Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Saturday, April 26, 2008

HAWTHORNE LONGSHOTS

WITH MINIMUM PRICE

1st: Open claimer
Must Trust (5) will be favored based on giant last speed figure. But that was a wet track. if the crowd goes nuts and drives the price down...
5/1 Le Jester (1) 7 wins at Hawthorne. {Did not meet minimum odds}

2nd: 2L claimer
4/1 Frosty Melody (7) Last two races have been promising in this class. {Placed 3.30/1}
5/1 Saygoodnightgracie (9) Big maiden win, terrible trainer angle for this race.

3rd: Maiden Claimer
A nice superfecta opportunity.
3/1 Beat the Freeze (1) Rail post, great trainer, first lasix, first drop.
4/1 Heap Wampum (2) Good post, trainer, toss the sloppy last.
Bottom of the ticket:
Star Vector (4) New trainer, jockey a negative. Best race was against staties on off track.
We're For Real (5) 0-for-17 and may never break maiden, but does hit the board.
{Missed super}

4th: Lady Hallie
3 to consider...
2/1 Big Lou (7) Great improvement since coming to this trainer.{Lost at 3-5}
4/1 Carts Italian Rose (5) Tends to place, belongs to dubious trainer. {Placed at 4-1}
7/1 Missy Biscuit (3) But only at the big price.

5th: The Milwaukee Avenue
Favorite Stonehouse (1) may well wire this race.
4/1 Batten (4) Might bounce, might improve. Pace bias plays to his strength. {show at $4.50}

6th: The Land of Lincoln.
3/1 Michael's Dreaming. Can't believe they'll let him go at ML of 5/1.
{They didn't.}

7th: The Peach of It.
Bias is late pace, rail trip.
Cooper State (4) and Stop a Train (5) will be co-favorites and run behind the pace.
10/1 Labar *(8) might close, but a bad trainer and outside post argue against him.
{Labar lost at 20-1}

8th: The Governor's Lady.
6/5 Pretty Jenny (5) looks like a dominant favorite.
{Lost at 4/5}

9th: The Chicagoland
Lots of worthy horses here. There will be six horses battling for the lead, so don't discount the possibility of a pace meltdown.
Probable Favorite: 3/1 Mighty Rule. 10-for-11 in the money at this distance.
4/1 Distorted Groom (2) 5-for-13 at Hawthorne. Owner-trained, and nicely.
5/1 Holy Thursday (7) Needs a pace meltdown, but has won twice in a row. Good trainer.
5/1 High Expectations (5) Good closer, in form, with top jockey and trainer.
6/1 Caruso (9) Early speed. Been working all spring for this comeback. {Lost at 8.30}
9/1 Sub Futz Jr. (6) Game, but always back there with traffic issues.
10/1 Lil Brian Too (8) In form, good trainer, but last win was muddy.
12/1 Infectious Spirit (10) Toss last, which was wrong distance/surface.
20/1 He's Hot Sauce (3) Wins at Hawthorne were muddy.

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