Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

HAW, LAST SATURDAY IN NOVEMBER

ONE, ALLOWANCE ROUTE
115.1 Frank's Time 81@115 good races at distance.
114.9 Red Chill 82@115 ditto, and these top two horses are about equal.
113.9 Calzone 81@112 New trainer, good jockey, probably overmatched.
113.2 Charlie Baby 80@114 but mediocre finish and in slop. Not in love with HAW.

TWO, 6F MAIDEN
111.8 Runningatem 78@112 Jockey/trainer 3/1 $3.80.
111.7 Caller A Classic 71@112. Woulda won last, if a sprint. Good jock, place last.
110.1 Itsallminebabe 81@112. Peaking now.
110.2 Glitterbrat 76@110 Only HAW race a clunker. Trainer/jock are 4/1.

THREE, 6F OPTIONAL CLAIMER
117.2 Nicks 93@118. Three in a row, top trainer, jockey $3.00
115.1 Ally's Little Sis 83@114. Probably in a deep funk after last.
112.8 Taylor Madison 64@110. Speed after layoff, best spd/distance, has won better races 3X.

FOUR, CLAIMING ROUTE
113.1 Seeyouinnewyork 83@115. Toss last to see nice race. Decent jock, lousy d/s
112.9 La Joyeria 79@114. Good jock, toss turf to okay race. Top d/s
113.4 Sanpit Cart 79@113, Good jock, decent last.
113.6 Flirtin' With Fire 78@113 trainer, jockey, rail bias, honest dropper. Good d/s $5.80
114.4 Turbulent Thinking 77@114, 8yo with lotsa wins on HAW.
114.9 Wildwood Ella 75@113, Trainer finally realized this is not a turf horse, lousy d/s.

FIVE, MAIDEN TWO YEAR OLDS.
On the theory of skipping the worst race on the card, we pass.

SIX, MAIDEN CLAIMING SPRINT WITH FIRSTERS.
108.1 C C On The Rocks
107.5 Valid Hope $6.20 Prime one, appears in all four boxes.
107.4 Barassie Pass
107.2 Margret S.
107.1 Sky High Spirit
106.9 Tahitian Queen

SEVEN, CLAIMING SPRINT, LOTSA CONTENDERS.
Ferocious pace wins this.
But the pace should be slow here.
107.8 A Through Z 86@112. Won last. 12/1 ML and 2nd on d/s list.
109.8 Fearless Morgan 82@112. At 1/19, does fear winning. As does trainer. $10.60 Appears in two boxes: SLR and S/D.
111.1 Cart Martial 80@112. Two good finishes. Jockey? Trainer?
111.1 Holly At Law 77@112. Needs frantic pace to score.
109.9 Surely Jackson 77@110. Declining. Good jockey.
109.6 Marys Message 71@111. Never showed up in HAW race. Sharp trainer, tho, and drops.
111.0 Fandemonium 69@111. Best closer. But 0/6 at HAW. Likely to hit board, though. Only win came on ridiculous meltdown pace on poly.
109.5 Anger Rising 59@106. Long layoff, returns after horrible claim. Will soon fall back.


EIGHT, CLAIMING SPRINT, DITTO.FULL FIELD.
Severe early speed bias. Many of these horses have a real shot. Dutch.
El Secret Weapon leads a fairly strong pace and fades.
In a big field, somebody's going to get shut out. The two power stretch runners are...
112.0 Preachinupastorm 80@113, just missed, mid pack runner.
111.0 Wedding Crasher 82@113 just missed, must come from behind to win, and it's crowded.
110.9 Southern Vision 77@111. Big win on off track, otherwise.... Good jock stays up, breaks well.
110.4 Ace Afleet 74@111 no speed. Best record of all: 2/8. And 2/6 with this trainer.
110.0 Comic King 71@110. Recent win vs. similar.
------ B Like a Lion 71@110 A front runner, at least.
110.3 Off The Table 67@110, AE. Off form.
110.1 El Secret Weapon 66@108. 20% trainer on drop. No stretch power.
Hangover Cure $74.60 5-1 based on record in last 10. Dramatic improvment in form, but you have to look closely to see it.

NINE, BOTTOM LEVEL CLAIMING SPRINT
113.8 Campo
113.5 Apt To Shine
113.2 Whatsat
112.6 Get In Gear
112.6 Salty Celebration
112.5 Bea Image
112.4 Accountable
111.8 Tak Man
Solid Trip $19.60 26%JT Won 2 back, faded last after bad start, wide trip.

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