April 29 Racing

Ratings: (A) Worth 6/5
(B) 5-1 minimum
(C) all listed longshots 10-1 minimum, better at 15-1
Bold face longshots are worth considering at the M/L odds.
With few exceptions, first time starters not considered.
No bets below 6/5 under any circumstances.

BELMONT

Overall result: $38 bet, $39 return.
Race One

• #9-Quiet Eyes (B) Would love to get the ML of 10/1 but can't believe BEL bettors are that dumb, given the performance one race back, and then the early speed in that last race in March. Yes, that monster performance was with Dutrow juice, but still... 10/1??? Place bet if nothing else, even if you like the favorite #4 to win. Tired in the stretch at 5-1. Fade with new trainer was for real.

Longshot watch: 1-4-5-6-7
#6 Flo's Greatness: Don't hold that muddy mess against him. Squeezed back at the gate at 9-1.
#7 wins at 5-1. ML of 3-1 and just missed last in mud. Best class, too, if mud considered.
Result: $6 bet, $13 return.

Race Two

• #11-Dylan Dangerous (B+) Excellent first race, sharp trainer.

• #5-Back Catcha Eric (B) Woke up late in first race, time off, nice workout. Place at 3-1.  Low-odds pass.

Longshots: 3-9
#9 won but at 7/5. New 20% trainer and top rider. Low-odds pass.
#3 ridiculously low odds of 5-2. Also ran. Pass.
Result: No bet.

Race Three

• #6-Joburg Star (A) Will get into a speed duel, though. Bumped start, 3-wide run at 5-2.

Longshots: 1-2-3-4-5
#3 Ambassador Bridge: No speed, but drops into claiming after two pretty good allowance sprints. At 15-1 ML, exotic play if nothing else.
Show at 18-1. Paid $7.60.
#4 won at 7-2.
#5 place at 10-1.
Result $6 bet, $0 return.

Race Four

• #4-Star of New York (B) Won 3 of last 4 and M/L dude says 8/1. About as good as #3-Inherit the Gold, and at a much more attractive price. Show at 9-1, paid $3.80

Longshots 1-2-3-6. With six in the gate, a good longshot price is ... a longshot.
#6 won at 5-1.
Result: $4 in, $13 return.

Race Five

• 11- Night Brigade (A) Especially attractive as the dominant horse if #15 doesn't go. Speed, lead, fade at 5-2.

• 15-Simple Exchange (B+) if in. At 6/1 ML, would be a good bet.

Longshots: 4-5-7 Would need giant prices on all except...
#4 I Dreamt I Was. Rehab project with believable backstory and good recent works. But 3/1? Double those odds and get back to me. Nah. Triple the odds and then maybe... Show at 2-1, low-odds pass.
#5 won at 5-1.
#7 4th at 6-1.
Result: $6 in, $13 return.

Race Six

• 5-Free As A Bird (B+) A yes vote at 3-1. Daughter of Hard Spun stumbled in her only start. Show at 5-2.

Longshot: #7 A McCoughtry. Granddaughter of Giant's Causeway raced well enough in her first try on a gunky track. Worth ML 6/1. No speed at 8-1. Race won by first-timer #3 at 20-1.
Result: $4 in, $0 return.

Race Seven

• 9- Debase the Dollar. Place at 2-1.

Found her footing on the turf last time.

Longshots: #7-Irish Wedding. Marry her at 9/1, no lower. Pass 6/1.
#5 Evening Garden. First grass try worth the 12/1 ML Also ran at 16/1.
Race won by first-time #8 at 3-1.
Result: $4 in, $0 return.


Race Eight

• 6-Zellwegger (B) Toss all but the turf sprints, see two good-enough races. M/L favorite #9 breaks from a bad post, will see traffic jam. Wide and no try at 6-1.

Longshot: #4 Lights Out Lisa. As good as #9 but twice the price. Lisa gets more attractive the closer she gets to 12/1. 4th at 10-1.
Result: $4 in, $0 return.


Race Nine

• 1- New Yawker (B) Good post, long works, proven at distance/surface. Layoff is a concern, and that's why we ask 5/1 minimum. Place at 11-1, paid $10.80.

