SARATOGA, TRAVERS DAY

It looks like a day to bet longshots. There's only one no-brainer on the card.

ONE: Scramble. Looking for odds of about 6-1. Best: On Board Again, 2nd start after layoff, and two sharp G3 races.

TWO: Spaniard. Improving, fought hottest pace.

THREE: Tiz It, likely favorite, is a quitter. Longshots: Prince Omar. Early speed against ferocious pace. Rio Maggiore. Bred to win. Perfect Precisions. Ditto.

FOUR: Turf scramble. Question: What is Prado doing on longshot Dazzling Derek? Severe rail bias. But since the inside horses look weak, I'd pick El Amir to win from the 9-hole, based on powerful stretch run and good jock.

FIVE: Maiden turf route. Intercoastal. Others have more bad races.

SIX: Al Nasr Dream. Kinnealy's first start in US worth 7/1. Horse has inside track and classy races across the pond.

SEVEN: Key Event, class of the field, comes back after a year, but what's with the exercise rider? Choice: Sir Lowry, based on Kee race.

EIGHT: The Victory Ride
Indyanne will be 3/5.
Longshot: More Happy. Speed, tired and has won a 118.
Palanka City: Won 117.
Port Bohheur: Won 117.


NINE: Baruch, 9 furlong turf scramble with 6 tough guys...
Proudinsky, 2/3 distance, no SAR. Proven win 120. Bred for distance.
Drum Major. 1/4 distance. 0/2 SAR. Proven win 119.
Operation Red Dawn 1/5 distance. 0/2 SAR. Proven win 119. Marathon bred.
Distorted Reality 1/3 distance. 0/3 SAR. Proven win 119.
War Monger 1/2 distance, 1/3 SAR. Proven win 119
Thorn Song 1/3 distance, 2 wins SAR. Proven win 118.

Proudinsky is the class of the race, and can be played at a price.

TEN: King's Bishop. Six horses (5 with the entry) could win.

J Be K 2/2 at distance, will lead and fade and the pace will be honest/fast. He has not faced horses of this quality in the stretch.
Kodiak Cowboy is 4/4 good races at 6.5 and 7.5 furlongs.
Desert Key is 2/3, and is bred for this exact distance.
Kodiak Cowboy and Desert Key matched last race. I'd play whichever one the crowd neglects, and plunk a few bucks on a straight reverse exacta.
Golden Spikes will be tough throughout. 1/1 good race at rough distance.
Lantana Mob has late energy.
Gentleman James, a longshot, should be considered for the filler spots.

ELEVEN: Travers.
1-Tale of Ekati. Has been tired in his two longer races, and off form lately.
2- Colonel John. Californian didn't like only dirt start.
3- Da Tara. Does have that long Belmont win, but got away with soft late fractions.
4- Tiz Big. No, tiz impossible.
5- Macho Again. Rallied in stretch after wide Preakness.
6- Cool Cola Man. No proof of stamina at this distance.
7- Amped. Pull the plug.
8- Harlem Rocker. One brilliant race, no reason for low price.
9-Mambo in Seattle. Gains in route stretches, only horse bred for distance.
10- Tres Borrachos. Has his moments, but not on dirt.
11- Pyro. Probably there at the end with Mambo.
12- Court Vision. Proven stamina in classy races.

Tiz Big and Cool Coal Man should lead and fade. Tale and Da Tara will join them on the backstretch. Mambo and Pyro will dominate the stretch run.

Picks: Mambo, Pyro, Macho, Court. Suggesting some exotic combos.

TWELVE: Burnished Copper.