As happens when you demand fair odds, you take a good number of beats by good horses that the crowd has bet down to crazy levels. It takes patience, but if you persist in making good bets, at fair odds, you will often be rewarded.
That's what happened today.
With only a couple of exceptions, the early card beat us again and again with low-odds horses. But we persisted in our strategy of betting the best horse that carries fair odds. For the first eight races, we either lost or passed, or made a barely-defensible win play.
Then in race 11, the G2 Dixie, we passed on the first two horses because of low odds. We settled on the #10 Skyring, our third choice, whom we valued at 7/1 and who went off at 24/1.
That win alone made our day. But there was more to come.
In the Preakness, we insisted that Orb was crazy overbet. Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday both carried more than fair odds. If you bet both to win-place, you made very, very nice money. If you took our suggestion to put them in a box with Orb, you made $150 for $6.
The original post is below, with results in red:
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Let's get the Preakness done first.
The fair odds system that has proven accurate at the Loose Horse is built to ignore sloppy races. So we're ignoring the results of the Kentucky Derby, with its wacky pace and sloppy surface.
If you don't agree and want to count the Derby, then Orb is a 3/2 favorite.
If you toss the Derby, as I believe you should, Orb is a 5/2 favorite.
Either way he is a very bad bet at the morning line of 1/1.
Yes, he is still the most likely winner. But at best he's got a 40% chance. His backers may cash a ticket on him. But if they bet low-price horses in races that are this competitive, they will lose, lose, lose in the long run. I guarantee that. I can prove it.
The Preakness is a borderline chaos race, and backers of the favorite at low odds in such races earn a return of about 78 cents on the dollar. That is the same return you would make betting at blind random. Your grandma who bets blanket colors or cute horse names, she'll earn that same 78-cent return over time.
So bet Orb if you must. He's got a 60% chance to lose.
Personally, I think it would be great if Orb won and he took Shug to the Triple Crown. That would be fabulous. But I'm not going to bet that way.
Okay, Fair Odds for the Preakness. About 80% of the win chance belongs to these four in bold:
#9 Itsmyluckyday (R48) 3/1 Place at 8/1
#1 Orb (R46) 5/2
#6 Oxbow (R46) 5/1 Win @15/1.
#4 Departing (R45) 7/1
#2 Goldencents (R44) 11/1
#5 Mylute (R43) 12/1
#7 Will Take Charge (R42) xx
#8 Governor Charlie (R42) xx
#3 Titletown Five (R39) xx
The R ratings encompass distance, surface, class and speed. Horses that are more than 3 points shy of the leader will, over time, lose their backers a great deal of money. The odds don't always match the R ratings, because there is a bit of built-in hedging for races over surfaces that are dissimilar to the conditions of the current race. So Orb gets some credit for an awesome Derby run, but not full credit.
The morning line on #9 is 10/1, and I doubt you'll get anything quite that high, but anyone looking for overlays must at least consider him and #6, who is listed at an absurd 15/1.
If you still believe in Orb and want to pump the price, one strategy might be an exacta box 1/6/9. For $6 you get the three best horses.
Good luck!
$6 box we suggested paid $150.
Okay now to the undercard:
Probably half the winners today will be longshots over 5/1. This card is absolutely stuffed with chaos races.
PIM One:
#6 Hakama 6/1
... Just missed in a tough race.
#8 Wild Louis 4/1
... More likely "underneath."
#9 Bake Shop 5/2
... Peaking, and has a win over the track.
The ML favorite is the #1, but he hasn't been tested at this distance.
The huge speed fig he posted on a sloppy track can't be taken seriously.
But #1 beat us at 8/5.
PIM Two
#9 Hello Lover 3/2 Unplayable, win at 3/5
... the only worthy chalk on the entire card.
Although there are some pretty good horses in the field, #9 has a distinct class advantage.
PIM Three
Chaos on the turf. Any horse under 6/1 is a bad bet. The most proven winner here is #12.
#4 Thames Trader 8/1
... He's 2-for-3 on grass.
#6 Inflamed Spirit 8/1
... Only turf win was downhill at Santa Anita.
#8 Brooklyn Cowboy 8/1
... First grass.
#12 Hesagoldmine 8/1
... Five sharp turf sprints, and ML of 15/1 !
#13 Lil Mr. B 10/1
.... One OK grass run, bad turf jockey
Lost to #7 at 5/2
PIM Five
More turf chaos. Again, minimum 6/1
#5 Moral High Ground (R36) 6/1
... Four-for-eleven on the grass.
