CALIFORNIA CHROME: GOOD LUCK, BUT NO BET

Horse players are now reaching the heights of irrational exuberance. California Chrome has a date with history Saturday, but maybe not in the winner's circle.

I would love to see a Triple Crown winner. But...

While California Chrome is the best horse in the Belmont, the most likely result of the race is that he loses.

I'm using a mathematical method that has been quite accurate at predicting win percentages and odds. It has California Chrome at 3/2 fair odds.

You know he's going off at odds-on. But his win probability is nowhere near what the board might suggest. He has a win chance of 40%.

My solution for this dilemma, heart vs. head, is to bet place. If CC wins, I can celebrate. But I'm not forced to make a bad bet on him to win at terrible odds.

Here are the best horses and the fair odds, as I see 'em.

California Chrome: 3/2
Social Inclusion: 10/1
Samraat: 10/1 (19/1 actual, bet place)
Wicked Strong: 11/1 (5/1 actual)
Ride on Curlin: 12/1 (7/1 actual)
Commanding Curve: 12/1 (8/1 actual)
Tonalist: 12/1 (12/1 actual, bet place)

Chrome's six best challengers have, among them,  a 50% chance to win the Belmont. This is the slightly more probable outcome, that one of those six challengers prevails. I hope not.  I'll take a shot at whichever of those challengers offers the best odds, to place only. 

Good luck, California Chrome. You're a fine horse, and a lousy bet.