Making bets on Kentucky Derby Day

Race One 2x Route
5 Spd-dist.
2 Best dirt spd. Win 1.10
3 Toss the G2s
1 Newt

Race Two Maiden Sprint
1 Firster 15/1
2 Second race 8/1 Win 5.10
4 Firster 15/1
7 Prime
10 Improving.
9 Second race 20/1.
3 Improving
5 Need 12-1 Win 15.60


Race Three 1x Route
2 Big win, layoff 25%
5 Spd-dist.
10 Spd-dist.
7 Spd-dist.
1 Need 10/1 win 15.60


Race Four, 3x, Turf
10 Best turf spd
9 Need 6/1
8 Year off, newt.
5 2nd layoff 12/1
4 Off 6 months. 15/1
12 Off 2 months 15/1
1 Best turf spd.

Race Five 1X, 7 furlongs
6 Thermal Cat (40) Monster debut in Chicago.
3 Mile High Magic (37) Blowout second race at SA.
1 Seven Lively Sins (36) Last at CD was sharp.
7 Devoted Wild Cat (36) Nice starter allowance win in Florida.
5 Big Blue Nation (33) Won maiden at CD at 33-1.


Race Six Twin Spires Turf Sprint
This race features three horses of equal talent, so the best bet would be the one with the top price.
4   Bridgetown (43) 6-for-10 at the distance.
10 Great Mills (42) 4-for-8 at the distance.
11 Chamberlain Bridge (42) 16-for-35 at the distance.
12 Shabaab (39) Not in class of above, but breaks fast.
2   Great Attack (38) 9 tries at 5F turf, 2 wins.

Race 7 Churchill Downs Stakes 
An excellent longshot race.
6 Amazombie (47) Seemed to love CD back in November.
4 Shackleford (44) Fabulous runner for 3/4 of a mile.
1 Smiling Tiger (42) California dude with good CD record.
7 Gantry (42) Cheap wins will mean crowd ignores him.
5 Hamazing Destiny (41) Lukas: 2% wins in graded stakes.
2 Alma D'oro (41) Never run the distance.
3 Apriority (40) Just missed in last year's event.

Race 8 Distaff  Mile Turf
4 Tapitsfly (41)
9 La Reine Lionne (40)
3 Marketing Mix (40)
7 Aruna (40)
8 City To City (39)

Race 9 Humana Distaff

• 7 Switch (44) Classy G1 wins, but a long layoff and a tendency to finish second. At 2-1, easy to pass.
• 8 Musical Romance (42) Classy wins. A bet at 6-1.
• 3 Sassy Image (42) ML of 5/2 is ludicrous.
• 6 Groupie Doll (41) Peaking, but not worth ML of 5/2
• 9 Hot Summer (41) Would need a great trip but a bet if 30/1.
• 1 Magical Feeling (40) 12-for-21 and 30-1 odds? I'm down. Anything above 12-1 is a bargain.

Race 10 Turf Classic
The chalk must die! Wonderful longshot race. Absolute minimum odds would be 6-1.

• 8  Turbo Compressor (44) Would love the ML at 6-1.
• 2  Turallure (42) Tough at the distance.
• 4  Get Stormy (42) Always there at this distance.
• 1  Little Mike (41) Starts looking good at 12-1
• 6  Doubles Partner (41) Four great graded races.
• 11 Papaw Bodie (41) 30-1? Where do I bet? Fair odds on this Maker trainee would be more like 12-1. Mix into exotics, at least. Has won-placed in 80% of recent races.

Race 11 Kentucky Derby

• 6 Bodemeister (45) Everybody awed by that Hot Springs romp. Proven twice as stretch runner. Closer rating: 108 ... 6/1 
• 4 Union Rags (44) Tough customer in every race. Stretch proven twice. Closer rating: 114 ... 10/1
• 3 Take Charge Indy (43) Closer rating: 110. Breeding and one brilliant race ... 15/1 
• 8 Creative Cause (43) Breeding, plus proven closer. Closer rating: 114 ... 15/1
• 19 I'll Have Another (43) Proven in stretch twice. Closer rating: 109 ... 15/1
• 15 Gemologist (42) Never beaten, but unproven in tough stretch. Closer rating: 102 ... 20/1
• 13 Went the Day Well (42) At huge odds, worth a try. A lot of energy left in the stretch. Closer rating: 111 ... 20/1
• 16 El Padrino (41) Got the breeding and two nice G2s, plus four touch stretch runs. Closer rating: 109 ... 20/1
• 11 Alpha (41) Breeding, many good races against these. Closer rating: 104 ... 25/1
• 14 Hansen (41) Will have lead, probably won't keep it. No bet at 10-1, should be 30-1.

  Best of the proven closers: 4-Union Rags, 8-Creative Cause, 13-Went the Day Well, 16- El Padrino, 19-I'll Have Another.  Win bets $10.  Exacta $20

There's at least an 80% chance the winner will come from this group of 10. That suggests a minimum of about 12-1.