OAKS DAY, CHURCHILL DOWNS

The crowd was sharp today, much sharper than my choices.


ONE: MAIDEN ROUTE
There's very little to separate the top four. They're all developing nicely. Short price unacceptable.

• 2 A Empress of Gold... 2nd from layoff, back to dirt.
• 4 B Tropic of Aquarius... 2nd from layoff, 3rd career race, improving.
• 3 C Virtuously .... 3rd career race, 2nd from layoff, first route, distance-bred.
• 6 D Reserved Indian... 3rd career race, first route.
  Wired by 5- Smooth Charm, the crowd's second choice at 3-1.
  

TWO: MAIDEN TURF MILE
Who knows? Will it even stay on the turf? ALL sorts of AE and MTO. Handicappers should boycott these kinds of races. They're great for trainers of mediocre horses, maybe. But why should we puzzle over pace, form, traffic etc only to have half these horses scratch out?

THREE MILE STARTER ALLOWANCE, FEMALES
Not a lot to separate the top three. Demand value.

• 5 A Golden Phoenix... 2-for-3 in Louisville. Powers through the pack.
• 4 B Goodnessgraciousme... 3 terrific sprints, first route.
• 6 C Juanita... new to Maker and that's a positive. Win 2-1.
  
• 1 D Dreaming of Donato.... Undefeated, layoff, and new to Woodward. That's good! But 7/2 ML is disastrous. Cheap winners can't be backed at short prices. Golden Phoenix, e.g., has many wins that match this horse's best one.

FOUR: 9 furlongs, Allowance 3x on turf.
The first two are in an absolute tie. Demand value.

• 3 A Deal Making. Three good races and R.A. up. Has been very tough in this exact, and rarely run, class.
• 9 B Guy's Reward: 8 straight good races, Julien up. Improved dramatically after layoff last summer. Win 2-1.
  
• 8 C Second from layoff, early fight in G1. Could win, but not worth 7/2 ML. More like 6/1.
• 2 D Layoff horse with hard luck jockey, nobody trainer. ML says 30/1 but should be 8/1. Capable of an outrageous charge from way back.

FIVE: 7 furlong optional claimer
The top horse here has an edge.

• 5 A Garnet Crystals... Ass kicker from Arkansas. Worth 2-1.
• 10 B Nakano... Ass kicker from New Orleans, but short on class. Figs will beguile the rubes, but this horse, needs to show more than maiden win.
• 1 C Sleepless Dixie.... layoff, Roise and Kelly
• 7 D Iones Folly... 4th best horse at 20/1, darkened form. Yipee.
• Crowd favorite 9-Might at 2-1.
  

SIX: LA TROIEN GRADE 2
These are the best horses running today. Speed duel involving 8-1-9 will determine the race. Taking Blind Luck out because she'll be overbet leaves us lots of opportunity. Yes, Blind Luck is good and might win. But her chances are probably around 12-15%.

• 8 A Unrivaled Belle... we'll take that Florida prep as a workout. Worth 2-1
• 9 B Absinthe Minded. Has wired this kind of race many times. 8/1 on the second best horse? We'll take it.
• 1 C Quiet Giant... last races were classier than they looked. Better than the 10/1 ML.
• 7 D Blind Luck... 9/5 ML is way too short for 4th best horse in the race. Bet against. Win 2-1
  

SEVEN: Edgewood Turf.
The first three horses are dead even. Play the tote.

• 4 A Bonita Star...Irish filly with sneaky-good win 2-back. ML 9/2 worth 3/1.
• 6 B Smart Sting... Two wins and a layoff. Worth 4/1
• 7 C Niji's Grand Girl... Tough in stretch of G2. 6/1 ML, and bettable at 8/1.
• 10 D Holidaysatthefarm... fitting name for a layoff horse in good hands. Don't be surprised if this one gets her picture taken.
• 2-Diva Ash, crowd's second choice at 7/2.
  

EIGHT: 8 Belles sprint.
The "A" horse is far superior if she can accomplish the comeback trick.

• 3 A Pomeroy's Pistol... class dominates, layoff the question. Worth 2/1
• 1 B Arienza... three good races down in Hot Springs. But can't touch the #7 if that one's in form.
• 7 C Honey Chile... 2nd from the layoff and good trainer. Should be double the 5/1 ML.
• 4 D Holiday Flare... Loves to win but has never faced this much class. 9/2 ML is way short.
• 8-Victoria's Wildcat, 5th choice at 6-1
  

NINE: ALYSHEBA G3
Another race with a tough competitive field. Low price horses are toss outs. The first three horses are true equals

• 5 A Giant Oak.... Donn winner, and lots of place-shows. Typical closer.
• 3 B Icabod Crane... Graham Motion layoff races are a break-even proposition.
• 6 C Mission Impazable... three hot heats.
• 7 D First Dude... Won't bet on a horse named after Todd Palin. Win 7:2
  

TEN: American Turf G2.
The #7 is worth considering if the odds really do settle at 20/1

• 14 A Surrey Star 4/1 ML but worth 5/2
• 2 B Great Mills... Four awesome races, but a touch short on class.
• 13 C Air Support... Won layoff race from way back.
• 7 D Man of Strife... sneaky good trainer, plus Rosie. Live longshot at 20/1
• 3-Banned, crowd favorite at 3-1
  

ELEVEN: OAKS G1
The "A" and "B" are well matched, and superior to the rest. But the tote may indicate a play on the "A" horse. Since the two are equals, the one carrying the better price may be played.

• 6 A Zazu.... West Coast star has 6 great races in 7 tries. Worth 4/1 ML
• 1 B Joyful Victory ... Two laughers at Oaklawn for Jones and Smith. 5/2 ML but no better than #6.
• 4 C Kathmanblu... toss the poly clunker to see a monster horse. Julien knows her well. Worth 6/1 if you can get it.
• 11 D Holy Heavens... has finished well "underneath" and nice fill for exotics.
• 3-Plum Pretty, 4th choice at 6-1.
  

TWELVE:
Go home already. Or bet #4 Air Guitar if you can get 2/1 or better.
(Failed at even money)