Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Thursday, May 05, 2011

DERBY DAY

# RATING/ COMMENT
ONE
  • 5 (28) Southern Ocean. Has already won a starter allowance. Three strong races, thriving under owner-trainer.
  • 6 (26) Mississippi Money. Maiden winner and improving.
  • 3 (26) Hampton Bays Son... Toss sloppy race, won maiden on turf. Little experience on dirt. No tactical speed.
  • 4 (26) Uncle Pink. Maiden turf winner, laid off, unimpressive trainer. Win 5-1
TWO
  • 2 (36) Bind. Crushed maiden, just missed first allowance. Place 3/5
  • 4 (36) Worldly. Off seven months, working nicely, dubious trainer record, 6-1 maybe. Win 5-2.
  • 5 (33) Supreme Ruler. Supreme in maiden, subordinate since.
  • 8 (33) Lubango. Sharpening, but no proven class.

THREE
  • 2 (29) Golden Triumph. Promising first effort, with early speed.
  • 6 (28) Hot Pursuit. Off, working nicely, a 14% comeback rate. 8-1 maybe.
  • 9 (27) Tyrus. Four tries, seems to be declining, may like Calvin and CD.
  • 8 (27) Santo Gato. 2nd from layoff. Hasn't shown a thing on dirt, certainly not worth 3-1 as the morning line suggests.
  • Firster wins at 4/5
FOUR
  • 4 (37) Persuading. Toss that dirt race to see four sharp ones on the green.
  • 7 (35) Perfect Shirl. Follows up a sharp layoff race. Grade 2 Winner has a big chance.
  • 8 (35) Snowtop Mountain. Second from the layoff and capable, top turf jock. Win 8/5.
  • 9 (35) Miss Luann. Sharp on poly, but lone turf race stunk, and she's way behind the others in proven class.
FIVE
  • 2 (33) Saratoga Red. Maiden win, then put in two impossible spots.
  • 4 (33) Depehe Cat. Three sharp races, second from layoff.
  • 5 (31) Goodtimehadbyall. Two month layoff with 10% return. No tactical speed. Win 10-1
  • 3 (31) Fusa Code. Super maiden win, toss the G3. Great J&T combo, good at CD
SIX
  • 8 (38) Bridgetown. History says 50% chance here.
  • 5 (38) Chamberlain Bridge. Ditto.
  • 3 (40) Custom for Carlos. Great sprinter, but not on grass.
  • 7 (39) Early Return. No early speed, poor record on turf.
SEVEN
  • 7 (42) Hilda's Passion. A 23% layoff chance, fab jockey and trainer.
  • 4 (41) Amen Hallelujah. Tough runs in graded races. A"Newbie" trainer
  • 8 (38) Tidal Pool. Two wins were equivalent to graded races.
  • 5 (38) Shotgun Gulch. Last wins in mud and on plastic.

EIGHT
  • 11 (39) Never Retreat. Never does. Seven strong ones.
  • 7 (38) Fantasia. No speed, 1 win in 7 tries in U.S.
  • 2 (37) Upperline. Two strong wins, Rosie and Stidham a plus.
  • 6 (37) Three wins, long layoff, sharp workout.

NINE
  • 6 (42) Captain Candmancan. Absolutely awesome.
  • 3 (42) Apriority. Six sharp races.
  • 2 (42) Smiling Tiger. Two straight wins.
  • 4 (40) Four sharp ones.
TEN
  • 12 (40) Court Vision. Maybe the gallant old gent is starting to fade
  • 5 (40) Prince Will I Am. Turf monster, beat him to win
  • 15 (40) Carcortado. Close in last three turf.
  • 3 (40) Teaks North. Right there in last two turf.
ELEVEN KENTUCKY DERBY
  • 8 *40* Dialed In: Fla derby closed on 14-second pace
  • 17 *39* Soldat: 13-second str in fountain of youth
  • 1 *39* Archarcharch: Ark derby win closing 13-second pace
  • 14 *37* Shackleford: 13-second win, mile allowance
  • 4 *37* Stay Thirsty: Closed on 12.5 pace in Gotham
  • 18 *37* Uncle Mo: Wired at 11+ str in Timely Writer (mile, very slow early fractions)
  • 15 36 Midnight Interlude: 12-sec move SA derby
  • 13 36 Mucho Macho Man: sharp 12+ La Derby
  • 19 36 Nehro: Gaining on 12+ La Derby
  • 7 36 Pants on Fire: 12-sec win La Derby
  • 16 36 Animal Kingdom: 13-sec move in Spiral. Win 20-1
  • 2 36 Brilliant Speed: 12-sec rush on Poly, Bluegrass
  • 6 36 Comma to the Top: 12+ just missed SA Derby
  • 5 36 Decisive Moment: Losing in 13+ second Spiral
  • 12 36 Santiva: Fade in 12+ Bluegrass
  • 3 35 Twice the Appeal: 13+ str Sun Derby
  • 10 35 Twinspired: Just missed at 12+ Bluegrass
  • 9 34 Derby Kitten: 12-sec in short Lexington, poly
  • 11 34 Master of Hounds dirt?
  • 20 33 Watch Me Go Awful at 13+ Hawthorne

TWELVE
  • 9 37 SIX SHARP, CALVIN
  • 4 35 X2, WIN
  • 8 34 DULL Win 8-1.
  • 5 32 L2 22%, WON THIS LEVEL

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