Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Saturday, July 26, 2014

MONMOUTH JULY 27, HASKELL DAY

MONMOUTH,  HASKELL DAY


  • "A" win bets $38
  • Return: $36.60 (96%)
  • Pick-3s and Pick-4s: $135 bet
  • Return: $165 (122%)




RACE ONE
Guessing game. Pass.

RACE TWO
Pick-3: 4/ 3,7/ 8,7,9,4,2 ($5)
Pick-4: 4/ 3,7/ 8,7,9,4,2 / 6 ($5) 
#4 Your Move (A) She’ll have to survive a speed duel with …
#5 Spanish Concert (B)
#3 Stonetastic (C) might benefit from the speed duel.

RACE THREE
Pick-3 3,7/ 2,4,9,7/ 6,1 ($8)
#3 Gadget Man, (A) a late mover $7.40
#7 Caylee’s Song, (A) ditto
#1 (B)

RACE FOUR
Pick-3: 8,7 / 6/ 6,8,4 ($3)
#8 Picozza (A) slight advantage in an evenly-matched field.
Demand a good price when playing this free-for-all.
#7 Favorite Ketch (B) hard to shake at the wire.
#9 Mythical Man (B) likely to lead and fade.
#4 One Golden Road (B) 3 non-turf races lately, may be underbet.
#2 Carson Bandit (B) tires in the late stretch.
#1 filler for third and fourth spot


RACE FIVE
Pick-3: 6/ 6,8,4/ 4,8,5 ($4.50)
Pick-5:  6/ 6,8,4/ 4,8,5/ 10,5,9/ 9 ($13.50)
#6 Jax Maxx (A) a worthy key or single
#1-1A both worthy underneath
#2 at 8/1, filler-longshot.
#3 his second race following rehab.
#5 only recent dirt race a near-win at 8/1
#8 can boost the bottom of a ticket.

RACE SIX
Pick 3: 6,8,4/ 4,8,5/ 10,5,9 ($13.50)
Pick 4: 6,8,4/ 4,8,5/ 10,5,9/ 9 ($13.50)
#6 Best Actor (A)
#8 SS Skittles (B)
#4 an 8/1 longshot with 11 win-place finishes.
#1 crazy 30/1 longshot/filler, has hidden turf win/place.

RACE SEVEN
Pick 3: 5,8/ 10,5,9/ 9,2,6,10 ($12)
#5 Zucchini Flower (A) the closer
#8 Natalie Victoria (A) the speed
#4 (B)
#6 crazy longshot/filler at 30/1. Finishes in the money more than half the time.

RACE EIGHT
Pick 3: 10/ 9,10, 2,6 /2,5,9 ($6)
Will be a savage 6-horse pace battle, with the likely winners stalking.
#10 Exploring (A) Can’t believe the 12/1 morning line will hold. This horse might be 2/1.
#9 Sensational Slam (B)
#5 Ribo Bobo (B)

RACE NINE
Pick 3: 9,10, 2,6 /2,5,9 /8,2 ($12) Pick-3: $165
Pick 4:  9,2,6,10 /2,5,9 /8 /7,8,9 ($18.)
#9 Watsdachances (A) Needs that late rush, will be 4th in the stretch.
#10 Irish Mission (A) Could take this race over early and close 'em off.
#2 Starstruck (B)
#6 Nashly’s Vow (B) Will try to wire 'em.
#3 wild longshot/filler at 15/1
#1 ditto, and has a nice late move.


RACE TEN
Pick 3: 2,5,9/ 8,2 /7,8,9 ($9)
Maybe the most competitive on the card, with 3 “A” horses.
Mix and match or play the best price.
PREDICTED SCENARIO:
Pants on Fire controls the tempo. Valid makes a late rush to miss by a nose. Micromanage can't make up the ground after laying back early.
#2 Pants on Fire (A)
#5 Micromanage (A)
#9 Valid (A) $10.80
#3 Long River, (B) to fill the super.

RACE ELEVEN
Pick 3: 8,/ 7,8,9/ 2,8,1,10 ($6)
#8 Guys Reward (A) $11.20
#2 (B)
#9 (C)
#10 Joe Tess. (?) Do not ignore. Might be much the best at 10/1.  Forced off the turf last time and a bad, sloppy trip besides. If the June 15 race is an indication, this guy might laugh all the way to the finish line.
#4 longshot, filler and 9/2 is way too cheap.


RACE TWELVE the HASKELL
Pick 3: 7,8,9/ 2,8,1,10 /6 ($6)
PREDICTED SCENARIO:
Wildcat Red leads through the first turn.
Untapable, just outside him, pulls even at second turn.
Untapable pulls away to win by 1 or 2 lengths.
Social Inclusion clunks up for third, Medal Count or Bayern fills the super.

#7 Untapable (A) talk of the town, price will be crazy.
#8 Wildcat Red (B) the main threat and may be Untapable’s equal with perfect trip.
#9 Medal Count (B) would need the pace to fold.
#6 Social Inclusion (C) could force pace, then drop out. Otherwise, little impact.
#3 Albano (C) Might contend ... if Rosie falls off.
#2 Bayern (C) 5/2 morning line is way too low. Handicappers should be skeptical of that last race, which was only 1-turn. Try 8/1.

RACE THIRTEEN
#2 Dark and Dusty (A) toss that June disaster.
#8 Frogman Mel (A) new trainer and not much info.
#1   (B)
#10 (B)
#11 Longshot/filler
#14 Longshot/filler
#5 Could be the surprise of the day at 30/1

RACE FOURTEEN
#6 Chublicious (A) Could be the beginning of a nice career
#2 (B) $7.20
#3 (C)


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