APRIL 21 RACING

KEENELAND
Min odds: A=1/1... B=5/1... C=10/1
Races with 5 or more true contenders tend to produce longshot winners. Horses not listed will produce a very poor ROI overall.
First-time starters ignored.


Race One

• 4-Alandtom A

Grade C longshots: 6-7-8

Race Two

• 8-Don'tgetmadalexis A $6.80

Grade C longshots: 7-3

Race Three

• 1-Brilliant Autumn A $12.60
• 8-Dads Shooting Star B

Grade C longshots: 5-7

Race Four

• 6-Whiskey Vixen B+ (3-1) Place $3.00

Race Five

• 10 Counselor Cabot A

Race Six

• 5-Distortionada B+ (5-2) $6.40
• 1-Reason to Medal B

Grade C longshots: 2-3

Race Seven

• 11-Lady Aspen B Show $4.40

Grade C longshots: 3-4-10

Race Eight
True contenders: 6

• 12-Flash Mash B Win $17.40
• 6-Inspired B
• 11-Fortnue Play C

Grade C longshots: 1-2-5

Race Nine The Lexington
True contenders: 9, yes, 9
Best longshot race on the card.

• 5-Golden Ticket B

Grade C longshots. None of these would be a rude surprise:
1-Morgan's Guerilla: Never a bad race and just may be worth ML 6/1.
2-Summer Front: Three cheap wins on turf and not worth ML 9/2
3-Johannesbourbon: Well bred, could be a monster off that maiden.
6-Holiday Promise: Seems to like to finish 2-back
7-Castaway: Toss that last one, but 3-1 ML is way, way too low.
8-Hammers Terror: Toss three to a nice Keeneland win. 30/1 !
9-All Squared Away: Outclassed, but new trainer, underneath at 50-1. Win $143.20, $45.80, $17.00
10-News Pending: Absurd M/L of 5/1, but might work at 12/1 or so.

Race Ten

• 5-Fast Bobbi J

Grade C longshots: 3-9-10-11
Win 10-Atlantic Tap $7.80


AQUEDUCT

Race One
A scramble between...

• 4- Two Seventeen
• 3-Star Harbour Win $4.60
• 2-Big Blue Nation

This is a no-play, but #3 is the lone speed.

Race Two
Another scramble, this time on turf.
The question is, which one will the crowd underbet?

• 1A Imaspeedyguy B
• 5 Alarmed Ndangerous B
• 3 Finn Again B Win $7.60
• 6 Mike And Rob B

Need 5-1 minimum on any of these "B" horses.

Race Three
Much easier.

• 8- Raynick's Jet. B+ need 3-1

Bad: Second try in the hands of an inexperienced trainer.
Good: Plenty of back class.

• 2-Metarus. B+ need 3-1 Place $4.00

Dropping after place.

Grade C longshots: 1-1a-3

Race Four
Essentially a two-horse event

• 1- Great Gracie Dane A
• 2- Miss Valentine A Win $3.80

God knows, the crowd will pound the value out of both.

Race Five

• 6- Titus Catienus B+ 3-1 Show $2.30.

Good: Just missed two races back.
Bad: Disastrous last, bled and vanned off.
Good: Class of the field plus Bruce Levine

• 3- Rutherford B. Huge drop, cut to sprint. Worth M/L of 15-1

Grade C longshots: 1

Race Six

• 9- Fair Trade. B Place $4.70

Okay, maiden's out of the way.

Grade C longshots: 1-2-3-4-8
2-The Snickers Kid might wire this thing. M/L 7:2

Race Seven

• 1-Magic Middleton A

Good: Bruce takes over.
Grade C longshots: 4-6
#4 Dodging, Win $5.90

Race Eight

• 4-Abilio A  Win $8.50

Good: Linda gave him a rest after easy win.
Bad: Corny V. on the turf.

Grade C longshots: 1-3-6
#3 will be horribly overbet based on a huge fig on sealed track.

Race Nine, The Jerome
Four speed horses will fight for the lead.

• 5- Right to Vote B

Grade B longshots:
1-The Lumber Guy has a chance to wire, will be overbet. Win $6.50
6-Adirondack King, sprint winner, new to AQU, OP was too tough.
3-Stirred Up. Maiden winner at SA, 2-1 M/L is an outrage.

Race Ten

• 12- The Vin Man B Monster closer on turf if he gets into the gate.

If #12 doesn't get in...

• 4-Kitten in May B Place $4.40

Great trainer and jockey, nice layoff.

Grade C longshots: 5-6-8