#14 Marataya's Tune (R36) 6/1
... trainer has figured this horse out. Not sure about jock.
#3 Listen Boy (R35) 8/1
... doesn't have the foundation, will need luck.
#7 Joy (R34) 10/1 won but too low to bet at 4/1.
... beat maidens and failed since.
#10 Archette (R34) 10/1
... new to Lake barn, that may help.
#11 Waquoit's Dance (R34) 10/1
... has won tough claimers, good trainer angle.
#6 Monster Sleeping (R33) 15/1
... won last for new trainer, watch out.
PIM Six
Six furlongs of pure chaos. Minimum bet 5/1
#7 City of Weston (R42) 5/1
... off a spectacular winter-spring campaign
#3 Bobcat Jim (R41) 6/1
... developing nicely and could advance.
#6 Brave Dave (R40) 8/1
... big effort in layoff return, could regress.
#8 Clawback (R40) 8/1
... hasn't won a really tough race.
#9 Undrafted (R40) 8/1
... toss that over-ambitious trip to Lexington.
#2 Zee Bros (R40) 8/1
... 2/1 ML? Don't be ridiculous. But he beat us at 5/2
PIM Seven
Lots of first-grassers. Unless you have some super-secret knowledge, I wouldn't put a lot of cash into this one.
#10 Redwood Kitten (R40) 3/1 Barely playable win at 2/1
... not only the best horse, but Rosario-Ward are dynamite.
#8 Special Skills (R39) 6/1
... unknown jockey. Hmmm.
#4 Heat Press (R37) 9/1
... best of the first-timers.
PIM Eight Allaire Dupont G3
A "normal" race where chalk is playable. No bets over 5/1.
#7 Brushed by a Star (R47) 3/1
... behind-the-pace horse, win-place bet.
#3 Moon Philly (R46) 4/1
... 7 hot races, a vacation and a bullet.
#5 Sea Island (R45) 5/1
... another horse who lags the pace and places a lot.
#6 Summer Applause (R45) 5/1
... apparently the connections have caused tote fever. The ML of 9/5 is ludicrous. Beat us at 3/2.
PIM Nine Gallorette G3
Moderate chaos race, minimum bet 7/2
#4 Samitar (R45) 7/2
... beat up tough guys in Ireland, at Belmont.
#1 Hard Not to Like (42) 8/1
... nicely developed by Matz. Best of the rest.
#3 Pianist (42) 8/1 Win at a barely playable 6/1.
... but not proven at this level.
#5 Old Tune 8/1
... wins in Brazil, at Tampa, but...
#9 Silver Screamer 8/1
... unproven at this level, needs great trip.
PIM Ten Maryland Sprint
Chaos again. 5/1 minimum. Plenty of horses in here have strong ability but have, for a variety of reasons, been run in the wrong races lately. Nobody is dominant, so nobody deserves low odds. It'll be a scramble, probably with three lead changes.
#5 Immortal Eyes (R46) 5/1
... toss the CT dashes and see a powerful 6F runner.
#6 Poseidon's Warrior (R45) 6/1
... toss the slop, the hopeless BC, to see real horse.
#7 Candyman (R45) 6/1
... toss that last 2 to brilliant GP run.
#2 Broad Rule (R44) 8/1
... trainer too ambitious, but he could luck out a win.
#3 Manito (R44) 8/1
... 4 straight wins, awesome trainer and jockey.
Beat by #10 at 2/1.
PIM Eleven Dixie G2
Today's most challenging and chaotic race, much more so than the Preakness. Minimum bet should be 7/1. It's hard to separate the top three, all of whom have won very similar G3-type races.
#9 Swift Warrior (R44) 7/1 (raced at 5/1)
... my god, Rosie is winning 28% of turf races#2 Optimizer (R44) 7/1 (raced at 3/1)
... had excuses of bad start, dirt in last two.
#10 Skyring (R44) 7/1 Win as triple overlay, 24/1
... dirt failures obscure turf ability.
#1 Wilcox Inn (R43) 9/1
... brilliant at 10/1 in G2.
#5 Doubles Partner (R43) 9/1
... proven at this level, and with Todd, Julien.
#7 Howe Great (R42) 12/1
... a notch or two below the best, but lucky trip wins.
The #6 and #11 seem highly unlikely to win, but anybody else winning this race would be no surprise at all. The 7/2 morning line on Optimizer is much too low, and it's not even certain he's the best horse.
PIM Thirteen
Everybody's conceding this one to:
#8 Code West, morning line of 4/5, and unplayable from our point of view. Win at 1/5
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