CHURCHILL LONGSHOTS

2nd 3/1 Tarva (3) Surface toss reveals 2 wins in a row on dirt.
Favorite Morghyn (1) Enjoys rail bias. But there's no speed to set up for her late rush.

3rd Favorite Immediatedeparture vulnerable. First dirt. Low percentage trainer. Awful last.
2/1 Proper Paul (4) has the jockey, the trainer and the formful last.
6/1 Embarrassed (5) is not as embarrassing as he seems. His only race on dirt was nice, and he's dropping today.
7/1 Naughty Fu Peg (6) His only trip was dreadful. Keneally's going to give him a shot here.
10/1 Valid Citizen (7) would need to clean up after a suicide duel.

4th: 5 furlongs, turf. Favorite Golden Hare (2) Listed at 7/5 and really should be 2/1. This is his distance but he's a stranger to the Twin Spires turf... So assuming the low price...
3/1 Around the Cape (5) With Papa Fuse and Cielo Song underneath.

5th: Favorite Lighthouse Jim should be no lower than 2/1 in the gate. If he's bet down...
3/1 Stanton (5) Definitely in form, can close on weakened speed.
6/1 Q Mac's Phone (2) needs a price, but he's capable if speed freaks out.

6th: Allowance South Atlantic will take all the action. Is actually a 1/1 shot. But that leaves 50% of the probability to the others, notably....
6/1 Natalicat (3) Trainer, jockey, form all great.
10/1 Insure (1) Comes off a good race with solid trainer, jockey.

7: 11 furlong maiden turf. Does that spell longshot?
Palm Princess (7) the likely 5/2 favorite. She finished strong in her longest race.
6/1 Cape Cod Bay (1) Bad post. Has nice race at CD, though.
9/1 Ultimate Event (2) Capable of finishing.
7/1 Miss Primetime (9) Lousy post, a stranger to the grass, trainer a plus

8: Maiden Claimer. Painted Forest (5) at anything over odds-on.

9: Turf $100,000 optional claimer
2/1 Silver Whistle (1)
2/1 Fire Rock Base (2) Let the tote be your guide, take the best price, wrap up an exacta box.

10: Derby Trial Favorite Kodiak Cowboy (4) listed at 5/2. But there's lots of competition here...
Eaton's Gift (1) Only bad race was his first, when Kodiak Cowboy whupped him.
10/1 Fujita (3) Rough trip, nice allowance win.
5/1 Majestic Warrior (5) 3 lousy races in a row, a closer, really, but at this distance, maybe.
8/1 Macho Again (6) Weaker wins than this, but does like Churchill.
8/1 Iron Works Pike (8) Needs a good trip, but might happen.
5/1 Turf War. (9) One freak win was DH with... Zhumor. Listed at 10/1 ML.
10/1 Zulu Magic (10) Asmussen pony is 2/2.

11: Level One claimer. Favorite I'm a Daddy's Girl (5) 3/1 and that's all she's worth, if that.
4/1 Delucie (9) Has been a fader, but Mott-Robbie working on that.
5/1 Quite a Sight. (8) Form, trainer, but first dirt.
4/1 Lead Time (10) Outrageous trainer angle when going plastic-to-dirt.
12/1 Heavenly Surprise. (3) Rounding into form, does okay at CD.