Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

CLAIMING CROWN

Minimum prices: A HORSES 3/2, B HORSES 3/1, C HORSES 6/1

RACE 3: THE IRON HORSE.
With 4 real contenders, there's no sense in taking anything much under 4:1 is there?
  • 4 Mr. Meso (B) 3X WON LAST 3. 9 years old, 20-for-56 career. Loser at Aqueduct, monster at Delaware. Robby up. 2.40-1.
  • 1 Calm And Collected (B) 6X WON SLOP. Even if you toss the last race as a sloppy fluke, he's still a contender on speed figs. 7 wins in his last 10. Rose up. 2.20-1.
  1. 2 Bright Hall (C) 4X LAYOFF 5-for-8 lately. If sound, could be the 2nd best horse in the race. Win 3.30-1
  • 3 Roboponi (C) 2X WON LAST Given the competition, he's probably better win-place. 8.20-1
  • 10 Mister Merz. (NR) Wacky longshot for sure, but 4/4 on the local surface. And 7/5 career odds. Likes to win and is home, so worth considering if absolutely outrageous odds. 10.70-1
$12 exacta $12.60.


RACE 4: TIARA TURF FOR FILLES AND MARES.
Which one of these fine females will the crowd neglect? That's the question since there's no legitimate favorite.
  • 6 R Vicarious Girl 3/1 (B) 1x WON LAST 6. Florida horse is even-money for her career, and winner of a phenomenal 6 in a row. Rosemary Junior rides and she is marvelous on turf and has won at least 6 times on this mare. 3.90-1
  • 1 Love To Tell 2/1 (B) 4x (CLASS) SPEED, FADE. 5/2 career odds, but has been run far too ambitiously in most of her races. She has the most proven class and while not worth a bet-down, certainly is a contender at middling prices.1.40-1
  • 5 Mizzcan'tbewrong 7/2 (B) 3x WON LAST 2, and five of her last 10. Trainer brought Mizz to Canterbury early, where she won a laugher as a tuneup for this one. Robby will be up, and he can negotiate a grass course. She's won on the course, and no other has... 2.10-1
  • 2 Bartok's Bling 5/1 (C) 1x OFF 120, NEWT. We can assume that Lloyd Mason claimed this horse specifically for this race. He has Russell Baze up, so you'll get a ride.Bartok's last turf race was good enough to win here, so can't dismiss at big odds. 630.1
$12 exacta $6.10

RACE 5: THE RAPID TRANSIT...
3-1 minimum on any of these...
  • 2 Max Ahead 5/2 (B) 1x WON LAST THREE. 2:1 odds in last two years of racing. 4 wins in last 10. The Frenchman can't hurt. Definitely qualified to run a good dirt race.3.00-1.
  • 6 All Joking Aside 5/1 (B) 2x JUST MISSED last time, 4 wins in last 10.6.20-1
  • 1 Grand Traverse 2/1 (B) 6x (CLASS) WAY BACK. 3:1 career. 2 wins in last 10. Has run convincingly in starter and handicap races. Has been in lots of tough spots.1.00-1
$6 exacta 0.

RACE 6: THE EXPRESS
There should be no favorite here. The only thing to do is watch to see which one the crowd lets go at higher odds. 5:1 would be a swell idea.
  • 2 Norjac 4/1 (B) 5x WON LAST. Jeremy Rose up and has won 6 of last 10. Has best speed at the distance and good figs, but plenty of competition.
  • 8 Ready's Rocket 3/1 (B) 1x (CLASS) WON LAST 2. Has won only 3 of last 10, but that last win, at Churchill in a Starter, was big. Should be in top form.
  • 5 Justa Streak 12/1 (C) 1x SHOW Talent, but no early speed. If the speedsters here wear each other down, look out for Justa.
  1. 9 Chasing the Prize 7/2 (C) 3x LAYOFF. Has won 7 of last 10.2.20-1
$12 exacta $15.10

RACE 7: THE GLASS SLIPPER...
There is a legit favorite here, and at least 3 worth a look if they drift to something ridiculous like 6-1....
  • 4 Miranda Diane 4/1 (A) 3x (CLASS) SPEED, FADE. Looks dominant. May be the rare worthy favorite. Winner of 6 in 10 down in Oklahoma, including a couple of big wins in stakes races. 2.60.1
  • 1 Thunder And Belle 6/1 (C) 1x LAYOFF, WON, NEWT. Only 3-for-10, but won a Canterbury prep and has a top local boy up. Has lost a lot of races against thinner competition, though. May be worth heavy odds on the horses-for-courses theory. 7.40-1
  • 3 Gatorize 5/1 (C) 1x WON LAST. Won a Starter at Churchill under Robbie, and he's back in the irons today. At 3-for-10 not a habitual winner but in top form.2.60-1
  • 7 Met a Miner 3/1. (C) 3x WON FOUR OF LAST FIVE. Beat nobodies on the Maryland circuit, but has won easily many times. Scott Lake claimed her five races back and suddenly she's a star. Hmmm. Ran out of conditions, won a starter, and now he ships her in here. Not worth punk odds, but good if longshot. 2.70-1
$12 exacta 0

