #10 would have caused us to bet an exacta box, which we lost.

Race 4 Rating B (normal)
Lots of longshots, but only a few of them bet-worthy...
1- 11/1 if alone, 3/1 if coupled. Coupled 1.00 place
1A- 3/1 coupled. 1.00 place.
6- 10/1 9.00
9- 3/1 Win 2/1
*10- 12/1 31.30
... the crowd as usual went nuts for the entry, betting it way down to even money. The results suggested a price more like 4/1. We knew the winner, #9, was capable, but hated the odds.
Our exacta play would have wheeled that underbet #10 with the other contenders. A 3x1 double wheel cost us $6, with no return.


Race 5 Rating C+ (very chalky)
A radical departure from the morning line. This race features an extreme number of no-bets.
#4 Slammin Easy has placed 3 times in his 4 Hawthorne races. He's been running, and not very well, on Chicago's softer Arlington surfaces all winter. Now after a 2-month vacation, trainer Ingrid Mason finally has the opportunity to put him back on his preferred surface. The jockey is practically his best friend. Even Brisnet, which counts all those poly and turf races, rates him 1 meaningless point behind its leader.
*4-1/1 Win 4.80
8-10/1 3.60
10-10/1 3.30
... Our best play at HAW today worked out. We saw only three contenders and one overlay. Slammin Easy won by 8 lengths. Keyed win-place in an exacta with the 2 contenders, he was only a $4 play, but paid $26. Slammin paid 9/2 in the win pool, and a bit over 5/1 with our exacta key.

Race 6-Pass

Race 7- Rating B (normal)
This one features 4 strong horses and lots of no-competes.
*6-5/1 11.30
*7-5/2 6.10
10-6/1 Win 2.20
... We believed wrongly that the #10 was unworthy of short odds. He ran like a 2-1 shot and proved the crowd right. We boxed the #6 with the #7 in an exacta and got our hands slapped.

Race 8 The Lightning Jet - Rating B+ (moderate longshot)
This race features 6 contenders...
*2- 8/1 23.40
3- 7/2 2.50
5- 6/1 place 4.90
*7- 8/1 19.90
8- 6/1 2.20
*10-5/1 Win 5.40
... The crowd made the hideous decision to make #8 the favorite and he finished toward the back. All we knew before the race was that the #2 and #7 were radically underbet, and the #10 was more or less fair odds. Three exacta plays would have keyed all of them in the top spot  at $5 per ticket, $15 total. It paid $42.
A reasonable super would have been the "good bets"  (2-7-10) on top with all the other contenders underneath. 2-7-10w/2-7-10-3-5-8... an $18 losing play.

Race 9 Rating B (normal)
Hawthorne offers a so-called Jackpot Hi-Five (they can't decide how exactly to spell it) on this race. Its ridiculous rules are meant to hype the payout. It only pays out the whole pool if there is one and only one winner. Multiple winners split 50% of the pool. Who thinks this crap up? This is almost as bad a bet as playing the state lottery. Its apparent purpose is to give losers a reason to stay around for the last race. Boxing our 6 contenders would cost a mere $720. Can't wait!
Okay, sarcasm turned off now. Hawthorne is desperate to lure exotic money because its pick-6 pool is failing. This Saturday it had exactly $576 in the pool. Maybe they should ... ah the hell with it.
Let's focus on this race. It features 6 contenders.
1-7/2 3.10 super
*3-7/1 45.60
5-3/1 win 1.60
6-7/1 show 11.00
10-10/1 place 4.20
11-10/1 8.90
... We had one seriously underbet horse, the #3. He finished poorly after leading into the stretch and then encountering wicked traffic problems.
Our wise-guy play was to put him in a win-place position on two exacta wheel tickets. This cost us $10.
When you have six horses it's also time for a dime super box. It cost $36 and paid $29.  Which shows you the problem with boxing.

$1 increment theoretical bets
R3: Lost $4
R4: Lost $8
R5: Win $27
R7: Lost $4
R8: Win $12
R9: Lost $8
Overall: Win $15.

Belmont

Race 1 - Pass.

Race 2- (moderate longshot)

*1- 5/1 19.50

3- 5/1 1.60

*5- 8/1 24.50

6- 7/2 3.00

7- 6/1 2.65

*9-8/1 Win 8.60 

... We didn't think any of the crowd's top three picks were worth short odds. A dutch on the three overlays paid $19 for $6 or about 2/1. The winner, Willet, came from all the way back to win by 9 lengths without feeling the whip.
Exacta keys with the overlays in the win spot all failed. Cost: $15.

Race 3- Rating C (chalky)
The scratch of the #9, our top pick, caused a scramble. This would have been a no-bet situation, unless we had time to re-calibrate.

2-7/2 1.95

5-No bet Win 2.80

*6-5/1 7.30

12-9/2 place 4.20
... The crowd outfoxed us by backing a top trainer and turf jockey trying the distance for the first time. Our #6 overlay gave us nothing to win and nothing for a back and forth exacta key, which cost $6.