This is one of the better longshot races on the card.
Longshots: 5-8-12-13 but all need big odds, at least double-digit.
#12-Bernie the Maestro is listed at 6/1 for his first turf sprint after 8 wins on dusty surfaces. The ML is probably about right, which means we'd look for much, much more to turn this proposition into a winner. Howzabout 12/1? Pass at 7/2, never in contention.
Result: $2 in, $0 return.

Race Ten

• 8- Giving Me Fritz (C) Two races at this distance/surface, and the first of 'em was good enough to beat today's competition. Worth a flyer in a longshot race where the M/L favorite (#4-Dita) is 0-for-8 and fizzled as the people's choice last time. Stretch run, finished 4th at 14-1. But yes, Dita was never in contention at 6-5.

Longshots: Who knows? Any could wake up, but betting on that will ruin ya. Unless you picked #10 at 13-1.
Result: $2 in, $0 return.

HAWTHORNE


Result: $16 bet, $26 return, just one longshot win. A couple of winners passed due to low odds.


Race One

• 7-Bet Seattle (A) New trainer, longer works, nice return from winter layoff. Seth Martinez always a plus. Won at 1/5. Low-odds pass

Longshot: 5-Popeyes A Sailing. Not exciting at 8/1 ML, but if the crowd lets this slip to oh, 12/1 or more, then...

Race Two
Pass #6 won at 47-1. Favorite buried at 1-1.

Race Three

• 1-Mr. Conductor (A) Speedy last race, has the rail and if he breaks the gate okay, a wire job is highly likely. Faded to 4th at 3-5. 
• #6 won at 7-1. Low odds pass.

Race Four

• 3-Reno Star (A) Another candidate for wire-to-wire. 7-length winner at 3-5. Low odds pass.

Race Five

• 2-Creative Wizard (B) Laughed down the stretch last time, meets tougher mules this time, need 5/1, not the ML of 3/1. Pass at 2-1, finished third.

Longshots: 4-7. Either might be worth a cheap flyer at 15/1 since they are meeting unusually weak competition.
#4 8-1 also ran.
#7 won at 12-1.
$6 bet, $26 return.

Race Six

• 9-North of Never (B) Won maiden on turf, vast improvement to just miss in his second try.   Through traffic to show at 9-5. Low odds pass.
• 11-Candy Train (B) Needed the time off, although Jenks is not the world's greatest layoff trainer. Bullet work though, and Rosemary knows grass. Never in it at 9-1.

Longshots 1-10 if the crowd pushes their odds into double digits.
#10 won at 9-2.
#1 also ran at 7-2.
Low odds pass on #1 and winner #10.

$2 bet, $0 return.


Race Seven

• 11-Joe Matt (B) Pray for the ML of 6-1, after all it's Sunday. Needed that last tuneup, gets Torres and blinkers. Middle of the pack and no bet at 2-1. Won by first timer #7 at 12-1.

Race Eight

• 3-Urmybaby (B) Worn out from that last speed duel? Maybe. Or maybe it toughened her up for today's contest. At 5/1 minimum, worth a try. Answer: Worn out. Led, faded at 9/2. Low odds pass.
• 10-Baby Lucy (B) Ace trainer. Wow that debut! A five-year-old mare with upside. Win at 7-2. Low odds pass.

Longshots: 2-5-6-7-9 This is a competitive field, where not much separates the seven best horses. If the crowd lets any of these drift past 15-1, it might be time for a window adventure.
#2 15-1 finished 4th.
$2 bet, $0 return.

Race Nine

• 3-Runaway Cal (B+) Good calls in both tries, but Inez and Kirby are not particularly stellar on the green stuff. Hasn't got the baggage of many losses that some others have.
• 7-Bingorun (B) Zero-for-eleven, but those last two turf routes really were impressive. At 6/1 ML, maybe shouting bingo. Tough early, weak late at 5/1.
• 8-Classic Recital (C) Zero-for-twenty-two. Ugh. Yes, maybe better underneath. But just missed at 18-1 in that last turf miler-plus. Lousy at 4-1, pass, way overbet.

There is no dominant horse in this race. A lucky trip will probably decide it. Longshots 11-12 might be worth a try if they pass the 15-1 barrier.
#11 17-1 4th
#12 11-1 3rd
$6 bet, $0 return.