Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Sunday, May 04, 2008

LEMMINGS

Canterbury Park, Kentucky Derby day.

The favorite is listed at 3-2. He's a strong favorite and that seems about the right price.
As the horses reach the gate, somebody plunges. In a blink, the odds go down to 1-2.
The favorite now has $10,000 bet on him to win.
But a horse gets loose. The start is delayed. What happens on the tote?
Bettors add another $2000, that's 20% more, on a horse they know is going to go off at impossible odds.
The loose horse is chased down, the racers go back into the gate, the race goes off, and a 25-1 shot beats that 1-2 horse soundly. The 25-1 shot was a logical longshot, too. It was listed 2nd by Brisnet, and that is usually a 5-1 shot or so.
Even after the odds had dropped dramatically, even knowing that the horses had been loaded twice, the bettors still piled onto the 1-2 shot and ignored the others. To make it worse, there was a jockey change at post time, another indicator of chaos. No matter. The bettors added 20% to an already irrational pool.


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