MONMOUTH BIG BROWN DAY

1-Twisted Heart, Lexington Rae.
2- Peaceful Crowd, Hop and Skipaway, Red Planet, Bridled West.
3- Trix in the City will be the favorite, but dutching the field would be the better bet. For one thing these are 2 year old fillies, for another, the trainer record at first routes is poor. A good chance to win, yes, but not at the short price she'll command.
4- Chaos for sure, on or off the grass. Demand 5-1 minimum: Johns Song, Kings Challenge, Madbobcat, Lord Louis, Nicky the Cat, Lucky Leo.
5- Eight in the gate, so looking for odds of 7-1. All have mud breeding. Allofhertwist , Noisy Feet, Min D'oro look most obvious, but Cherokee Star, Sweet Elite are prime firsters, especially at a price.
6- Miami Hammer will probably be overbet, so need price on Cliffy's Future, Vicount, Stamp.
7- (5-1 target odds) Truthbetold, Net Present Value, Subtitles, Write Home, Fuencia.
8- Cuba ... legit chalk, 2-1 fair odds at track, distance. Key wheel.
9- Big Brown... has about a 70% chance of winning the race, which means the odds you need to make a smart bet are about 1/1. Wheel all undeneath in exacta if his odds stay at 1/1 or above.
If he sinks to bridge jumping territory, remember that there's a 30% chance he'll lose the race. Proudinsky, Silver Tree, Shakis, Drum Major and Kiss the Kid share that chance about equally. That would give me $10 bet for a $14 minimum payoff, possibly much more. And a 30% chance of collecting.
10- Chaos race. (8-1 target odds) Dicey DJ, Libor Lady, Kosmo's Buddy, Knockinelder, Bar Fly Blues, Cocktail Attire. Ready for Fortune, Browning.