Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Thursday, May 28, 2009

CANTERBURY MAY 30

It looks chalky today... 
Horses listed with Morning Line odds and ABC rating.
  • Easiest and most profitable strategy:
  • Play all the rated horses in the exotics.
  • Bet to win on any that go off at 5-1 or better.
WE HAD WINNERS IN 6 OF THE 8 RACES, BUT MADE ALL THE REAL MONEY ON THE EARLY TRIPLE.

RACE ONE
2 Tahitian Queen 2/1 (A) Tammy came here to win, obviously. This horse woke up at CBY, and is the speed horse with the most stamina.
  • This race starts a playable triple. The A horses will cost $1. The A-B-A ticket will cost $1. The A-CC-A another $2. 

RACE TWO

3 Dreamsforever 8/5 (A) 7 wins, new trainer, class of the field.

6 Aloha Richter 7/2 (B) Proven winner at 4-for-11, but probably needs this tune-up.

1 Igloo Annie 8/1 (C) Speed on the rail and new trainer.

5 Real Quiet Lady 8/1 (X) Champ’s daughter proves theory of regression to the mean.

4 Cousin Sue 4/1 (C) Certainly capable off the layoff, but would need outrageous price.

RACE THREE

2 Zack Cape 5/2 (A) Mac picks Stevens for this ride, which is a bit of a mystery. This horse has been racing way too high and now settles for a claiming race. Won his only race in Shakopee…

$4 CHALKY PICK 3 PAYS $67.50!

  • Here's another cheap triple opportunity. A-B-AA is $2. A-CC-AA is $4.
  • It's also the beginning of the $2 Pick-6. A-B-AA-A-A-A is a $4 guppie bite. The max caveman ticket would be: A-BCC-AA-AC-AB-A or $48.

RACE FOUR

The Beyer/Prime players will be going after the curiously named Joshka Boshie. He is a classic sucker horse, with 5 places in 7 tries. He’s never run over the green stuff or at a distance. The fair price for a Mac horse on first route/first grass is 12/1. So if Joshka beats me at 7/2, I don’t care. How about:

 5 Catch A Cat Thief 6/1 (B) Trainer has shown some ability to prep a grass horse, and Nolan can ride turf longshots pretty well.

2 Walking Bob 5/1 (C) New trainer, better odds, and just as much grass route experience as Joshka.

4 Laredo Silver 4/1 (C) 0-for-10 on the turf, but there’s a longshot chance he’ll like Canterbury’s grass. 

RACE FIVE

4 Tytus 2/1 (A)

8 Chasm 7/2 (A)

These two in a box over all for the trifecta. Which is the horse player’s way of saying, they are in a class by themselves—at least against this cast of characters.

  • The 50-cent pick-4 begins here. AA-AC-AB-A. $4. 

RACE SIX

2 To Be Continued 4/1 (A) Vonrosen for me is a longshot jockey, but in this sprint, on this horse, I’ll take small odds. This filly placed in her layoff race…

3 Marina Nolan 10/1 (C) With 5 speed horses bursting from the gate, Marina and Scott Stevens have a chance to lope across the finish line past a whole bunch of tiring horses. At the listed odds, $2 win and $5 place wouldn’t be a bad idea.

  •  Last triple for thoroughbreds today. AC-AB-A $4.

RACE SEVEN

5 Dawn Raider 5/2 (A) Ignore that Florida clunker. Has proven really tough on Canterbury turf.

1 Winter Trick 4/1 (B) Your basic 5-1 horse, in his 9th year, he ran okay in his layoff race and at the very least needs to be considered underneath.

 RACE EIGHT

9 Buckin' Outright 3/1 (A) Ran with enthusiasm in her first and only race. Goodwin does markedly better with speed horses than with other types, and Buckin’ needs a good gate jockey from this far out post.

 


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