Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Saturday, April 07, 2012

RACING APRIL 7

LONGSHOT RACES:
With minimum odds....

AQUEDUCT:
Three: (6) Quorum 15/1 Toss mud, see form. 19-1  Ran sixth.

Four:   (8) Ecstatic Cat 5/1 Third race, good figs. 14-1 way out.
          (11) Say Mr. Sandman 10/1 Just missed. 17-1 ran sixth.
          (9) Patriottown 10/1 Second race, strong debut. 10-1 big fade.

Six:     (10) Unbrideld Kimanchi 12/1 New trainer.
           (11) Cribnote 5/1 Almost always at the finish. 9/2 way out.
            (3) Dan and Sheila 8/1 Toss Gotham.
            (7) Game Token 6/1 Two strong starter allowances. 15-1, third.

Eight: (3) Copy My Swagger 10/1 Needs to step up, might. 28-1 last.
          (5) King and Crusader 8/1 Toss Gotham, 3 wins. 15-1 pace, fade

Nine: (8) The Lumber Guy 12/1. Might like distance. 8-1 pace, fade.
          (7) Tiger Walk 15/1. May dodge his traffic troubles. 17-1, 4th.

Ten    (5) Shackleford 8/1 Might have found distance at last. 3-1, 3rd.

Eleven
          (1) Drink With Pride 5/1 Rested and on the rail 5-1, lead, fade.
          (11) Necaise 20/1 Could with a speedy garden trip. 17-1, fade

Aqueduct: 0-for-10

KEENELAND

One     (1) Letthebigtimesroll 10/1 Speed, class matches chalk. 9/2
            (2) Only Boy 9/1 New trainer. 9/1, 4th
            (9) Surfacant 15/1. Won last. 16-1, 6th
            (11) Practical Justice 15/1 Best race puts him in circle. 10-1, 3rd

Two      (2) Sicily 15/1 Back on winning surface 12-1, 5th
             (6) Da Nella 15/1 Won 2 of last 4 14-1, 8th.
            (11) Brandy's Secret 20/1 Speed in return.

Four     (11) Royal Start 12/1 Sharp speed last. 16-1, 2nd
            (8) Lotta Heart 9/1 Runs to January race, wins. 7/1, last.

Six        (3) Thomas Jefferson 12/1 Needs odds, great trip. 8/1, last.

Seven    (8) Strong Defence 15/1 Last was a workout for this sprint.

Eight     (2) Hard Not to Like 5/1 Turf form may translate 10/1, 2nd
            (8) Dixie Strike 8/1... Great late run, hates to lose. 6/1, 4th.

Nine      (1) Ninety Schillings 20/1 Chance if speed tires. 16/1, no move.

Keeneland 0-for-8, 2 places paid $25 total.


OAKLAWN

One       (2) Theatre of Dreams 9/1 Could wake up. 11/1 nothing.

Two      (4) Gentle Moment (10/1) Second race for fab trainer. 11/1, 4th

Three    (8) Time Sensitive 15/1 off vacation 13-1 nothing.
              (9) Winning Wildcat 9/1 Give new trainer a chance. 9/1, 5th
              (6) Storm Half  12/1 Recent were good enough. 18/1, 4th

Four      (2) Trust More 25/1
             (3) Kenny Boy 25/1 17-1 win.
             (4) Western Sun 15/1 Good enough to win. 3-1 2nd.
             (5) Jack Knife 12/1 Last two good enough. 6-1 nothing.
             (7) Langaleer 20/1 Ready now. 7-1 4th.
             (8) The Bay Phantom 5/1 Awesome race two back. 5-1 nada.
             (9) Cowboy Luke 30/1 Improving off layoff. 25/1 bum.
             (10) Mach Twelve 20/1 Three back, good enough 9-1 bum.
             (11) Garmento 6/1 New high-percent trainer. 8-1, 3rd.

Six       (3) Hands Off 15/1 Lightly raced, improving
             (11) Museum Tour 15/1 Who knows? Giant if right. 5/1, fade.
        
Nine     (3) Top Cat Boogie 12/1 Won last for this rider.  8-1, 3rd.      
          
Oaklawn 1-for-9, paid $37 win, $16 place. 

SANTA ANITA DERBY
Creative Cause has about a 50% to 60% chance. Worthy longshots and minimum prices:

  • Liaison 8/1... Crap luck in last two at SA. 6-1
  • Longview Drive 9/1...  Monster in the Sham. 24-1 pace, fade.
  • Midnight Transfer 12/1... Sharp in last SA two, Carla+Mike. 7-1.
  • Brother Francis 15/1 ... Three surfaces, three great finishes. 15-1.
An $8 bet would give you a 40% chance to at least double your money. Longview Drive is probably the best bet if he gets the odds target.


ILLINOIS DERBY
Currency Swap and Our Entourage should take all the money.
  • Done Talking, 20/1 ...Toss the hopeless Gotham, see two tough runs. 13-1 win.  Last race was first back, trainer angle 22% on 2nd layoff race... zero-class horse two back in G2, gained 5 lengths in stretch against class horses at 22-1. In that race he beat Our Entourage, who was the 4-1 favorite in this race. And this is why the class ratings work, because Done Talking earned a better number by beating Our Entourage...
  • Romancing the Gold, 15/1 ... 1x win better than it seems. 29-1.
Derbies 1-for 4 .
Done Talking paid $28 win and $11 place.


Total for the day: 2 wins, 31 bets, $62 in, $65 return.
Place bet totals: 4 wins, 31 bets, $62 in, $52 return.









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