GULFSTREAM , FLA DERBY DAY

1: 1x sprint
6- Fujita, ML fave. Yes, that was a nice win at spd87 in first outing. However...
3- Philharmonic has won maiden, then beaten winners at a much higher level.
5- Unlimited Dreams has arguably a better maiden win than Fujita.
7- Alice's Halo has proven tough in a variety of races against winners.
So if Fujita is the tote fave, I'd definitely play against.

2: Mdn.
4-Smart surprise. Or so they say. But looks like a classic sucker horse, and at 0/7 I want 8/1.
2- Miss Primetime. Keeps improving and wants to win. 8/1? Where's the window?

3: Turf claimer, 8.5 furlongs
2-Edge of a Shadow. Loves to hit the board and hates to win. Look for a longshot.

4: Maiden, lotsa firsters.
Pass.

5: Shirley Jones G2
2: Sugar Swirl. Lynch takes over a Frankel horse and improves her. She ran that last G3 well enough to win a G1, so she's about 1/1 in this race.

6: Mile Allowance
1: Chelokee. Slips into these conditions, and way too good for the rest except for maybe...
5: Carrots Only. Who has the speed, but not quite the class of Chelokee.

7: Palm Beach G3, 9 furlong turf.
8: Sporting Art, 3/1 ML fave. Stuck in bad post, this time and last. Just missed last time and probably will make the transition from Euro-grass. Not yet proven at this class, though. Lack of true G3 competition may make him a default winner.
4: Moral Compass. Tends to clunk along and hit the board.
11: Run Sully Run. Nice allowance wins. Stuck way outside.
3: Titan of Industry. Squishy-turf maiden win and not much since.
9: Dynamalt. Placed on squishy turf past pace-dead horses. Still needs a maiden win.
6: Wise Answer. Lousy turf trainer. Awful last G3 on turf. Awesome dirt wins. Is this a case of trainer psychosis? Put this frickin animal back on the dirt, will ye?

8: 2x 7 furlong. Late speed bias.
3: Kapazunder. Son of Giant's Causeway, 5 years old, brought along slowly by super trainer. Second shot at this race, which he lost by a neck after traffic jam. All lights are green now. Worth 3/2 on the board.
10: Steelix. Bad post. Almost sure to hit the board. Consistently has traffic trouble, and would have won a few more with a clear lane.
4: Port Royal. Recent win was pace-aided and very slow. Has never seen hot pace.
2: Yes Master. Trainer has screwed up a magnificent closer.

9: Bonnie Ms.

Looking for 4-1 since there are 4 true contenders. Bias toward rail speed.

6-Robbie's Gal 119@98. She's 1/7 after her maiden win. Tires at shorter distances than this.

Robbie's Gal will lead and fade. At that point, it's whoever's in striking position among:

2- Backseat Rhythm. 120@98 Closer wtih two impressive G1 races. Class of the race.
3- She's All Eltish. 114@95. 3 good races since maiden, but unproven at better class.
4- Halo Hollie. 114@95 Won her last two and rapidly improving.
7- Highest Class 118@98 She's 1/3 since her maiden. Strong in the stretch.

10: FLORIDA DERBY
8 horses will be battling up front. This will be a bruiser and no time to take chalky odds... The best horses are all in bad outside posts. Minimum bet: 5-1.

Big Brown and BB Frank will probably take the lead. BB, overmatched, will drop back. Smooth Air and Elysium Fields will make the late moves.

2- Smooth Air 117@99 Big win was G2 in slop, so threat if wet. Post helps. Tough in stretch. This could be his day at 12-1. This horse is a bet at anything over 6-1.

8- Elysium Fields 123@99 Rapidly improving and nearly won G2. Bad post. Choice at decent odds.

9- Hey Byrn 119@101 Kicks ass in the lane, can handle off track. Big allowance wins, but hurt by outside post.

10-Majestic Warrior 119@102 Listed at 15-1, an overlay despite the bad post. Showed little in his last but he could wake up for the big money. It'll be crowded, though, and if he's blocked, he doesn't have the lungs for the late move.

12-Big Brown 114@102 ML favorite, ran an astonishing race last time for a huge improvement over his maiden effort. He's 2/2 now and COULD be a monster, but the outside post hurts. He certainly is not worth a bet at the listed 3/1.


11:Turf 2x
1 True Dancer 117@ 87 Dutrow's the newt. 2-1 career odds, 11 wins and won last.
8 Dynatonia 119@103 Best figs over last 3 races, would be bargain at 6-1 ML.
3 Bullara 119@102 A declining horse, but Pletcher's putting JR on board...

12: Forever Whirl, biased toward speed on the rail.
2 Electrify 119@101, has the winning post, proven distance. Hard to see the real challenge from:
7 Better Than Bonds 120@99 Only 1/5 distance, declining, likes to place.
5 Believeinmenow This is a long race to ask him to win after 7 months away.
6 Imawildandcrazyguy. No speed, and most likely to hit the board if anything.
8 Too Many Toyz. Stuck in a bad post, after a long layoff, unproven trainer.
9 Notice Me Now. A real threat only if the track is wet.