Oaklawn April 13

OP Two
Chaos!
A bet on trainer Mac Robertson, who owns and sends #12 Rhodsey, has shown a profit over the last 500 races. Rhodesy is also rated 2nd by Brisnet, which implies proper odds of 4/1.
The class horse is #9 Truman's Commander, but the morning line is much too low at 5/2.
#1 10/1 7.50
#2 13/1
#3 10/1 (20/1 ML) Capable and in form.
#6 10/1
#8 9/1 (new trainer!)
#9 6/1
#12 10/1 (Brisnet's #2)

OP Four.
Asmussen has found an incredibly soft spot for the return of #5 Nehro.
This horse has been competitive at the highest level and it's only a fluke that he's eligible for this race. He goes against much inferior company. I'd be shocked at any price over 3/5. For pick players, if there's a single on the card, this is it.
#5 Nehro (A) 3/5
A 50-cent pick 3 is offered here, and the probabilities of our choices are:
70% x 90% x 80% = 50% chance of cashing.
The ticket would cost $24.

OP Five.
Chaos again. The likely favorite is fresh maiden winner #7 Alli Leigh (ML 3/1). #8 Sheza Roman Ruler might offer more value. There's a 90% chance of the winner being in the list below. Minimum odds in this kind of race: 4/1.
#2 7/1
#3 9/1
#6 9/1
#7 4/1 2.80
#8 5/1 (Brisnet's #1)
#9 7/1

OP Six
More chaos.
#11 Por Que is the class horse. #9 is almost as classy, but with a morning line of 15/1. The problem is, nobody here is gobs better than the field. Trip and pace will decide the winner. Plunge away!
The following cover an 80% win chance.
#2 14/1
#3 10/1
#4 14/1 (new trainer)
#6 14/1
#7 14/1
#8 14/1
#9 6/1 (new trainer) $6.90
#11 5/1

OP Seven
Chaos again. #1 Malibu High and #6 Looking Cool are the top class, and of equal ability. Bets of at least 5/1 offer the most promise here and in any chaos race.
#1 5/1
#2 8/1 (Brisnet's #2)
#3 8/1
#6 5/1
#7 8/1
#8 12/1
#10 12/1

OP Eight: The Oaklawn.
We get to see Fort Larned again, after he ran away from the field riderless in his last race. Chances are, he'll destroy this bunch.
#9 Fort Larned 2/5.
El-cheapo pick-3 sequence:
70% x 60% x 95% = 40% win chance
Ticket cost: $4 and might pay nice if the Ark Derby goes longshot.

OP Nine: The Count Fleet.
Figures to be another easy race. #3 Justin Phillip is clearly the best, but if he's having a bad hair day, #2 Apprehender is his best rival.
#2 7/2
#3 2/1 1.20
There is a curious anomaly here: #6 Amanacer de Oro is ranked #2 by Brisnet, which is normally a 4-1 play. The morning line is 30/1. He has good figs and a classy win at Evangeline (I know, I know.) I figure him as 15/1 here. So who's right? It will be interesting to see what the crowd says. The morning line was right, way out of it at 25-1.

OP Ten: The Arkansas Derby
#10 Oxbow has the class edge.
There's a 95% chance the race goes to one of these:
#4 Falling Sky 5/1. Three wins and proven in the Sam Davis.
#7 Texas Bling 7/1 (20/1 ML) Toss that sloppy Southwest.
#9 Overanalyse 5/2 Don't get too excited by gaudy speed figs. 3.70
#10 Oxbow 2/1 Last two races were ultra competitive. On the downside, Dee-Wayne is awful in big-time races.