Race 4- Pass

Race 5- (chalky)
*1- 6/1 16.70

2- 6/1 6.00 show

4- 3/2 1.05 win

*6- 6/1 21.20

12- 12/1 10.10

13- 12/1 12.00
...Our two dutch bets were totally wasted, as was a homerun swing at an exacta box. The best horse by all accounts was bet way down. Probably the dutches are a poor idea in a race marked chalky. A baseball of the obvious #4 with overlays #1 and #6 failed at $6.

Race 6- (chalky)

2-3/2 But 4/5 in the morning line. 0.65 place

4-8/1 6.50 win

6-3/2 As good as #2. 4.70 show
... Here we had that rare natural trifecta. The pure box paid $37 for $6.
The keys with the 6 in the top spots failed at $2 each. So in the end, $37 for $10. An exacta played the same way was $15 for $10.
We were right about that #2 not being dominant, and wrong about the #6, although really, he only finished a length back, so...

Race 7- (moderate longshot)

1-9/2. Is 4/5 in the morning line. .035 win

3-9/1 24.00

6-7/2. Has beaten #1 three times. 8.30

8-9/1 9.00 place
... The only play here was to get the #6 to win or place, and we failed by a neck. No enthusiasm for a race with a chalk at 1/5.

Race 8- Pass

Race 9- Rating A (longshot)
Definitely best race on the card for longshot players.

Three horses of very similar ability (1A, 6,8) makes it hard to take low odds on any one of them.  There are 6 horses with a decent chance. Which ones will the crowd ignore, that is the question.

1-15/1  6.00

*2-7/1 18.30

*3-8/1 8.70 show

*5-8/1 48.00

6-9/2. Listed as 9/5 in the morning line. 2.60 place

8-9/2 Brisnet's top pick, 8/5 in the morning line. 0.80 win

... No, we didn't believe in that #8, but the damn horse paid no attention to us. Despite our pre-race pronouncements, we've found it unwise to risk a lot challenging odds-on horses. We don't play heavy, or sometimes simply pass, these superchalk races. The odds-on horses ruin the place pool and the exotic pools.

Race 10 Mohawk Stakes -(longshot)
Whoever the crowd picks as chalk has some real competition.
*1A-  3/1 4.90
*4-    4/1 4.10
5-     5/2 1.95
8-     8/1 2.65 win
*9-   8/1 17.70 place
... The #8 won by miles, surprising us.  Our key overlay was the #9, and we were right about him. He was much closer to our 8/1 than the crowd's price. But you can win in this game even when you're basically wrong about the race. Our lone insight was that the #9 was much much better than his price.
The first move was to box him with the other overlays, a futile $6.
The next was to win-place key him in the exacta. This was an $8 play that yielded $58.
Trifecta tickets tend to get too pricey, so we skipped to the super. Our tickets 9/1A-4-5-8 and another with the #9 in the second spot. These tickets combined cost less than $5, but busted out when a 33-1 shot busted out our fourth horse. That's racing!
Overall, our $24 worth of exotics came back with $58. That's about 6/5. Meanwhile, the simpleton play, #9 to win and place, paid $13.80 for $4, or over a little over 2/1.

The results:

R2: Lost $15
R3: Lost $7
R5: Lost $8
R6: Won $27
R7: Lost $2
R9: Lost $4
R10: Won $34
Overall: Win $25

Other selected races

Woodbine

Race 1 Rating B (normal)

The two chalks (#1 and #3) will almost surely be overbet.

1-3/1 Win 3/2

2-7/1

3-3/1

5-No bet

6-9/2

7-10/1

Race 2 Rating C (chalky)

The #2-#6 figure in a speed duel, but the #1-#4 are unknowns at this distance and surface.

1-8/1

2-7/2 Win 3/1

3-8/1

4-No bet

5-No bet

6-2/1

7-No bet

Race 6 Rating C- (very chalky)

#10 looks like a monster against these. Might be worth playing the #6 or #8 at giant prices, especially when mixed up with the #10/.

1-No bet Win 10/1

2-No bet

3-No bet

4-No bet

5-No bet

6-40/1 Small chance of a giant surprise.

7-No bet

8-40/1 ditto of #6

9-No bet

10-1/1 The others make him look like Secretariat

11-No bet

12-No bet

13-No bet

Race 7 Grade A (longshot)
Seven of these claimers have a legit shot.
1-4/1 if alone, 2/1 if coupled.
1A-6/1 if alone, 2/1 if coupled.
2-No bet
3-No bet
4-9/1
5-No bet
6-No bet
7-6/1
8-6/1
9-7/1 Won 3/1
10-No bet
11-6/1
12-No bet

Race 9 Grade C (chalky)
#5 likely to trail, the rush up. Much the best late, and probably not much traffic in a short field.
1-6/1
2-6/1
3-No bet
4-12/1
5-1/1 Won 3/2
6-No bet
7-No bet