Keeneland April 13

Our "A" picks in non-chaos races are returning 94%. That's much better than a bet on the favorite.
But there are no "A" picks in chaos races, and there are so many chaos races here. Chaos races are decided not by the dominance of one superior horse, by the luck of trip and pace.
The exotics are going to pay some wild, wild prices.

KEE Five
A chaos race. Min. bet 5/1
50-cent pick 3: 1-2-7-10-11 w 1-4-3 w 5-8 = $15
Chance of cashing: 76% x 73% x 55% = 31%
1: 8/1
2: 8/1
4: 12/1
7: 8/1
8: 12/1
9: 12/1
10: 5/1 2.10
11: 5/1

Kee Six
50-cent pick 3: 1-4-3 w 5-8 w 7-8-9 = $9
Chance of cashing: 73% x 55% x 36% = 14%
The race looks chalky. A 73% chance one of these 3 will win.
#1 2/1 (A)
#4 4/1
#3 6/1

Kee Seven: Shakertown G3
More chalk. A 55% chance that one of these will win.
#5 3/1 8.30
#8 2/1 (A)
Might get a bargain on these two.
Exacta box potential.
Both have run nicely at KEE.

Kee Eight: Madison G1
Chaos race
Many horses of equal ability.
An 86% chance one of these wins.
#1 10/1
#2 10/1
#3 10/1
#5 10/1 17.80
#7 8/1
#8 8/1
#9 8/1
#10 10/1

Kee Nine: Jenny Wiley G1
Another chaos race.
A 90% chance the winner is below.
#1 6/1 1.70
#2 12/1
#3 8/1
#5 8/1
#6 8/1
#7 8/1
#8 5/1
#9 12/1
Pick 3 $685 for  $128

Kee Ten: Blue Grass G1
Extreme chaos. Minimum bet 8/1
Throw handicapping out the window and go for an angle and a price. There's just too much talent here, and no dominant horse, so the lucky trip will win. Overall, low-price favorites sometimes will win chaos races, but the return will be poor. In a recent 400-race sample of chaos races, horses priced at 2-1 and under returned 83 cents on the dollar.
The comparable return for non-chaos races is 88 cents.
So you might as well take a shot.
One play here would be longshots in the win spot with the underpriced chalk horses underneath.
The horses below represent an 80% win chance.

#1 9/1 proven at Kee.
#3 12/1 huge maiden win at Kee.
#4 15/1 Just missed big race at Kee. 4.60
#5 8/1 Likely favorite, but first time poly.
#6 15/1 Would need dream trip after Spiral.
#7 9/1 Good Spiral, 4 wins on poly.
#9 12/1 Toss non-poly to see potential.
#10 15/1 Maiden buster would need perfect trip.
#13 20/1 Won last 3, Edgar a plus in routes.
#14 20/1 Rosie + Maker = a huge maybe.
Pick 3 $373 for $640 
Pick 4 $2356 for  $640

Kee Eleven
Another chaos race
An 88% chance one of these wins.
#1 9/1
#2 7/2 2.10
#3 9/1
#4 9/1
#6 9/1
#7 4/1
Pick 3  $81 for $480.