We bet 15 horses at fair odds. We had 4 winners. On a $2 basis, we bet $30. The payoffs: $2.80, $11.40, $55.40, $6.40. That's a $76 payoff, more than doubling our money.
Reminder: our odds aren't a morning line but a fair odds line. Horses should not be bet unless they carry the minimum odds specified.
CD ONE
The Loose Horse has a radical disagreement with the morning line here.
Denali Holy Bull looks to have a significant advantage over the field, and we would love to have him at the morning line of 6/5. It's not that he's so great. It's that the others are so lame.
Easy win by #6 at exactly fair odds.
| # | PP | HORSE | JOCKEY | TRAINER | CLAIM $ | EQUIP. | MED. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fast and Frugal Fair odds 17/1 | A. Castanon 124 Lbs | L. Jurado | $8,000 | L | |
| 2 | 2 | Numen Lumen Fair odds 21/1 | N. Arroyo, Jr. 122 Lbs | J. Castanon | $8,000 | L | |
| 3 | 3 | El Diablo Fair odds 9/1 | J. Castanon 122 Lbs | R. Kinmon | $8,000 | L | |
| 4 | 4 | Maxopico Fair odds 75/1 | R. Morales 122 Lbs | C. Larue | $8,000 | L | |
| 5 | 5 | Ynot Gray Boy Fair odds: 75//1 | D. Davis 115 Lbs | K. Chapman | $8,000 | L | |
| 6 | 6 | Denali Holy Bull Fair odds: 2/5 | M. Mena 122 Lbs | L. Wiggins | $8,000 | L |
CD TWO
Radical disagreements on the #2 and #3, both listed at 5/2 by the Morning Line Gods.
The romance for the #2 is based on a huge lifetime-best fig posted on a sloppy track. Come on...
The #3 can only be evaluated on recent AW races, so who knows? Certainly that's not deserving of a 5/2 ML.
Neither hit the board. Our 6/1 Dowooper scored at 26-1.
The romance for the #2 is based on a huge lifetime-best fig posted on a sloppy track. Come on...
The #3 can only be evaluated on recent AW races, so who knows? Certainly that's not deserving of a 5/2 ML.
Neither hit the board. Our 6/1 Dowooper scored at 26-1.
| # | PP | HORSE | JOCKEY | TRAINER | CLAIM $ | EQUIP. | MED. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Norma's Dream 9/2 | V. Lebron 118 Lbs | J. Mattingly | $10,000 | ||
| 2 | 2 | All That Glimmers 17/1 | J. Castanon 118 Lbs | M. Lauer | $10,000 | L | |
| 3 | 3 | Sister Genevra 17/1 | C. Lanerie 118 Lbs | T. Richardson | $10,000 | L | |
| 4 | 4 | Dowooper 6/1 | R. Vazquez 118 Lbs | L. Vasquez | $10,000 | L | |
| 5 | 5 | Seamstress 5/1 | A. Battula 111 Lbs | L. Jurado | $10,000 | L | |
| 6 | 6 | Quite Explosive 2/1 | M. Mena 118 Lbs | R. Werner | $10,000 | L | |
| 7 | 7 | Lovely Jane 12/1 | D. Davis 111 Lbs | G. Bush | $10,000 | L |
CD THREE
Three in here with a real shot... #2 won his maiden at Churchill and has run a lot of Poly tossers since. #5 hasn't run on real dirt in so long it just might shock him into victory. #4 just kicked ass in Louisville and is looking for more. Does this suggest a trifecta to you?
#4 won without our backing at too-small odds. The tri didn't work.
We found no playable horses.
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CD FOUR Big doubts about the #1 open up prospects for the other horses. Yeah, yeah, I know, Bo-rail on the rail. Radical drop second time off a layoff. But there's also the possibilty that the horse, at 9 years old, has finally decided to retire, but forgot to tell his owners. So 5/2? Nah. Our line of 11/1 predicts that he might, might, finish somewhere in the super. We like #8 Pure Rush, winner of 3 straight, cheap, yes, but improving each time. Wrong. #1 won at 3-1.
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CD FIVE
We love Rosie and hope she wins the 2014 Ky Derby. But sometimes the crowd loves her too much. It's expecting too much to say the #1 is 6/1 after having won her maiden on her fifth try, and is stretching way out. No shot, we say. In other words, 55/1.
This is a classic chaos race, full field on the turf, with many worthy contenders. The #2 and #3 are the strongest, but it's always worth a scan of any horse listed at 12/1 or below. Overlays! We love 'em.
#1 ran like a hopeless longshot, as predicted. Oscar Party won at 9/2, exactly our fair odds. We had to bet 3 overlays to get him.
This is a classic chaos race, full field on the turf, with many worthy contenders. The #2 and #3 are the strongest, but it's always worth a scan of any horse listed at 12/1 or below. Overlays! We love 'em.