RACE 8: THE EMERALD TURF
Lots and lots of possibilities here, maybe the most competitive race on the card. There absolutely should be no cheap favorite.
  • 7 T Harry 12/1 (B) 1x LAYOFF, WON LAST (TURF) 7-for-18 on the grass, with Albarado up. Okay, that Delaware race was probably a fluke, but the ML odds of 12:1 are too fat. This horse is competitive. 4.10-1
  • 10 Stormy Surge 10/1 (C) 1x JUST MISSED. Only 3-for-13 on the turf. Has the stones to win with a good trip, and so worth a plunge at long odds.
  • 3 Hard Top 1 0/1 (C) 3x WAY BACK Only 6-for-25 on the turf, but five of his last six races have been good enough to win this.6.20-1
  • 11 Drivingmaxandmitzi 6/1 (C) 1x WON LAST. Best speed at distance. Has won 8 of last 10, and the last win was over the Canterbury turf. This horse has survived claim after claim and just keeps winning no matter who owns him. 7.70-1
  • 9 Trying Brian 12/1 (C?) 1x WON LAST, NOT TURF. This horse is in the mix strictly because he's trained by Mac Robertson. Mac claimed him, got the horses's best win out of him in the next start, on poly up in Shee-Kaw-Go. The ML is generous. Could win! 15.00-1
$12 exacta o

RACE 9: THE JEWEL
The only horses who have run this exact distance (9 furlongs) are Fancy Runner and Antrim County. There is no dominant horse and should be no cheap favorite.
  • 5 Antrim County 2/1 (C) 1x SHOW. Has a show at the distance. The ML maker seems to think he deserves to be the favorite, a stance that is flat out ridiculous. He's one of many who have a real chance, and anything under 6:1 is uncouth, uncalled for and just plain uncivilized. 4.40-1
  • 2 Furthest Land 5/2 (B) 4x WON LAST. Essentially a turf runner who shows no recent routes on real dirt. A contender, but certainly not at low odds. .90-1
  • 3 Repenting 8/1 (B) 3x (CLASS) WON LAST Jamie Ness, who knows Canterbury well, ships in this horse who's 3-for-10 on poly and dirt, and has routed. The last win, on poly, was the classiest of any in this race. 11.30-1
  • 6 Glamour Guy 7/2 (C) 2x WON LAST 2-for-10, including a shorter route with energy to spare. Really a 6:1 horse, but would be no surprise to see his nose on the wire. 3.10-1
  • 4 Fancy Runner 5/1 (C) 2x SHOW. Only 1-for-10 lately, but has been run far, far too ambitiously. Lake probably claimed him with this race in mind. Has 3 wins at the distance and is the only horse for whom that's true. Is 2-1 fair odds at the distance, and 6/1 here would be bet worthy. 8.20-1.
$12 exacta $35.40

RACE 10: THE LADY CANTERBURY TURF MILE
  • 2 Euphony 9/5 (A) 5x (CLASS) WON LAST 6. May be that rare thing, a genuine favorite. This horse has won on every surface known to man, and a few known only to horses. Anything like 2-1 seems fair, but no lower. Her races on turf are nowhere near as dominant as on poly/dirt. And there are plenty of others here who've run just as well on the green...
  • 1 Quiet Queen 8/1 (C) 2x has 4 turf races good enough to win here. Absolutely should not be neglected at the windows, despite what ML suggests. 16.40-1.
  • 4 Happiness Is 7/2 (C) 1x Five of her turf races were competitive with today's demands. The ML is way too stingy, but at 6:1.... 4.20-1
  • 6 Adhsilver 6/1 (B) 2x MEDIOCRE. Has run only two turf races, but both were good enough to win this. So hey, the ML would be fabulous.
  • 3 Fabulous Babe 6/1 (C) 0x PLACE Already beaten by Euphony and one other in here, so would need to be really neglected on the board to be worth a bet. Maybe 10:1? Does know the local grass and has the track's best trainer....
$12 exacta 10.50

RACE 11, LOCAL CLAIMER
  • 3 Spiced Up Ghazi 3/1 (B) 2x WAY BACK
  • 4 Corksapopin 2/1 (B) 1x (CLASS) SPEED, FADE .80-1
  • 6 Jestintime 6/1 (C) 2x WAY BACK

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