BELMONT DAY

RACE ONE
3 Inger Management 5/2 {A} Obvious chalk
5 Living Out A Dream 8/1 {B} Domingues switches to "nobody" trainer on horse rising in class. Hmmmm.
1 Dixieland Star 2/1 {B} Not inherently superior and unworthy chalk after that long layoff.
7 Justin P 30/1 {C} Owner takes over his own horse. Closer for place/show.

RACE TWO
6 Much The Best 8/5 {A} The best? Maybe, but not by much. May weaken late.
7 Just Ben 3/1 {A} Keeps getting better and ready to fire.
3 Speight Of Hand 7/2 {A} Well prepared and has the inside post.
Meaning take the price horse or box 'em all up.

RACE THREE
10 Allrightsreserved 7/2 {A}

RACE FOUR
7 Pennington 12/1 {B}
2 Expansion 3/1 {B}
1 Spurred 9/2 {B}
3 Slam Dunk 5/1 {B}

RACE FIVE
8 My Man Lars 12/1 {B}
13 Hangingbyathread 6/1 {B}

RACE 6: THE TRUE NORTH
1 Benny the Bull. 5/2. It's not often a sprint closer is a legit chalk and single...

PICK 3: 1 WITH 4,5,8,2 WITH 2,1,8: = $12

RACE 7, JUST A GAME (TURF)
4 I Lost My Choo 15/1 He's 7-for-12 on the turf and going off at 15-1?
5 Forever Together 6/5 Should be be this chalk and unproven over the local peat moss?
8 My Princess Jess 5/1 She's 2-for-3 at Elmont and 5-1?
2 Raw Silk 10/1 Won his last so why a big longshot?

RACE 8, THE WOODY STEPHENS

2 This Ones For Phil 7/2 Should be 10-1. Could win. Jeb Bush could win the White House too, but don't bet on it.
1A Everyday Heroes 2/1 Yeah, sure, but will be overbet.
1 Regal Ransom 2/1 Fool that I am, I'm tossing the Arab chalk. His partner of course is the big kahuna in this coupling.
8 Hull 3/1 Hoping this speedball drifts up in odds as the crowd goes nuts for the "bargain" entry.

RACE 9, THE ACORN

8 Justwhistledixie 8/5 Winner of 5 straight and obvious chalk.

7 Dream Play 6/1 Worth a flyer if those odds hold Could wire the race with right break.

PICK 3: 7,8 WITH 3,12,6,5,11,15,2 WITH 2,6,7= $42.

RACE 10, THE MANHATTAN
Any of 8 horses could win here, so 7-1 seems a minimum odds...

3 Marsh Side 20/1 Who cares what he did in Dubai? This horse is 3-1 in his career, and beat Champs Elysee at Woodbine at 29-1. Has run tough many times, and would be outrageous bargain at the ML.

12 Cowboy Cal 3/1 No doubt this Giant's Causeway colt is a contender. Odds are the only question.

6 Wesley 12/1 L Just as good as the Cowboy, and 4 times the price. It doesn't hurt that his jock is a turf genius.

9 Cosmonaut 6/1 L 35. A good bet underneath in the exacta. Would not be a shock in the winners circle.

11 Lauro 15/1 Dismissed because of "nobody" trainer/jockey. Has the foundation for a longshot win.

1 Court Vision 4/1 You just can't toss him and his jockey makes few mistakes.

5 Gio Ponti 7/2 Grassy jock, loves Belmont, loves the turf, odds are the real question.

2 Champs Elysees 12/1 Can't count him out but would need gigantic odds against this field.

10 Interpatation 20/1 Hint to trifecta players: Loves to show.

AND NOW THE ALSO RANS...

8 Better Talk Now 15/1 I'd love to see Gramps win, but wouldn't bet on it. Dominguez is looking elsewhere, and after a 10-ride drought, you can't blame him.

2B Zambezi Sun 12/1 No way.

4 Premium Gold 20/1 No way again.

7 Senior 50/1 Ridiculous.

1A Optimer 4/1 Should be scratched, just for the sake of common decency.


RACE 11, THE BELMONT...
Crist writes in his blog that Mine That Bird might be a bargain at 7-5 or so. At these odds he would be 3 times as likely to win as Dunkirk.

Now nobody doubts the heart of the little gelding, nor the skill of the Jockey of the Month, but jeez...

Let's see here, are we handicapping the horses or handicapping the crowd? Because if we're handicapping the horses, I'll take Mine That Bird too. Because if we were only handicaping the horses, he'd be 9-1. It's the crowd that's going to bet him down, and the question is, what is the dividing line between a winning and a losing price?

There's money to be made betting against the hype horse, and I wish I had a thousand hours to spare to prove it, but time and again the Form has focused on a horse in a big race, which only drives the poor animal's price beyond the Point of No Return.

As in the stock market, the populi jumps in too late, after the winner has peaked. Mine That Bird is now the obvious chalk. He has peaked. Can he keep his peak for one more race? Maybe. But it wouldn't take much trouble or bad luck to keep him off the board. And that's a chance I won't be taking at 7-5 as the reward...



1 Chocolate Candy 10/1 reputation rests on 3 not overly impressive California races. He beat nobody in two of them. Breeding says he can't handle the distance.

2 Dunkirk 4/1 Has won allowance races that were better than any of Chocolate's stakes races. Best distance breeding. Toss the Derby and the only horse that has whupped him has been Quality road.

3 Mr. Hot Stuff 15/1 Off a maiden win on poly?

4 Summer Bird 12/1 Strong in Hot Springs. Over his head here.

5 Luv Gov 20/1 One for 11. But is Lukas going to tell Mary Lou she's out of her mind?

6 Charitable Man 3/1 Proven in Elmont. Perfect on dirt. Distance breeding. ML 2nd choice for a reason.

7 Mine That Bird 2/1 Distance and breeding for it is the real question. But if the ML odds hold, is he really twice the horse that Dunkirk is?

8 Flying Private 12/1 Best longshot. Does not have distance breeding. But his poor record is the result of Lukas' ambition. Has often outrun his odds and gets a good stretch run.

9 Miner's Escape 15/1 Never dismiss a 3-year-old who's rapidly improving and had won 2 in a row. Longshot, yes, impossible no.

10 Brave Victory 15/1 Your basic sprinter.

WIN: DUNKIRK, CHARITABLE MAN, MINE THAT BIRD.
PLACE: FLYING PRIVATE, MINER'S ESCAPE.