MAKIN BETS ON KENTUCKY DERBY DAY....

DERBY HORSES RANKED BY SPEED-CLASS POINTS

More a freak show than a horse race, the Kentucky Derby is a hard race to handicap. None of the horses have run this distance before. All are still developing their talents. With 20 horses in the gate, the traffic problems will be severe. Luck will play a tremendous role. The best horse probably will not win, due to the problems of traffic and pace. Nevertheless, we can identify those horses who've won the toughest races, coming into the Derby. The top three are:

• Uncle Mo......(39) has the strongest win, front runner.
• Dialed In ......(39) runs late, will have traffic problems, but has the best distance breeding of these three.
• Soldat...........(39) frontrunner who flamed out in Florida Derby. But has a convincing wire-to-wire win at a 1-1/8 mile.

The break will be all-important here as two of the best horses will be trying to lead the way: Soldat and Uncle Mo. If they both get clean breaks, will they wear each other out over the long distance? Don't be surprised if Soldat leads Uncle Mo at the second call. Given this likely speed duel, Dialed In has a real chance late if he can stay clear of traffic jams. Leparoux is famous for his ability to reserve some of a horse's energy for the stretch run.

Uncle Mo has the best single win, his romp at the Breeder's Cup back in November. We'd say fair odds on any of these are in the range of 5:1 through 8:1

• Archarcharch (37) has better distance breeding than Dialed in, got no respect in Arkansas where he won at 14-1 and 25-1. Will be rushing up late if traffic permits.
• Stay Thirsty (37) mid-pack runner who won a weak Gotham and flopped in Florida. A lucky trip could certainly get him roses. But he'll have to run the race of his life.

• Shackelford (36) proved the equal of Dialed In at the Florida Derby, but the races before that weren't ultra-classy. Could be he's a late bloomer and a danger. Definitely a gamer.
• Mucho Macho Man (36) a pace horse with a New Orleans win on his resume and that's about it. Not impossible with the right trip. But not likely either. Has been fairly sharp in the stretch over the last two races, but doesn't have a thoroughly seasoned trainer.
  

• Comma to the Top (35) has tired in the stretch of his last two dirt races, and that's not a good sign.
• Pants on Fire (35) Peaked with a just-win at the Louisianna Derby. Has been beaten twice by Mucho Macho Man.Would love to see Rosie in the roses, but...
  

If all the horses above leap the rail and go into the the stands for a beer, one of these contenders might have a chance.

• Twinspired (34) One miserable run on real dirt. Otherwise, turf and plastic.
  
• Nehro (34)
• Brilliant Speed (34)
• Santiva (34) Shoulda won the Risen Star, had position.
  
• Decisive Moment (34) Probably peaking but it won't be enough. Cannot help but wilt in the speed duel.
  
• Watch Me Go (33) Couldn't handle Chicago traffic.
  
• Midnight Interlude (33) proved himself only once in Santa Anita Derby. Baffert's the bossman. Could be very well prepared and peaking.
  
• Master of Hounds (33) has run 1-3/16 mile nicely on Dubai poly
  
• Twice the Appeal (33) Calvin is always an asset in Louisville. The prep was weak, though.
  
• Animal Kingdom (33) Woke up in big Poly race. Trainer says he would be shocked by win.
  
• Derby Kitten (32) Your basic turf horse.
  

Speed out of the gate: Soldat, Uncle Mo, Flashpoint, Stay Thirsty.
Stretch runners: Dialed In, Archarcharch, Midnight Interlude, Nehro, Animal Kingdom, Brilliant Speed