#1 ran like a hopeless longshot, as predicted. Oscar Party won at 9/2, exactly our fair odds. We had to bet 3 overlays to get him.
| # | PP | HORSE | JOCKEY | TRAINER | CLAIM $ | EQUIP. | MED. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Anna Pavlova 55/1 | R. Napravnik 116 Lbs | J. Jones | L | ||
| 2 | 2 | Oscar Party 9/2 | N. Arroyo, Jr. 116 Lbs | W. Catalano | L | ||
| 3 | 3 | Ocean Bertie 7/2 | S. Bridgmohan 123 Lbs | S. Margolis | L | ||
| 4 | 4 | Beverage Queen 16/1 | A. Garcia 118 Lbs | K. McPeek | L | ||
| 5 | 5 | Gleaning 70/1 | J. Castanon 123 Lbs | C. LoPresti | L | ||
| 6 | 6 | By Golly Molly 18/1 | C. Lanerie 116 Lbs | E. Kenneally | L | ||
| 7 | 7 | Bargain Blitz 14/1 | L. Goncalves 123 Lbs | W. Mott | L | ||
| 8 | 8 | Neith 21/1 | R. Albarado 116 Lbs | D. Lukas | L | ||
| 9 | 9 | Archetype 30/1 | M. Mena 123 Lbs | G. Arnold, II | L | ||
| 10 | 10 | Pappascat 6/1 | J. Court 116 Lbs | G. Simms | L | ||
| 11 | 11 | Assets of War 11/1 | B. Hernandez, Jr. 116 Lbs | N. Howard | L | ||
| 12 | 12 | Dynarama 11/1 | C. Borel 123 Lbs | H. Pitts | L | ||
| 13 | MTO | Liberated ML: 4-1 | J. Court 116 Lbs | V. Oliver | L | ||
| 14 | AE | I'm Your Luv ML: 6-1 | V. Lebron 123 Lbs | K. McPeek | Blk-Off | L | |
| 15 | AE | Faerie Queene ML: 10-1 | C. Lanerie 116 Lbs | R. Hiles | L | ||
| 16 | AE | Fog Happens ML: 15-1 | C. Borel 123 Lbs | H. Williams | L | ||
| 17 | AE | With Excellence ML: 15-1 | S. Bridgmohan 123 Lbs | P. Thomas, Jr. |
CD SEVEN
#5 is better than the 5/2 morning line. The key in this race is the five hopeless horses listed at 49/1. Sure, they might clog up the lane, but otherwise they point to a 5-horse race. Our #5 hates to lose, winning 12 times in 19 gate appearances.
#5 went off at exactly our fair odds, got a bad start and limped home in last. #10 Blingboy shocked everybody but his new trainer at 66/1. Technically, he was an overlay, but we don't bet in that stratosphere.
| # | PP | HORSE | JOCKEY | TRAINER | CLAIM $ | EQUIP. | MED. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gruenewald 49/1 | C. Lanerie 118 Lbs | R. Hiles | $5,000 | L | |
| 2 | 2 | Mad Aftershock 49/1 | J. Court 120 Lbs | D. Bright | $5,000 | L | |
| 3 | 3 | Don'tgetmadgeteven 15/1 | N. Arroyo, Jr. 118 Lbs | B. Sturgeon | $5,000 | L | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Adam 49/1 | V. Lebron 120 Lbs | A. Farrior | $5,000 | L | |
| 5 | 5 | Western Tease 6/5 | M. Franklin 123 Lbs | D. Kobiskie | $5,000 | L | |
| 6 | 6 | Nickel Pickle 49/1 | A. Castanon 118 Lbs | J. Castanon | $5,000 | L | |
| 7 | 7 | Finding Paradise 9/2 | R. Albarado 118 Lbs | W. Bindner, Jr. | $5,000 | L | |
| 8 | 8 | Ghost Chapel 6/1 | D. Davis 113 Lbs | T. McCauley | $5,000 | L | |
| 9 | 9 | High Mystery 5/1 | J. Castanon 118 Lbs | J. Frost | $5,000 | L | |
| 10 | 10 | Blingboy 49/1 | O. Rossi 118 Lbs | W. Pfister | $5,000 | L |
CD EIGHT
Turf chaos. We wouldn't go a penny below 7/2 on the likely favorite, #2. Yes, he's a champ, and has Calvin, but there are plenty of others who could swoop in late at a price.
The fave was #9 at an unbettable 2/1. #5 won at 16-1, fair odds, according to us, although we didn't play him, because we don't bet horses we believe to be more than 10/1 fair odds.
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CD TEN
It might look like a contentious race, but really, most of those in the gate have little chance. The #4 and #6 have, between them, about a 70% chance to win the race. But the #2 and #5 should be bet if they rise much above fair odds.
#4 and #6 both playable at 2-1, and their exacta payoff was a little over 4/1. #2 and #5 were short priced and not bet-worthy.
#4 and #6 both playable at 2-1, and their exacta payoff was a little over 4/1. #2 and #5 were short priced and not bet-worthy.
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