A: (1, 33-d)
B: (5, 30-d) (2, 31-s) (6, 30-d)
C: (7, 26) (3, 25-ds)
D: (4, 23-ds)
A marginal betting race as the standout horse, She's On Parade, has raced only once and is unproven at the distance. There are similar concerns about her best rivals, so... it's time for lunch, isn't it?
Race Two
A: 5 (34) 11 (34)
#5 Brother Bird could get some real competition from #11 Lost Sword. You must get past that bad last race, but at a price, it could be worth it.
Brother Bird has early speed. Not good here.
B: 7 (32) 9 (32) 4 (31) 8(31) 12(31)
None of these "B" horses would be a surprise. Check the tote. #4 Steve's Big Moe is 15-1 in the morning, is as good as any of these, and has the best late rush.
C: 1 (30)
D: 2 (28) 3 (28) 6 (27s) 10 (25)
Race Three
A: 5 (34) 2 (34?) 4 (33)
#5 Tulira Castle is the obvious choice, and if at ML of 5-1, a good bet. #2 Ginger Goose, the euro, might be as good but may be bet down. #4 Mac the Man would be okay at ML of 6-1.
B: 1 (32-s) Hell no at 7:2 ... 3 (31) A bad bet a 6-1.
C: 8 (30) 6 (29) 7 (26)
Race Four: Pass.
Race Five
A: 1 (38) 4 (37) 9 (37s)
It looks like #1 Gung Ho will be bet down to mad levels, having 3 high-figure races over the poly. But #4 Salto is nearly as good and enjoys the great turf rider Javier Castellano. Julien Leparoux is no sleeper on the turf either, and his #9 Majestic Harbor's lone turf race suggests that he might like this AW stuff. The ML of 6/1 is okay, but more is always better.
B: 5 (36) 2 (35) 6 (35) 7 (35)
With the right trip, any of these "B" longshots could win. I'd need much better than 5-1 on 'em, though.
C: 8 (34)
D: 3 (29)
Race Six
A: 6 (38) 7 (37) 8 (37)
#6 Ridgester would be an enthusiastic bet at ML of 8/1. Her three turf routes have been outstanding. #7 Dawn Lane is listed at 20/1. She is trying grass for the first time, and her true price should be 10/1. And #8 Lode Lady at 9/2, well we'd need better odds on her but we think these three are all of more or less equal talent.
B: 3 (36) 5 (36) 2 (35)
#5 Adjacent figures to be the tote darling, and is listed #1 by Brisnet, but we're not on board that train, especially at tiny odds. Yes only one bad race in her 7 runs. But there's more competition here. The crowd is likely to price her as a 40% horse (3-2) and that's too low. She may well win, but would be a bad bet at the price. #3 Soft Whisper and #2 Submission are probably as good, at much higher prices.
C: 4 (34) 9 (34)
D: 1 (31)
Race Seven: Pass
Race Eight
A: 3 (35) 5 (35s) 1 (34)
This looks like a 5-horse race. So we'd like to get 6-1 on whoever we back. #3 Lady Diva Gaga. Best race of her life was just like this one. That 10/1 looks generous. #5 Pro D'Oro is Brisnet's pick. Improving and may transfer form from green stuff to gray stuff. That 20/1 ML is ridiculous and the crowd can't possibly buy it. #1 Ire is proven at the distance/surface and could have been 3-for-6 with a little luck. Hope for better than the morning guy's 4-1.
B: 8 (33s) 10 (euro) #8 Spun Cap. Could be a monster filly after two very sharp runs. #10 Three Am Tour has five Euro races that were good enough to win against these Americans. Beware at 8-1.
9 (31) 12(30)
2 (26s) 4 (28) 6 (26) 7 (29) 11 (28s)
Race Nine Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup Grade I
A: 5 (40) 4 (38) 6 (38) 7 (38) 8 (38)
The crowd will probably like #5 Stephanie's Kitten. So do we. But she's going to be 9-5 or lower, and we don't bet at those odds. Brisnet likes #7 Samitar, followed by #8 Day at the Spa. The #4 Centre Court has the top distance/surface rank. #6 Somali Lemonade had two very nice races recently at this exact distance on the turf. This race is a crapshoot with six horses as logical winners. In a race like this with no dominant horse, luck determines the winner. That implies a search for odds among our "A" horses at a target of 7-1. And the lone "B" horse is worth a look too.
B: 1 (37)
C: 2 (36) 3 (35)
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