KENTUCKY DERBY 2015

The favorites, as usual, are very bad bets.
In a pari-mutuel system, the favorite horses get lots of attention, and as a result are bet down to unfavorable odds. The more hype the race gets, the more this is true, and no race gets more hype than the Kentucky Derby.
Yes, American Pharaoh and Dortmund are the best horses and are the most likely winners. But if you bet these kinds of horses over time, you are guaranteed to lose.
We've found two under-bet horses, which is the name of the game. Picking winners is easy. Finding good bets is hard. 
We'll play Upstart and El Kabeir to win and in an exacta box.
We'll play them underneath American Pharaoah and Dortmund in exactas and trifectas.
We'll probably lose. This is only one race. But making good bets does pay off over time.

#18 American Pharaoh 5/2

• Probably more like 8/1

#8 Dortmund 3/1

• Not quite as horrible a bet: 9/2

#2 Carpe Diem 8/1

• He's 11/1 in our line.

#3 Materiality 12/1

• We're close: 14/1

#10 Firing Line 12/1

• We've got him at 14/1

#15 Frosted 15/1

• A slight bargain. We rate him 14/1

#19 Upstart 15/1

• A good bet: 8/1. Upstart has run only one mediocre race in 7 tries. The outside post is a concern, but the odds more than compensate for that risk. He has the off-the-pace running style that Derby horses need, and his speed and pace figure are among the best. He has a 12% chance of winning the Derby.

#7 El Kabeir 30/1

• Our best bet: 15/1 Remember, though, that this means he's got only a 6% chance of winning. If he does, though, you are going to cash, cash, cash. Okay, he fizzled in the Wood... but so did Secretariat. He ain't the best horse, but with a lucky trip and pace, El Kabeir could win.
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THE OTHER RACES ON DERBY DAY:
Here we've listed every horse under 10/1 in our fair odds line. Pick players, especially, might find this helpful.

RACE ONE:  Top choices 8-1-5
A  very tough race. The best horse, #8 is 5/1 and a longshot winner is very likely. Only the #10 would be a surprise here.

RACE TWO: Top choices 4-1A-3-5
The #4 is bettable at 4/1.

RACE THREE: Top choices 9-2-8-4-3

The #2 is worth watching. Seek 8/1
#4 wins 4/1.

RACE FOUR: Top choices 3-6-4-7-11

All the other horses are awful, which suggests a super here.

RACE FIVE: Top choices 2-6-4-5
The #2 would be fair at 2/1.

#6 wins at  6/5.

RACE SIX: Top choices 4-8-9
Demand 5/2 on the #4.

RACE SEVEN: Top choices 8-3-6-1-7-4
Absolutely wide open longshot race.
#3 wins at 5/2

RACE EIGHT: Top choices 8-5-4
The top three horses have, collectively a 65% chance to win.

RACE NINE: Top choices: 2-4

One of the few races where pick players can go shallow.
#4 wins @ 5/2

RACE TEN: Top choices: 7-5-9

You'd need 7/2 on that favored #8

#5 wins @ 7/2
With DQ, hit 5-7-9 for exacta, tri wins